Football · England National League South · 20/10, 20:45

Prediction: Ebbsfleet United vs Horsham

Team pages: Ebbsfleet United · Horsham

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.68Total

Ebbsfleet United1.85

Horsham0.83

1X2

61% 24% 15%

Ebbsfleet United Draw Horsham

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Ebbsfleet United 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

LWDDWDWWWW

Horsham 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWWLDDLDLW

Head-to-head

Ebbsfleet United 0–1–1 Horsham (2 last)

Horsham1-1Ebbsfleet United
Ebbsfleet United1-2Horsham

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ebbsfleet United 1563 · Horsham 1508

	Ebbsfleet United	Draw	Horsham
Our model	60%	24%	15%
Market	61%	24%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.68 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ebbsfleet United (rating 1563 vs 1508).
High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ebbsfleet United	Horsham
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.6	1.1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 6.6	2.9 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.2	5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.48

X3.80

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.00

2 (+1.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 11:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.45 → 1.48▲	Bet365 1.48
X	4.00 → 3.80▼	Pinn 4.23
2	5.75 → 5.75	Pinn 6.43 ★

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
12:10 +29’	1.45	4.00	5.75
22:02 +5’	1.40▼	4.00	6.50▲
01:59 +7’	1.33▼	4.20▲	7.50▲
11:02 +2’	1.48▲	3.80▼	5.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:28 +39’	1.35	4.73	8.04
10:26 +38’	1.45▲	4.22▼	6.52▼
15:48 +19’	1.46▲	4.19▼	6.41▼
18:33 +32’	1.46▼	4.23▲	6.43▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ebbsfleet United 0–1–1 Horsham

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/02/26 England National League South	Horsham	1-1 HT 1-0	Ebbsfleet United
25/11/25 England National League South	Ebbsfleet United	1-2 HT 0-1	Horsham

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	12	8	1	3	22	13	25
2	Ebbsfleet United	9	6	3	0	20	4	21
3	Salisbury FC	11	6	3	2	20	8	21
4	Billericay Town	11	6	3	2	25	14	21
5	Truro City	11	6	3	2	17	8	21
6	Tonbridge Angels	12	6	2	4	21	11	20
7	Dag & Red	12	6	2	4	10	9	20
8	Weston Super Mare	12	5	3	4	20	17	18
9	Dover	11	5	3	3	18	17	18
10	Dorking Wanderers	11	4	5	2	23	17	17
11	Farnham	11	5	2	4	17	16	17
12	Folkestone Invicta	12	4	4	4	18	14	16
13	Torquay	11	4	4	3	18	15	16
14	Chelmsford	10	2	8	0	14	8	14
15	Horsham	11	3	5	3	12	13	14
16	Hemel Hempstead	12	3	5	4	10	11	14
17	Farnborough	11	4	2	5	10	17	14
18	Maidenhead Utd	12	3	4	5	13	14	13
19	Chesham	11	3	1	7	16	24	10
20	Braintree Town	11	3	1	7	18	27	10
21	AFC Totton	12	3	1	8	9	23	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	11	2	2	7	11	26	8
23	Walton & Hersham	11	2	2	7	10	27	8
24	Slough	12	1	1	10	12	31	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ebbsfleet United	Horsham
Hampton & Richmond	2-0 W	2-0 W
Folkestone Invicta	1-0 W	1-1 D
Slough	1-1 D	2-1 W
Salisbury FC	1-1 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 0 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ebbsfleet United

LWDDWDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Weston Super Mare England National League South	4-0	6-1	10	5	W
13/10	AFC Totton England National League South	0-0	5-0	5	5	W
10/10	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	0-0	2-0	6	2	W
06/10	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	1-0	1-0	8	1	W
29/09	Slough England National League South	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
26/09	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	2-1	2-1	6	6	W
12/09	Salisbury FC England National League South	0-1	1-1	8	3	D
08/09	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
05/09	Walton & Hersham England National League South	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
25/04	Worthing England National League South	0-1	0-2	4	2	L

Horsham

DWWLDDLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Slough England National League South	1-1	2-1	3	6	W
10/10	Maidstone Utd England National League South	0-1	1-2	7	6	L
26/09	Chelmsford England National League South	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
12/09	Chesham England National League South	0-1	1-4	2	11	L
08/09	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
05/09	Dag & Red England National League South	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
29/08	Farnham England National League South	1-2	1-2	13	4	L
22/08	Braintree Town England National League South	1-0	2-1	9	2	W
18/08	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	1-0	2-0	7	9	W
15/08	Salisbury FC England National League South	0-0	0-0	5	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ebbsfleet United vs Horsham?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ebbsfleet United win (61%). Probabilities: Ebbsfleet United 61%, draw 24%, Horsham 15%.

How many goals are expected in Ebbsfleet United vs Horsham?

The model expects 2.68 goals (Ebbsfleet United 1.85 · Horsham 0.83), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Ebbsfleet United vs Horsham?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.