Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B · 03/10, 20:00

Prediction: Club 9 de Octubre vs Atletico FC Guayaquil

Team pages: Club 9 de Octubre · Atletico FC Guayaquil

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.89Total

Club 9 de Octubre1.2

Atletico FC Guayaquil0.69

1X2

48% 31% 21%

Club 9 de Octubre Draw Atletico FC Guayaquil

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 57% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

1-0 17%

Recent form · 10 last

Club 9 de Octubre 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

WDLDDDDWLW

Atletico FC Guayaquil 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DWLDWLDWDW

Head-to-head

Club 9 de Octubre 0–2–1 Atletico FC Guayaquil (3 last)

Atletico FC Guayaquil2-2Club 9 de Octubre
Atletico FC Guayaquil0-0Club 9 de Octubre
Club 9 de Octubre1-2Atletico FC Guayaquil

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Club 9 de Octubre 1509 · Atletico FC Guayaquil 1541

	Club 9 de Octubre	Draw	Atletico FC Guayaquil
Our model	47%	33%	20%
Market	49%	29%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 1.89 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Club 9 de Octubre	Atletico FC Guayaquil
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.8	1.2 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/56/22%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.3	1.7 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.9 / 0.6	4.4 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.10

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 21.98

Under 21.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 1.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
19:10 +28’	1.83	3.10	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Club 9 de Octubre 0–2–1 Atletico FC Guayaquil

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/09/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	Atletico FC Guayaquil	2-2 HT 1-0	Club 9 de Octubre
03/06/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	Atletico FC Guayaquil	0-0 HT 0-0	Club 9 de Octubre
04/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	Club 9 de Octubre	1-2 HT 1-2	Atletico FC Guayaquil

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B · Serie B 2026, Promotion Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vinotinto Ecuador	27	13	7	7	36	21	46
2	Atletico FC Guayaquil	27	11	13	3	33	18	46
3	Club 9 de Octubre	27	11	12	4	31	19	45
4	Independiente Juniors	27	11	11	5	33	23	44
5	CD Cuenca Jrs	27	10	8	9	22	29	38
6	San Antonio FC Cotacachi	27	7	11	9	26	32	32

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Club 9 de Octubre	Atletico FC Guayaquil
San Antonio FC Cotacachi	3-0 W	3-0 W
Vinotinto Ecuador	0-1 L	0-1 L
Independiente Juniors	3-1 W	1-1 D
CD Cuenca Jrs	1-1 D	2-0 W
CD Vargas Torres	0-0 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Club 9 de Octubre (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Club 9 de Octubre

WDLDDDDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	2-0	3-0	9	4	W
17/09	Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
12/09	Independiente Juniors Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-1	3-1	5	6	W
04/09	Atletico FC Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-1	2-2	9	13	D
28/08	CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-1	1-1	5	9	D
20/08	San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	1	6	D
15/08	Independiente Juniors Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	–	2-2	–	–	D
06/08	El Nacional Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-1	4	7	L
30/07	CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
25/07	22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-0	1-0	9	3	W

Atletico FC Guayaquil

DWLDWLDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/09	CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	2-0	2-0	4	3	W
17/09	Independiente Juniors Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	1-1	0	8	D
10/09	San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-0	3-0	4	2	W
04/09	Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-0	2-2	4	13	D
27/08	Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
20/08	Cumbaya Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	3-0	3-0	1	3	W
15/08	Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
06/08	CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
30/07	LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
24/07	CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	3	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Club 9 de Octubre vs Atletico FC Guayaquil?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Club 9 de Octubre win (48%). Probabilities: Club 9 de Octubre 48%, draw 31%, Atletico FC Guayaquil 21%.

How many goals are expected in Club 9 de Octubre vs Atletico FC Guayaquil?

The model expects 1.89 goals (Club 9 de Octubre 1.2 · Atletico FC Guayaquil 0.69), with a 55% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Club 9 de Octubre vs Atletico FC Guayaquil?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.