Football · England National League South · 27/10, 20:45

Prediction: Maidenhead Utd vs Horsham

Team pages: Maidenhead Utd · Horsham

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

Maidenhead Utd1.55

Horsham1.25

1X2

44% 27% 30%

Maidenhead Utd Draw Horsham

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Maidenhead Utd 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLDWLDWLLL

Horsham 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WLDDLDLWDW

Head-to-head

Maidenhead Utd 2–0 Horsham (2 last)

Horsham1-2Maidenhead Utd
Maidenhead Utd2-1Horsham

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Maidenhead Utd 1467 · Horsham 1507

	Maidenhead Utd	Draw	Horsham
Our model	43%	27%	29%
Market	44%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Horsham (rating 1467 vs 1507).
H2H favours Maidenhead Utd: 2-0-0.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Maidenhead Utd	Horsham
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.6	1.2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.9	3.3 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.5	4.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.40

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
14:17 +5’	2.05	3.40	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Maidenhead Utd 2–0–0 Horsham

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/01/26 England National League South	Horsham	1-2 HT 1-0	Maidenhead Utd
25/08/25 England National League South	Maidenhead Utd	2-1 HT 0-1	Horsham

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	13	8	2	3	23	14	26
2	Ebbsfleet United	11	7	4	0	26	6	25
3	Truro City	12	7	3	2	21	11	24
4	Dag & Red	13	7	2	4	12	9	23
5	Salisbury FC	12	6	4	2	21	9	22
6	Billericay Town	11	6	3	2	25	14	21
7	Tonbridge Angels	13	6	3	4	24	14	21
8	Dorking Wanderers	12	5	5	2	26	18	20
9	Farnham	12	6	2	4	23	16	20
10	Folkestone Invicta	13	5	4	4	20	14	19
11	Dover	12	5	4	3	19	18	19
12	Weston Super Mare	12	5	3	4	20	17	18
13	Horsham	13	4	6	3	15	15	18
14	Torquay	12	4	5	3	19	16	17
15	Chelmsford	11	2	9	0	17	11	15
16	Hemel Hempstead	13	3	5	5	11	14	14
17	Farnborough	12	4	2	6	10	19	14
18	Maidenhead Utd	13	3	4	6	13	18	13
19	AFC Totton	13	4	1	8	12	24	13
20	Chesham	12	3	1	8	16	26	10
21	Braintree Town	12	3	1	8	18	33	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	12	2	2	8	14	30	8
23	Walton & Hersham	12	2	2	8	10	28	8
24	Slough	13	1	1	11	13	34	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Maidenhead Utd	Horsham
Ebbsfleet United	0-4 L	2-2 D
Maidstone Utd	1-2 L	1-2 L
Chesham	4-0 W	1-4 L
Chelmsford	0-1 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	0 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Horsham (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Maidenhead Utd

DLDWLDWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	0-2	0-4	2	4	L
17/10	Maidstone Utd England National League South	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
10/10	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	0-0	0-1	5	9	L
26/09	Chesham England National League South	1-0	4-0	5	5	W
12/09	Billericay Town England National League South	1-1	2-2	10	2	D
08/09	Torquay England National League South	0-0	0-4	2	9	L
05/09	Dover England National League South	1-0	3-0	13	5	W
31/08	AFC Totton England National League South	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
29/08	Chelmsford England National League South	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
22/08	Farnborough England National League South	1-1	1-1	3	3	D

Horsham

WLDDLDLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Walton & Hersham England National League South	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
20/10	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	1-0	2-2	5	5	D
17/10	Slough England National League South	1-1	2-1	3	6	W
10/10	Maidstone Utd England National League South	0-1	1-2	7	6	L
26/09	Chelmsford England National League South	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
12/09	Chesham England National League South	0-1	1-4	2	11	L
08/09	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
05/09	Dag & Red England National League South	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
29/08	Farnham England National League South	1-2	1-2	13	4	L
22/08	Braintree Town England National League South	1-0	2-1	9	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Maidenhead Utd vs Horsham?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Maidenhead Utd win (44%). Probabilities: Maidenhead Utd 44%, draw 27%, Horsham 30%.

How many goals are expected in Maidenhead Utd vs Horsham?

The model expects 2.8 goals (Maidenhead Utd 1.55 · Horsham 1.25), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Maidenhead Utd vs Horsham?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.