Football · Peru Liga 1 · 02/11, 21:30

Prediction: Sporting Cristal vs FC Cajamarca

Team pages: Sporting Cristal · FC Cajamarca

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.15Total

Sporting Cristal3.08

FC Cajamarca1.08

1X2

76% 15% 9%

Sporting Cristal Draw FC Cajamarca

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

3-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Sporting Cristal 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WLLWWWWWLW

FC Cajamarca 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLWLWLDLLL

Head-to-head

Sporting Cristal 0–1 FC Cajamarca (1 last)

FC Cajamarca3-1Sporting Cristal

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sporting Cristal 1568 · FC Cajamarca 1422

	Sporting Cristal	Draw	FC Cajamarca
Our model	76%	14%	9%
Market	76%	16%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 4.15 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sporting Cristal (rating 1568 vs 1422).
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sporting Cristal	FC Cajamarca
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.4	1.4 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.8	1 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/10/30%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 6.6	1.5 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.2	3.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.22

X5.75

211.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.77

2 (+1.75)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 00:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.22 → 1.22	Pinn 1.23
X	5.75 → 5.75	Pinn 6.28 ★
2	12.00 → 11.00▼	Bet365 11.00

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 8.3% Pinnacle margin 7.6%

Time*	1	X	2
23:55 +3’	1.22	5.75	12.00
15:00 +9’	1.25▲	5.50▼	11.00▼
00:11 +7’	1.22▼	5.75▲	11.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:42 +7’	1.22	6.06	8.85
22:35 +14’	1.23▲	6.33▲	9.44▲
05:19 +10’	1.21▼	6.65▲	10.66▲
06:21 +10’	1.25▲	6.09▼	9.22▼
20:07 +26’	1.23▼	6.28▲	9.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Sporting Cristal 0–0–1 FC Cajamarca

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
15/05/26 Peru Liga 1	FC Cajamarca	3-1 HT 0-1	Sporting Cristal

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	31	19	8	4	52	23	65
2	Universitario de Deportes	30	16	8	6	52	34	56
3	FBC Melgar	31	15	9	7	54	35	54
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	31	15	6	10	47	33	51
5	Cusco FC	31	16	3	12	46	43	51
6	Cienciano	31	15	5	11	53	43	50
7	Alianza Atletico	32	14	7	11	49	46	49
8	Sporting Cristal	31	14	5	12	57	47	47
9	CD Los Chankas	31	13	7	11	39	51	46
10	Sport Huancayo	31	13	5	13	44	48	44
11	Juan Pablo II College	32	11	8	13	47	57	41
12	Sport Boys	30	11	8	11	34	33	37
13	Comerciantes Unidos	31	8	11	12	42	45	35
14	Atletico Grau	31	9	7	15	28	38	34
15	AD Tarma	31	7	9	15	33	45	29
16	Deportivo Moquegua	31	7	7	17	25	46	28
17	FC Cajamarca	31	7	7	17	44	60	26
18	UTC Cajamarca	31	5	8	18	36	55	13

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sporting Cristal	FC Cajamarca
Cusco FC	1-3 L	1-2 L
Comerciantes Unidos	4-2 W	3-2 W
UTC Cajamarca	1-0 W	1-3 L
Atletico Grau	3-1 W	1-3 L
Deportivo Moquegua	2-1 W	0-1 L
CD Los Chankas	5-0 W	2-1 W
Sport Boys	0-1 L	2-4 L
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Sporting Cristal (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sporting Cristal

WLLWWWWWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/10	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	2-2	3-2	4	6	W
24/10	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-2	1-3	12	3	L
18/10	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	1-0	4-2	5	1	W
11/10	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-0	5	6	W
19/09	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	2-1	3-1	9	6	W
13/09	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	2-1	2-1	4	7	W
06/09	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	2-0	5-0	9	4	W
30/08	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-1	2	4	L
21/08	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-3	5	5	L
16/08	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	2-0	4-1	11	4	W

FC Cajamarca

LLWLWLDLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/10	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-3	3	3	L
25/10	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	1-2	2-4	3	2	L
18/10	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	4	0	L
10/10	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	3	8	D
19/09	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	1-2	1-2	2	2	L
12/09	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	2-0	2-1	2	6	W
04/09	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	2-3	2-5	4	2	L
28/08	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	2-0	3-2	3	4	W
21/08	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-3	4	3	L
16/08	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	1-2	2-3	6	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sporting Cristal vs FC Cajamarca?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sporting Cristal win (76%). Probabilities: Sporting Cristal 76%, draw 15%, FC Cajamarca 9%.

How many goals are expected in Sporting Cristal vs FC Cajamarca?

The model expects 4.15 goals (Sporting Cristal 3.08 · FC Cajamarca 1.08), with a 54% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sporting Cristal vs FC Cajamarca?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.