Football · Scotland Premiership · 11/10, 13:00

Prediction: Motherwell vs Celtic

Team pages: Motherwell · Celtic

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.35Total

Motherwell1.16

Celtic2.18

1X2

18% 22% 60%

Motherwell Draw Celtic

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Motherwell 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLWWDDWLLL

Celtic 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWWL

Head-to-head

Motherwell 1–5 Celtic (6 last)

Motherwell2-3Celtic
Celtic3-1Motherwell
Motherwell2-0Celtic
Celtic3-2Motherwell
Motherwell1-3Celtic
Celtic4-0Motherwell

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Motherwell 1465 · Celtic 1579

	Motherwell	Draw	Celtic
Our model	19%	22%	60%
Market	18%	22%	60%

Estimated total (ours) 3.35 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Celtic (rating 1465 vs 1579).
H2H favours Celtic: 5-0-1.
High corners: 12.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Motherwell	Celtic
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.5	2.3 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.9	1.1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.9	4.1 / 7.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.2	4.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

15.00

X4.20

21.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.93

2 (-1)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.93

Under 3.251.93

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
X	4.20 → 4.20	Pinn 4.61 ★
2	1.55 → 1.55	Pinn 1.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.3% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:48 +1’	5.00	4.20	1.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:20 +688’	4.46	4.61	1.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Motherwell 1–0–5 Celtic

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/05/26 Scotland Premiership	Motherwell	2-3 HT 1-1	Celtic
14/03/26 Scotland Premiership	Celtic	3-1 HT 1-1	Motherwell
30/12/25 Scotland Premiership	Motherwell	2-0 HT 1-0	Celtic
05/10/25 Scotland Premiership	Celtic	3-2 HT 1-1	Motherwell
02/02/25 Scotland Premiership	Motherwell	1-3 HT 1-2	Celtic
26/12/24 Scotland Premiership	Celtic	4-0 HT 1-0	Motherwell

Standings · Scotland Premiership

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Celtic	7	6	0	1	14	4	18
2	Rangers	7	5	1	1	8	4	16
3	Hearts	7	4	1	2	14	8	13
4	Dundee	7	3	1	3	9	7	10
5	St Mirren	7	3	1	3	8	9	10
6	St Johnstone	7	2	2	3	9	10	8
7	Aberdeen	7	2	2	3	7	8	8
8	Motherwell	7	2	2	3	9	11	8
9	Dundee Utd	7	2	2	3	9	11	8
10	Hibernian	7	2	1	4	8	11	7
11	Falkirk	7	1	3	3	6	9	6
12	Kilmarnock	7	1	2	4	6	15	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Motherwell	Celtic
Dundee	1-2 L	1-0 W
Aberdeen	0-4 L	3-0 W
Rangers	0-1 L	0-1 L
St Mirren	3-3 D	2-1 W
Falkirk	0-0 D	2-1 W
Hearts	1-1 D	3-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 3 L	5 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Celtic (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Motherwell

DLWWDDWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Dundee Scotland Premiership	1-2	1-2	9	2	L
15/09	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-4	5	5	L
05/09	Rangers Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-1	5	0	L
02/09	Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership	1-0	3-0	9	2	W
30/08	St Mirren Scotland Premiership	2-3	3-3	7	4	D
09/08	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
02/08	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
16/05	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-0	4	10	W
13/05	Celtic Scotland Premiership	1-1	2-3	4	3	L
09/05	Hearts Scotland Premiership	1-1	1-1	2	4	D

Celtic

WWWWWWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Rangers Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-1	8	5	L
09/09	St Johnstone Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-0	11	4	W
05/09	St Mirren Scotland Premiership	0-1	2-1	10	3	W
02/09	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	3-0	3-0	15	2	W
29/08	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	2-0	2-1	6	5	W
09/08	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	3-0	5-1	7	1	W
03/08	Dundee Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-0	9	2	W
16/05	Hearts Scotland Premiership	1-1	3-1	9	9	W
13/05	Motherwell Scotland Premiership	1-1	3-2	3	3	W
10/05	Rangers Scotland Premiership	1-1	3-1	1	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Motherwell vs Celtic?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Celtic win (60%). Probabilities: Motherwell 18%, draw 22%, Celtic 60%.

How many goals are expected in Motherwell vs Celtic?

The model expects 3.35 goals (Motherwell 1.16 · Celtic 2.18), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Motherwell vs Celtic?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.