Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B · 01/10, 22:30

Prediction: Cumbaya vs Deportivo Santo Domingo

Team pages: Cumbaya · Deportivo Santo Domingo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.19Total

Cumbaya1.38

Deportivo Santo Domingo0.81

1X2

49% 29% 21%

Cumbaya Draw Deportivo Santo Domingo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Cumbaya 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DDDDLDLLWW

Deportivo Santo Domingo 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDWDDWWLWL

Head-to-head

Cumbaya 1–3–2 Deportivo Santo Domingo (6 last)

CD Vargas Torres2-1Cumbaya
Cumbaya3-3CD Vargas Torres
CD Vargas Torres0-0Cumbaya
CD Vargas Torres4-1Cumbaya
Cumbaya1-1CD Vargas Torres
Cumbaya2-1CD Vargas Torres

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cumbaya 1498 · Deportivo Santo Domingo 1522

	Cumbaya	Draw	Deportivo Santo Domingo
Our model	49%	30%	21%
Market	50%	28%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.19 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Deportivo Santo Domingo: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cumbaya	Deportivo Santo Domingo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1	1 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.2 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	13/75/13%	11/67/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.3	1.7 / 2.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.3	4.2 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.20

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 21.95

Under 21.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Pinn 1.88 ★
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.28

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:59 +17’	1.80	3.20	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:38 +27’	1.88	3.05	4.28

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cumbaya 1–3–2 Deportivo Santo Domingo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/09/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	CD Vargas Torres	2-1 HT 0-0	Cumbaya
13/08/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	Cumbaya	3-3 HT 2-1	CD Vargas Torres
23/05/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	CD Vargas Torres	0-0 HT 0-0	Cumbaya
30/10/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	CD Vargas Torres	4-1 HT 0-1	Cumbaya
26/08/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	Cumbaya	1-1 HT 1-0	CD Vargas Torres
22/07/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	Cumbaya	2-1 HT 2-0	CD Vargas Torres

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B · Serie B 2026, Relegation Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gualaceo SC	27	11	9	7	27	16	36
2	LDU Portoviejo	27	9	9	9	22	24	36
3	CD Vargas Torres	27	9	10	8	23	19	34
4	Cumbaya	27	7	12	8	33	26	33
5	El Nacional	27	3	6	18	18	41	12
6	22 de Julio	27	4	4	19	13	49	10

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cumbaya	Deportivo Santo Domingo
El Nacional	3-0 W	1-0 W
22 de Julio	7-1 W	3-0 W
Gualaceo SC	0-1 L	0-1 L
LDU Portoviejo	0-0 D	0-1 L
Atletico FC Guayaquil	0-3 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Cumbaya (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cumbaya

DDDDLDLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	El Nacional Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	–	3-0	4	5	W
17/09	22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	–	7-1	–	–	W
10/09	Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
04/09	CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	1-2	2	6	L
26/08	LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
20/08	Atletico FC Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-3	0-3	5	3	L
13/08	CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	2-1	3-3	3	4	D
08/08	LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
30/07	CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
22/07	San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	5	5	D

Deportivo Santo Domingo

LDWDDWWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
18/09	El Nacional Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
11/09	LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
04/09	Cumbaya Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	2-1	4	6	W
27/08	22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-0	3-0	3	2	W
22/08	Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	–	0-0	–	–	D
13/08	Cumbaya Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-2	3-3	2	4	D
06/08	Atletico FC Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
30/07	Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
25/07	LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-1	1	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cumbaya vs Deportivo Santo Domingo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cumbaya win (49%). Probabilities: Cumbaya 49%, draw 29%, Deportivo Santo Domingo 21%.

How many goals are expected in Cumbaya vs Deportivo Santo Domingo?

The model expects 2.19 goals (Cumbaya 1.38 · Deportivo Santo Domingo 0.81), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Cumbaya vs Deportivo Santo Domingo?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.