Football · England National League South · 28/10, 20:45

Prediction: Farnborough vs Weston Super Mare

Team pages: Farnborough · Weston Super Mare

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.94Total

Farnborough1.38

Weston Super Mare1.55

1X2

33% 26% 41%

Farnborough Draw Weston Super Mare

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Farnborough 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WDWLLLDLWL

Weston Super Mare 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLWDLWWLDL

Head-to-head

Farnborough 2–4 Weston Super Mare (6 last)

Weston Super Mare4-1Farnborough
Farnborough1-3Weston Super Mare
Farnborough2-1Weston Super Mare
Weston Super Mare4-3Farnborough
Weston Super Mare0-3Farnborough
Farnborough0-1Weston Super Mare

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Farnborough 1450 · Weston Super Mare 1500

	Farnborough	Draw	Weston Super Mare
Our model	33%	27%	40%
Market	33%	26%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.94 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Weston Super Mare (rating 1450 vs 1500).
H2H favours Weston Super Mare: 4-0-2.
High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Farnborough	Weston Super Mare
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.6	1.4 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.9	0.4 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 7	2.4 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0.2	3.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.50

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:10 +20’	2.70	3.50	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Farnborough 2–0–4 Weston Super Mare

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/01/26 England National League South	Weston Super Mare	4-1 HT 1-0	Farnborough
25/08/25 England National League South	Farnborough	1-3 HT 0-0	Weston Super Mare
01/03/25 England National League South	Farnborough	2-1 HT 2-1	Weston Super Mare
23/11/24 England National League South	Weston Super Mare	4-3 HT 1-1	Farnborough
26/03/24 England National League South	Weston Super Mare	0-3 HT 0-2	Farnborough
30/09/23 England FA Cup Qualification	Farnborough	0-1	Weston Super Mare

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	13	8	2	3	23	14	26
2	Ebbsfleet United	11	7	4	0	26	6	25
3	Truro City	12	7	3	2	21	11	24
4	Dag & Red	13	7	2	4	12	9	23
5	Salisbury FC	12	6	4	2	21	9	22
6	Billericay Town	11	6	3	2	25	14	21
7	Tonbridge Angels	13	6	3	4	24	14	21
8	Dorking Wanderers	12	5	5	2	26	18	20
9	Farnham	12	6	2	4	23	16	20
10	Folkestone Invicta	13	5	4	4	20	14	19
11	Dover	12	5	4	3	19	18	19
12	Weston Super Mare	12	5	3	4	20	17	18
13	Horsham	13	4	6	3	15	15	18
14	Torquay	12	4	5	3	19	16	17
15	Chelmsford	11	2	9	0	17	11	15
16	Hemel Hempstead	13	3	5	5	11	14	14
17	Farnborough	12	4	2	6	10	19	14
18	Maidenhead Utd	13	3	4	6	13	18	13
19	AFC Totton	13	4	1	8	12	24	13
20	Chesham	12	3	1	8	16	26	10
21	Braintree Town	12	3	1	8	18	33	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	12	2	2	8	14	30	8
23	Walton & Hersham	12	2	2	8	10	28	8
24	Slough	13	1	1	11	13	34	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Farnborough	Weston Super Mare
Folkestone Invicta	0-2 L	1-1 D
Dag & Red	2-0 W	1-0 W
Dover	0-1 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Farnborough

WDWLLLDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
17/10	Dag & Red England National League South	0-0	2-0	7	4	W
10/10	Billericay Town England National League South	0-2	0-4	8	2	L
26/09	Walton & Hersham England National League South	1-1	2-2	3	4	D
12/09	Dover England National League South	0-1	0-1	8	2	L
08/09	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
05/09	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	0-2	0-4	10	3	L
31/08	Braintree Town England National League South	0-0	2-0	6	2	W
22/08	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
19/08	Chesham England National League South	0-0	1-0	9	0	W

Weston Super Mare

DLWDLWWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	0-4	1-6	3	5	L
10/10	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	0-1	1-1	9	1	D
26/09	Farnham England National League South	1-3	2-3	5	3	L
12/09	Dag & Red England National League South	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
08/09	AFC Totton England National League South	2-0	3-1	9	4	W
05/09	Maidstone Utd England National League South	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
31/08	Chelmsford England National League South	0-0	1-1	1	3	D
29/08	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	0-1	3-1	4	3	W
22/08	Dover England National League South	1-1	2-3	10	1	L
18/08	Torquay England National League South	0-0	0-0	2	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Farnborough vs Weston Super Mare?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Weston Super Mare win (41%). Probabilities: Farnborough 33%, draw 26%, Weston Super Mare 41%.

How many goals are expected in Farnborough vs Weston Super Mare?

The model expects 2.94 goals (Farnborough 1.38 · Weston Super Mare 1.55), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Farnborough vs Weston Super Mare?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.