Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B · 26/09, 02:00
Prediction: El Nacional vs Cumbaya
Team pages: El Nacional · Cumbaya
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.36Total
El Nacional1.22
Cumbaya1.14
1X2
El Nacional
Draw
Cumbaya
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
El Nacional
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Cumbaya
1-6-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
El Nacional
1–1–4
Cumbaya
(6 last)
- El Nacional0-1Cumbaya
- Cumbaya2-1El Nacional
- El Nacional2-1Cumbaya
- Cumbaya1-0El Nacional
- El Nacional2-2Cumbaya
- Cumbaya2-0El Nacional
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cumbaya (rating 1458 vs 1500).
- H2H favours Cumbaya: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| El Nacional | Cumbaya | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.1 | 1.1 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.5 | 0.2 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 11/78/11% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 4.1 | 2.7 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.2 | 4.4 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · El Nacional 1–1–4 Cumbaya
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | El Nacional | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Cumbaya |
| 24/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | Cumbaya | 2-1 HT 2-0 | El Nacional |
| 15/09/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | El Nacional | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Cumbaya |
| 31/03/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Cumbaya | 1-0 HT 0-0 | El Nacional |
| 26/08/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | El Nacional | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Cumbaya |
| 02/04/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Cumbaya | 2-0 HT 2-0 | El Nacional |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B · Serie B 2026, Relegation Round
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LDU Portoviejo | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 22 | 24 | 36 |
| 2 | CD Vargas Torres | 26 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 23 | 18 | 34 |
| 3 | Gualaceo SC | 26 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 26 | 16 | 33 |
| 4 | Cumbaya | 26 | 6 | 12 | 8 | 30 | 26 | 30 |
| 5 | El Nacional | 26 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 18 | 38 | 12 |
| 6 | 22 de Julio | 27 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 13 | 49 | 10 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | El Nacional | Cumbaya |
|---|---|---|
| CD Vargas Torres | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| 22 de Julio | 3-0 W | 7-1 W |
| LDU Portoviejo | 0-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Gualaceo SC | 0-3 L | 0-1 L |
| San Antonio FC Cotacachi | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Club 9 de Octubre | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 4 L | 1 W 3 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Cumbaya (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
El Nacional
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09 | CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 12/09 | 22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 05/09 | LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 29/08 | Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 20/08 | Independiente Juniors Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 13/08 | San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 06/08 | Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 31/07 | 22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 24/07 | Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 15/07 | Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
Cumbaya
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09 | 22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
– | 7-1 | – | – | W |
| 10/09 | Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 04/09 | CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 26/08 | LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 20/08 | Atletico FC Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-3 | 0-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 13/08 | CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
2-1 | 3-3 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 08/08 | LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 30/07 | CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 22/07 | San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 16/07 | Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in El Nacional vs Cumbaya?
According to our model, the most likely result is a El Nacional win (37%). Probabilities: El Nacional 37%, draw 31%, Cumbaya 33%.
How many goals are expected in El Nacional vs Cumbaya?
The model expects 2.36 goals (El Nacional 1.22 · Cumbaya 1.14), with a 57% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in El Nacional vs Cumbaya?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.