Football · Peru Liga 1 · 01/11, 21:30
Prediction: Atletico Grau vs Universitario de Deportes
Team pages: Atletico Grau · Universitario de Deportes
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.71Total
Atletico Grau0.81
Universitario de Deportes1.9
1X2
Atletico Grau
Draw
Universitario de Deportes
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
0-2 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Atletico Grau
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Universitario de Deportes
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Atletico Grau
1–2–3
Universitario de Deportes
(6 last)
- Universitario de Deportes1-1Atletico Grau
- Universitario de Deportes0-1Atletico Grau
- Universitario de Deportes3-1Atletico Grau
- Atletico Grau0-2Universitario de Deportes
- Atletico Grau1-1Universitario de Deportes
- Universitario de Deportes1-0Atletico Grau
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Atletico Grau 1499 · Universitario de Deportes 1563
| Atletico Grau | Draw | Universitario de Deportes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 14% | 24% | 62% |
| Market | 14% | 24% | 62% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.71 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Universitario de Deportes (rating 1499 vs 1563).
- H2H favours Universitario de Deportes: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Atletico Grau | Universitario de Deportes | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.6 | 2.4 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.6 | 0.8 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/70/20% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 3.8 | 3.3 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.4 | 4.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Grau 1–2–3 Universitario de Deportes
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06/26 Peru Copa de la Liga | Universitario de Deportes | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Atletico Grau |
| 16/05/26 Peru Liga 1 | Universitario de Deportes | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Atletico Grau |
| 01/08/25 Peru Liga 1 | Universitario de Deportes | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Atletico Grau |
| 26/06/25 Peru Liga 1 | Atletico Grau | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Universitario de Deportes |
| 21/07/24 Peru Liga 1 | Atletico Grau | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Universitario de Deportes |
| 04/02/24 Peru Liga 1 | Universitario de Deportes | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Atletico Grau |
Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 31 | 19 | 8 | 4 | 52 | 23 | 65 |
| 2 | Universitario de Deportes | 30 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 52 | 34 | 56 |
| 3 | FBC Melgar | 31 | 15 | 9 | 7 | 54 | 35 | 54 |
| 4 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 31 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 47 | 33 | 51 |
| 5 | Cusco FC | 31 | 16 | 3 | 12 | 46 | 43 | 51 |
| 6 | Cienciano | 31 | 15 | 5 | 11 | 53 | 43 | 50 |
| 7 | Alianza Atletico | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 49 | 46 | 49 |
| 8 | Sporting Cristal | 31 | 14 | 5 | 12 | 57 | 47 | 47 |
| 9 | CD Los Chankas | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 39 | 51 | 46 |
| 10 | Sport Huancayo | 31 | 13 | 5 | 13 | 44 | 48 | 44 |
| 11 | Juan Pablo II College | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 47 | 57 | 41 |
| 12 | Sport Boys | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 34 | 33 | 37 |
| 13 | Comerciantes Unidos | 31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 42 | 45 | 35 |
| 14 | Atletico Grau | 31 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 28 | 38 | 34 |
| 15 | AD Tarma | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 33 | 45 | 29 |
| 16 | Deportivo Moquegua | 31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 25 | 46 | 28 |
| 17 | FC Cajamarca | 31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 44 | 60 | 26 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 31 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 55 | 13 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Atletico Grau | Universitario de Deportes |
|---|---|---|
| Alianza Lima | 1-3 L | 2-1 W |
| CD Los Chankas | 0-0 D | 3-0 W |
| Sporting Cristal | 1-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Alianza Atletico | 3-1 W | 4-1 W |
| Deportivo Garcilaso | 2-4 L | 0-4 L |
| FBC Melgar | 1-0 W | 2-2 D |
| FC Cajamarca | 3-1 W | 3-2 W |
| Comerciantes Unidos | 1-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 3 L | 4 W 3 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Atletico Grau
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10 | Cienciano Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 23/10 | AD Tarma Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 10 | D |
| 18/10 | Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 08/10 | CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 19/09 | Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1 |
1-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 13/09 | Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 06/09 | Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 2-4 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 01/09 | FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 21/08 | FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 14/08 | Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
Universitario de Deportes
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 18/10 | Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1 |
3-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 11/10 | FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 20/09 | Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1 |
0-3 | 0-4 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 13/09 | Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 06/09 | Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 29/08 | UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
1-2 | 4-2 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 24/08 | CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 3-0 | 0 | 2 | W |
| 16/08 | FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
2-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 08/08 | Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Atletico Grau vs Universitario de Deportes?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Universitario de Deportes win (62%). Probabilities: Atletico Grau 14%, draw 24%, Universitario de Deportes 62%.
How many goals are expected in Atletico Grau vs Universitario de Deportes?
The model expects 2.71 goals (Atletico Grau 0.81 · Universitario de Deportes 1.9), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Atletico Grau vs Universitario de Deportes?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.