Football · Scotland Premiership · 17/10, 16:00

Prediction: Aberdeen vs St Mirren

Team pages: Aberdeen · St Mirren

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.71Total

Aberdeen1.65

St Mirren1.06

1X2

51% 26% 24%

Aberdeen Draw St Mirren

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Aberdeen 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLDWDL

St Mirren 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDWWDWLLLL

Head-to-head

Aberdeen 1–1–4 St Mirren (6 last)

Aberdeen0-2St Mirren
St Mirren2-0Aberdeen
Aberdeen3-3St Mirren
St Mirren0-1Aberdeen
St Mirren1-0Aberdeen
Aberdeen0-3St Mirren

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aberdeen 1493 · St Mirren 1469

	Aberdeen	Draw	St Mirren
Our model	50%	27%	23%
Market	51%	25%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.71 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours St Mirren: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Aberdeen	St Mirren
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.4	1.1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.7	2.5 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.70

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Pinn 1.85
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.14 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.2% Pinnacle margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
01:08 +7’	1.83	3.70	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:11 +52’	1.83	3.65	4.08
16:11 +130’	1.85▲	3.70▲	4.14▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Aberdeen 1–1–4 St Mirren

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/05/26 Scotland Premiership	Aberdeen	0-2 HT 0-1	St Mirren
04/04/26 Scotland Premiership	St Mirren	2-0 HT 1-0	Aberdeen
03/12/25 Scotland Premiership	Aberdeen	3-3 HT 0-0	St Mirren
18/10/25 Scotland Premiership	St Mirren	0-1 HT 0-0	Aberdeen
03/05/25 Scotland Premiership	St Mirren	1-0 HT 0-0	Aberdeen
25/01/25 Scotland Premiership	Aberdeen	0-3 HT 0-2	St Mirren

Standings · Scotland Premiership

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Rangers	8	6	1	1	11	5	19
2	Celtic	7	6	0	1	14	4	18
3	Hearts	8	5	1	2	19	8	16
4	Dundee	8	4	1	3	11	8	13
5	Dundee Utd	8	3	2	3	10	11	11
6	St Mirren	8	3	1	4	8	14	10
7	St Johnstone	7	2	2	3	9	10	8
8	Aberdeen	7	2	2	3	7	8	8
9	Motherwell	7	2	2	3	9	11	8
10	Hibernian	8	2	1	5	8	12	7
11	Falkirk	8	1	3	4	7	11	6
12	Kilmarnock	8	1	2	5	7	18	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aberdeen	St Mirren
St Johnstone	0-1 L	1-0 W
Motherwell	4-0 W	3-3 D
Kilmarnock	0-0 D	1-0 W
Celtic	0-3 L	1-2 L
Rangers	0-1 L	0-1 L
Hearts	2-1 W	0-5 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: St Mirren (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aberdeen

LLWLLLDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	St Johnstone Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-1	13	0	L
19/09	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-1	9	4	D
15/09	Motherwell Scotland Premiership	1-0	4-0	2	5	W
05/09	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-0	6	8	D
02/09	Celtic Scotland Premiership	0-3	0-3	5	2	L
30/08	Rangers Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-1	6	9	L
08/08	Dundee Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
01/08	Hearts Scotland Premiership	0-1	2-1	4	6	W
17/05	Dundee Scotland Premiership	2-1	2-3	2	0	L
12/05	St Mirren Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-2	6	3	L

St Mirren

WDWWDWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Hearts Scotland Premiership	0-2	0-5	2	5	L
19/09	Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership	0-3	0-3	4	4	L
09/09	Rangers Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-1	0	2	L
05/09	Celtic Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-2	6	3	L
02/09	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
30/08	Motherwell Scotland Premiership	3-2	3-3	7	4	D
08/08	St Johnstone Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
01/08	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-0	7	4	W
17/05	Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership	0-1	1-1	10	2	D
12/05	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-0	1	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aberdeen vs St Mirren?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Aberdeen win (51%). Probabilities: Aberdeen 51%, draw 26%, St Mirren 24%.

How many goals are expected in Aberdeen vs St Mirren?

The model expects 2.71 goals (Aberdeen 1.65 · St Mirren 1.06), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Aberdeen vs St Mirren?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.