Football · England National League South · 27/10, 20:45

Prediction: Walton & Hersham vs Salisbury FC

Team pages: Walton & Hersham · Salisbury FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.16Total

Walton & Hersham1.12

Salisbury FC2.03

1X2

20% 22% 58%

Walton & Hersham Draw Salisbury FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Walton & Hersham 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLLDDWWL

Salisbury FC 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LLWDWDWWWD

Head-to-head

Walton & Hersham 1–1 Salisbury FC (2 last)

Walton & Hersham1-0Salisbury FC
Salisbury FC1-0Walton & Hersham

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Walton & Hersham 1442 · Salisbury FC 1586

	Walton & Hersham	Draw	Salisbury FC
Our model	20%	23%	57%
Market	21%	21%	59%

Estimated total (ours) 3.16 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Salisbury FC (rating 1442 vs 1586).
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Walton & Hersham	Salisbury FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2	1.6 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.9	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.7	2.9 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.2	2.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

14.33

X4.33

21.53

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.90

2 (-1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:10 +11’	4.33	4.33	1.53

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Walton & Hersham 1–0–1 Salisbury FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/12/23 England Southern Premier League South	Walton & Hersham	1-0 HT 1-0	Salisbury FC
09/09/23 England Southern Premier League South	Salisbury FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Walton & Hersham

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	13	8	2	3	23	14	26
2	Ebbsfleet United	11	7	4	0	26	6	25
3	Truro City	12	7	3	2	21	11	24
4	Dag & Red	13	7	2	4	12	9	23
5	Salisbury FC	12	6	4	2	21	9	22
6	Billericay Town	11	6	3	2	25	14	21
7	Tonbridge Angels	13	6	3	4	24	14	21
8	Dorking Wanderers	12	5	5	2	26	18	20
9	Farnham	12	6	2	4	23	16	20
10	Folkestone Invicta	13	5	4	4	20	14	19
11	Dover	12	5	4	3	19	18	19
12	Weston Super Mare	12	5	3	4	20	17	18
13	Horsham	13	4	6	3	15	15	18
14	Torquay	12	4	5	3	19	16	17
15	Chelmsford	11	2	9	0	17	11	15
16	Hemel Hempstead	13	3	5	5	11	14	14
17	Farnborough	12	4	2	6	10	19	14
18	Maidenhead Utd	13	3	4	6	13	18	13
19	AFC Totton	13	4	1	8	12	24	13
20	Chesham	12	3	1	8	16	26	10
21	Braintree Town	12	3	1	8	18	33	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	12	2	2	8	14	30	8
23	Walton & Hersham	12	2	2	8	10	28	8
24	Slough	13	1	1	11	13	34	4

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Walton & Hersham	Salisbury FC
Truro City	1-1 D	1-0 W
Ebbsfleet United	0-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Salisbury FC (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Walton & Hersham

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Horsham England National League South	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
10/10	AFC Totton England National League South	0-0	1-0	4	1	W
06/10	Braintree Town England National League South	1-1	3-1	2	5	W
26/09	Farnborough England National League South	1-1	2-2	2	4	D
12/09	Truro City England National League South	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
05/09	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
31/08	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	0-3	1-5	4	2	L
29/08	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	1-2	1-4	7	3	L
22/08	Chesham England National League South	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
18/08	Dag & Red England National League South	0-0	0-2	1	1	L

Salisbury FC

LLWDWDWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Dover England National League South	0-0	1-1	7	3	D
10/10	Farnham England National League South	0-1	2-1	8	3	W
26/09	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	2-0	2-0	9	0	W
15/09	Truro City England National League South	1-0	1-0	1	2	W
12/09	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
08/09	Slough England National League South	2-1	5-1	3	3	W
05/09	Chelmsford England National League South	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
31/08	Billericay Town England National League South	0-0	1-0	10	4	W
29/08	Maidstone Utd England National League South	1-1	1-2	4	6	L
22/08	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	1-0	1-2	3	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Walton & Hersham vs Salisbury FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Salisbury FC win (58%). Probabilities: Walton & Hersham 20%, draw 22%, Salisbury FC 58%.

How many goals are expected in Walton & Hersham vs Salisbury FC?

The model expects 3.16 goals (Walton & Hersham 1.12 · Salisbury FC 2.03), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Walton & Hersham vs Salisbury FC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.