Football · Peru Liga 1 · 02/11, 17:00

Prediction: Sport Huancayo vs FBC Melgar

Team pages: Sport Huancayo · FBC Melgar

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.04Total

Sport Huancayo1.68

FBC Melgar1.36

1X2

44% 26% 30%

Sport Huancayo Draw FBC Melgar

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Sport Huancayo 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

LLWWWWWWWL

FBC Melgar 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDLWWDDWWD

Head-to-head

Sport Huancayo 1–1–4 FBC Melgar (6 last)

FBC Melgar4-1Sport Huancayo
FBC Melgar2-0Sport Huancayo
Sport Huancayo2-2FBC Melgar
Sport Huancayo2-4FBC Melgar
FBC Melgar4-1Sport Huancayo
FBC Melgar1-3Sport Huancayo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sport Huancayo 1536 · FBC Melgar 1565

	Sport Huancayo	Draw	FBC Melgar
Our model	44%	26%	30%
Market	44%	27%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.04 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FBC Melgar: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sport Huancayo	FBC Melgar
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.4	1.8 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 6.4	2.7 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.7	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.40

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 12:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.10▼	Pinn 2.11
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.79 ★
2	3.00 → 3.10▲	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 9.3% Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:19 +15’	2.20	3.40	3.00
12:48 +3’	2.10▼	3.40	3.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:42 +5’	2.09	3.64	2.95
01:55 +40’	2.08▼	3.94▲	2.97▲
03:07 +9’	2.11▲	3.79▼	3.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Sport Huancayo 1–1–4 FBC Melgar

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Peru Liga 1	FBC Melgar	4-1 HT 1-0	Sport Huancayo
27/10/25 Peru Liga 1	FBC Melgar	2-0 HT 1-0	Sport Huancayo
21/06/25 Peru Liga 1	Sport Huancayo	2-2 HT 0-1	FBC Melgar
27/10/24 Peru Liga 1	Sport Huancayo	2-4 HT 1-2	FBC Melgar
19/05/24 Peru Liga 1	FBC Melgar	4-1 HT 2-0	Sport Huancayo
27/08/23 Peru Liga 1	FBC Melgar	1-3 HT 0-0	Sport Huancayo

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	31	19	8	4	52	23	65
2	Universitario de Deportes	30	16	8	6	52	34	56
3	FBC Melgar	31	15	9	7	54	35	54
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	31	15	6	10	47	33	51
5	Cusco FC	31	16	3	12	46	43	51
6	Cienciano	31	15	5	11	53	43	50
7	Alianza Atletico	32	14	7	11	49	46	49
8	Sporting Cristal	31	14	5	12	57	47	47
9	CD Los Chankas	31	13	7	11	39	51	46
10	Sport Huancayo	31	13	5	13	44	48	44
11	Juan Pablo II College	32	11	8	13	47	57	41
12	Sport Boys	30	11	8	11	34	33	37
13	Comerciantes Unidos	31	8	11	12	42	45	35
14	Atletico Grau	31	9	7	15	28	38	34
15	AD Tarma	31	7	9	15	33	45	29
16	Deportivo Moquegua	31	7	7	17	25	46	28
17	FC Cajamarca	31	7	7	17	44	60	26
18	UTC Cajamarca	31	5	8	18	36	55	13

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sport Huancayo	FBC Melgar
Cusco FC	2-1 W	1-0 W
Deportivo Garcilaso	1-0 W	4-2 W
UTC Cajamarca	3-2 W	2-1 W
Comerciantes Unidos	1-0 W	1-1 D
Sport Boys	2-1 W	1-1 D
AD Tarma	3-1 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	6 W 0 D 0 L	4 W 2 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sport Huancayo

LLWWWWWWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-2	6	4	L
24/10	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	4-0	4-1	6	2	W
16/10	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-1	2-1	9	7	W
10/10	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-0	5	7	W
20/09	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	2-1	3-2	7	6	W
12/09	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	8	8	W
05/09	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-1	9	8	W
30/08	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	3-0	3-1	0	10	W
22/08	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-2	10	5	L
16/08	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	0-2	1-4	4	4	L

FBC Melgar

WDLWWDDWWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-1	6	8	D
23/10	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-1	2	6	W
18/10	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	1-1	4-2	6	4	W
11/10	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-2	3	4	D
20/09	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	12	4	D
12/09	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
07/09	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	1-0	3-0	8	2	W
01/09	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
23/08	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
15/08	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	2-0	3-0	3	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sport Huancayo vs FBC Melgar?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sport Huancayo win (44%). Probabilities: Sport Huancayo 44%, draw 26%, FBC Melgar 30%.

How many goals are expected in Sport Huancayo vs FBC Melgar?

The model expects 3.04 goals (Sport Huancayo 1.68 · FBC Melgar 1.36), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Sport Huancayo vs FBC Melgar?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.