Football · England National League South · 26/09, 16:00

Prediction: Dag & Red vs Hampton & Richmond

Team pages: Dag & Red · Hampton & Richmond

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.92Total

Dag & Red2.01

Hampton & Richmond0.91

1X2

62% 23% 16%

Dag & Red Draw Hampton & Richmond

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Dag & Red 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWWWWLWDLL

Hampton & Richmond 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLWDLLWD

Head-to-head

Dag & Red 1–1 Hampton & Richmond (2 last)

Dag & Red3-1Hampton & Richmond
Hampton & Richmond2-1Dag & Red

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dag & Red 1525 · Hampton & Richmond 1445

	Dag & Red	Draw	Hampton & Richmond
Our model	62%	23%	15%
Market	62%	22%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.92 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dag & Red (rating 1525 vs 1445).
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dag & Red	Hampton & Richmond
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1	1.2 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 5.6	2.3 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.6	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.45

X4.00

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.02

2 (+1.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.45 → 1.45	Bet365 1.45
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
11:16 +1’	1.45	4.00	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Dag & Red 1–0–1 Hampton & Richmond

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 England National League South	Dag & Red	3-1 HT 3-0	Hampton & Richmond
23/08/25 England National League South	Hampton & Richmond	2-1 HT 0-0	Dag & Red

Standings · England National League South

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	9	6	1	2	17	9	19
2	Weston Super Mare	9	5	2	2	16	7	17
3	Dag & Red	9	5	1	3	9	7	16
4	Salisbury FC	9	4	3	2	16	7	15
5	Billericay Town	9	4	3	2	18	14	15
6	Tonbridge Angels	9	4	2	3	18	9	14
7	Truro City	8	4	2	2	11	4	14
8	Dover	9	4	2	3	15	16	14
9	Dorking Wanderers	9	3	4	2	18	13	13
10	Torquay	9	3	4	2	13	11	13
11	Farnham	8	4	1	3	11	10	13
12	Folkestone Invicta	8	3	3	2	15	9	12
13	Chesham	9	3	1	5	16	15	10
14	Chelmsford	8	1	7	0	9	8	10
15	Horsham	8	2	4	2	9	10	10
16	Hemel Hempstead	9	2	4	3	8	10	10
17	Maidenhead Utd	9	2	4	3	8	11	10
18	Braintree Town	8	3	1	4	13	18	10
19	AFC Totton	8	3	1	4	8	13	10
20	Farnborough	8	3	1	4	6	11	10
21	Hampton & Richmond	9	2	2	5	11	23	8
22	Ebbsfleet United	3	1	2	0	3	1	5
23	Slough	8	1	0	7	9	21	3
24	Walton & Hersham	8	0	1	7	4	24	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dag & Red	Hampton & Richmond
Weston Super Mare	0-1 L	0-3 L
Horsham	1-1 D	0-2 L
Slough	1-0 W	5-3 W
Torquay	2-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Dag & Red (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dag & Red

LWWWWLWDLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
08/09	Dover England National League South	0-1	0-1	11	2	L
05/09	Horsham England National League South	1-1	1-1	8	2	D
31/08	Slough England National League South	1-0	1-0	7	6	W
29/08	Truro City England National League South	0-1	0-3	4	5	L
22/08	Torquay England National League South	1-0	2-0	7	6	W
18/08	Walton & Hersham England National League South	0-0	2-0	8	1	W
14/08	Farnham England National League South	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
08/08	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
25/04	Slough England National League South	2-2	2-3	4	5	L

Hampton & Richmond

WLLLWDLLWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Chelmsford England National League South	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
08/09	Farnborough England National League South	1-0	2-0	2	3	W
05/09	AFC Totton England National League South	0-3	1-4	1	7	L
31/08	Maidstone Utd England National League South	0-1	1-4	7	3	L
29/08	Torquay England National League South	1-1	1-1	4	3	D
22/08	Slough England National League South	1-0	5-3	5	2	W
18/08	Horsham England National League South	0-1	0-2	2	9	L
15/08	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-1	0-3	5	3	L
08/08	Salisbury FC England National League South	0-1	0-5	9	4	L
25/04	Enfield Town England National League South	0-0	1-0	7	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dag & Red vs Hampton & Richmond?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Dag & Red win (62%). Probabilities: Dag & Red 62%, draw 23%, Hampton & Richmond 16%.

How many goals are expected in Dag & Red vs Hampton & Richmond?

The model expects 2.92 goals (Dag & Red 2.01 · Hampton & Richmond 0.91), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Dag & Red vs Hampton & Richmond?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.