Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B · 02/10, 22:30

Prediction: CD Cuenca Jrs vs Independiente Juniors

Team pages: CD Cuenca Jrs · Independiente Juniors

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.18Total

CD Cuenca Jrs1.11

Independiente Juniors1.08

1X2

35% 31% 34%

CD Cuenca Jrs Draw Independiente Juniors

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Cuenca Jrs 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DDLWLDLLWL

Independiente Juniors 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDDDWLDL

Head-to-head

CD Cuenca Jrs 1–2 Independiente Juniors (3 last)

Independiente Juniors1-0CD Cuenca Jrs
Independiente Juniors4-0CD Cuenca Jrs
CD Cuenca Jrs2-1Independiente Juniors

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Cuenca Jrs 1448 · Independiente Juniors 1518

	CD Cuenca Jrs	Draw	Independiente Juniors
Our model	35%	32%	33%
Market	36%	30%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.18 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente Juniors (rating 1448 vs 1518).
H2H favours Independiente Juniors: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Cuenca Jrs	Independiente Juniors
Goals for / against (FT)	0.3 / 1.1	1.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	11/33/56%	22/78/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 2.7	1.5 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0	5.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.00

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 21.93

Under 21.88

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
16:41 +13’	2.50	3.00	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Cuenca Jrs 1–0–2 Independiente Juniors

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/09/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	Independiente Juniors	1-0 HT 1-0	CD Cuenca Jrs
10/06/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	Independiente Juniors	4-0 HT 3-0	CD Cuenca Jrs
10/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	CD Cuenca Jrs	2-1 HT 1-1	Independiente Juniors

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B · Serie B 2026, Promotion Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vinotinto Ecuador	27	13	7	7	36	21	46
2	Atletico FC Guayaquil	27	11	13	3	33	18	46
3	Club 9 de Octubre	27	11	12	4	31	19	45
4	Independiente Juniors	27	11	11	5	33	23	44
5	CD Cuenca Jrs	27	10	8	9	22	29	38
6	San Antonio FC Cotacachi	27	7	11	9	26	32	32

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Cuenca Jrs	Independiente Juniors
Atletico FC Guayaquil	0-2 L	1-1 D
San Antonio FC Cotacachi	1-0 W	0-0 D
Vinotinto Ecuador	0-2 L	2-3 L
Club 9 de Octubre	1-1 D	1-3 L
Gualaceo SC	0-3 L	3-2 W
22 de Julio	1-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Independiente Juniors (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Cuenca Jrs

DDLWLDLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/09	Atletico FC Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-2	0-2	3	3	L
16/09	San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
11/09	Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-2	0-2	3	7	L
04/09	Independiente Juniors Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-1	0-1	2	4	L
28/08	Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-0	1-1	1	9	D
20/08	Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-1	0-3	1	7	L
14/08	22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	–	1-0	–	–	W
08/08	Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-1	0-2	1	2	L
30/07	Cumbaya Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
24/07	Atletico FC Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	4	4	D

Independiente Juniors

WWWDDDWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/09	Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-1	2-3	4	8	L
17/09	Atletico FC Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	1-1	3	8	D
12/09	Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-1	1-3	1	6	L
04/09	CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-0	1-0	7	4	W
27/08	San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
20/08	El Nacional Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
15/08	Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	–	2-2	–	–	D
06/08	22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
01/08	Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-1	3-2	3	7	W
23/07	Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	2-0	3	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Cuenca Jrs vs Independiente Juniors?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Cuenca Jrs win (35%). Probabilities: CD Cuenca Jrs 35%, draw 31%, Independiente Juniors 34%.

How many goals are expected in CD Cuenca Jrs vs Independiente Juniors?

The model expects 2.18 goals (CD Cuenca Jrs 1.11 · Independiente Juniors 1.08), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Cuenca Jrs vs Independiente Juniors?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.