Football · Peru Liga 1 · 26/10, 00:00

Prediction: Deportivo Garcilaso vs CD Los Chankas

Team pages: Deportivo Garcilaso · CD Los Chankas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.07Total

Deportivo Garcilaso2.14

CD Los Chankas0.93

1X2

64% 22% 14%

Deportivo Garcilaso Draw CD Los Chankas

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Garcilaso 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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CD Los Chankas 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WDLLLLLDDW

Head-to-head

Deportivo Garcilaso 2–2–1 CD Los Chankas (5 last)

CD Los Chankas0-1Deportivo Garcilaso
Deportivo Garcilaso3-0CD Los Chankas
CD Los Chankas2-2Deportivo Garcilaso
CD Los Chankas1-0Deportivo Garcilaso
Deportivo Garcilaso1-1CD Los Chankas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Garcilaso 1548 · CD Los Chankas 1441

	Deportivo Garcilaso	Draw	CD Los Chankas
Our model	64%	22%	14%
Market	64%	22%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 3.07 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportivo Garcilaso (rating 1548 vs 1441).
H2H favours Deportivo Garcilaso: 2-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Garcilaso	CD Los Chankas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.9	1.1 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.2	0.6 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.1	1.3 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.4	4.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.44

X4.20

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.98

2 (+1.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 23:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.44▲	Pinn 1.46
X	4.50 → 4.20▼	Pinn 4.32 ★
2	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 8.4% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:17 +7’	1.40	4.50	6.50
01:18 +1’	1.40	4.50	7.00▲
23:03 +15’	1.44▲	4.20▼	6.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:00 +985’	1.45	4.36	6.24
20:49 +46’	1.46▲	4.32▼	6.18▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Garcilaso 2–2–1 CD Los Chankas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/05/26 Peru Liga 1	CD Los Chankas	0-1 HT 0-0	Deportivo Garcilaso
19/07/25 Peru Liga 1	Deportivo Garcilaso	3-0 HT 1-0	CD Los Chankas
10/02/25 Peru Liga 1	CD Los Chankas	2-2 HT 1-1	Deportivo Garcilaso
29/09/24 Peru Liga 1	CD Los Chankas	1-0 HT 1-0	Deportivo Garcilaso
29/04/24 Peru Liga 1	Deportivo Garcilaso	1-1 HT 0-1	CD Los Chankas

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	29	18	8	3	49	20	62
2	Universitario de Deportes	29	15	8	6	49	34	53
3	FBC Melgar	29	14	8	7	51	33	50
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	29	14	6	9	41	29	48
5	Cienciano	29	14	5	10	49	40	47
6	CD Los Chankas	29	13	7	9	38	46	46
7	Cusco FC	29	14	3	12	42	42	45
8	Sporting Cristal	29	13	5	11	53	42	44
9	Alianza Atletico	29	12	7	10	44	40	43
10	Sport Huancayo	29	12	5	12	40	45	41
11	Juan Pablo II College	29	10	8	11	45	53	38
12	Sport Boys	29	10	8	11	30	31	34
13	Atletico Grau	29	9	6	14	27	34	33
14	Comerciantes Unidos	29	7	10	12	38	43	31
15	Deportivo Moquegua	29	7	7	15	25	43	28
16	FC Cajamarca	29	7	7	15	41	53	26
17	AD Tarma	29	6	8	15	30	44	25
18	UTC Cajamarca	29	4	8	17	32	52	10

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Garcilaso	CD Los Chankas
FBC Melgar	2-4 L	0-3 L
Sport Huancayo	0-1 L	1-1 D
Universitario de Deportes	4-0 W	0-3 L
Atletico Grau	4-2 W	0-0 D
Cienciano	0-0 D	1-1 D
AD Tarma	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Deportivo Garcilaso (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo Garcilaso

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	1-1	2-4	6	4	L
10/10	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-1	6	7	L
20/09	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	3-0	4-0	4	4	W
13/09	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
06/09	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	1-0	4-2	12	6	W
30/08	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
23/08	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	1-0	4-1	4	5	W
17/08	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	1	8	D
09/08	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
02/08	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	5	5	W

CD Los Chankas

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	1-1	2-1	5	7	W
08/10	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
30/09	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-1	0	6	D
12/09	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-2	1-2	2	6	L
06/09	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	0-2	0-5	7	4	L
29/08	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	2-3	3-4	4	5	L
24/08	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-3	0	2	L
15/08	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	0-2	0-3	7	1	L
07/08	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-1	2	8	D
31/07	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	3-2	3-2	5	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Garcilaso vs CD Los Chankas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Garcilaso win (64%). Probabilities: Deportivo Garcilaso 64%, draw 22%, CD Los Chankas 14%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Garcilaso vs CD Los Chankas?

The model expects 3.07 goals (Deportivo Garcilaso 2.14 · CD Los Chankas 0.93), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Garcilaso vs CD Los Chankas?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.