Football · Peru Liga 1 · 02/11, 19:15

Prediction: UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso

Team pages: UTC Cajamarca · Deportivo Garcilaso

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.87Total

UTC Cajamarca1.35

Deportivo Garcilaso1.52

1X2

32% 27% 40%

UTC Cajamarca Draw Deportivo Garcilaso

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

UTC Cajamarca 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLLLW

Deportivo Garcilaso 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

DWWWLWLLWL

Head-to-head

UTC Cajamarca 2–2–2 Deportivo Garcilaso (6 last)

Deportivo Garcilaso2-0UTC Cajamarca
Deportivo Garcilaso0-0UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca2-1Deportivo Garcilaso
Deportivo Garcilaso1-0UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca1-0Deportivo Garcilaso
UTC Cajamarca0-0Deportivo Garcilaso

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UTC Cajamarca 1412 · Deportivo Garcilaso 1528

	UTC Cajamarca	Draw	Deportivo Garcilaso
Our model	33%	27%	40%
Market	32%	28%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.87 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportivo Garcilaso (rating 1412 vs 1528).
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UTC Cajamarca	Deportivo Garcilaso
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.1	2.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.1	2.7 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.8	4.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.40

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 00:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.90▲	Pinn 2.94
X	3.30 → 3.40▲	Pinn 3.65 ★
2	2.45 → 2.35▼	Bet365 2.35

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 6.4% Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
03:08 +16’	2.63	3.30	2.45
14:42 +16’	2.70▲	3.40▲	2.50▲
17:53 +3’	2.80▲	3.40	2.45▼
22:46 +2’	3.00▲	3.40	2.30▼
00:15 +2’	2.90▼	3.40	2.35▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:53 +10’	2.72	3.33	2.48
05:23 +4’	2.78▲	3.38▲	2.41▼
07:02 +18’	2.85▲	3.38	2.35▼
00:10 +7’	2.69▼	3.44▲	2.45▲
08:02 +17’	2.72▲	3.45▲	2.42▼
12:48 +1’	2.94▲	3.65▲	2.19▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · UTC Cajamarca 2–2–2 Deportivo Garcilaso

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Peru Liga 1	Deportivo Garcilaso	2-0 HT 0-0	UTC Cajamarca
26/09/25 Peru Liga 1	Deportivo Garcilaso	0-0 HT 0-0	UTC Cajamarca
03/05/25 Peru Liga 1	UTC Cajamarca	2-1 HT 1-1	Deportivo Garcilaso
13/07/24 Peru Liga 1	Deportivo Garcilaso	1-0 HT 0-0	UTC Cajamarca
26/01/24 Peru Liga 1	UTC Cajamarca	1-0 HT 1-0	Deportivo Garcilaso
03/09/23 Peru Liga 1	UTC Cajamarca	0-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Garcilaso

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	31	19	8	4	52	23	65
2	Universitario de Deportes	30	16	8	6	52	34	56
3	FBC Melgar	31	15	9	7	54	35	54
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	31	15	6	10	47	33	51
5	Cusco FC	31	16	3	12	46	43	51
6	Cienciano	31	15	5	11	53	43	50
7	Alianza Atletico	32	14	7	11	49	46	49
8	Sporting Cristal	31	14	5	12	57	47	47
9	CD Los Chankas	31	13	7	11	39	51	46
10	Sport Huancayo	31	13	5	13	44	48	44
11	Juan Pablo II College	32	11	8	13	47	57	41
12	Sport Boys	30	11	8	11	34	33	37
13	Comerciantes Unidos	31	8	11	12	42	45	35
14	Atletico Grau	31	9	7	15	28	38	34
15	AD Tarma	31	7	9	15	33	45	29
16	Deportivo Moquegua	31	7	7	17	25	46	28
17	FC Cajamarca	31	7	7	17	44	60	26
18	UTC Cajamarca	31	5	8	18	36	55	13

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UTC Cajamarca	Deportivo Garcilaso
FBC Melgar	1-2 L	2-4 L
Cienciano	0-1 L	0-0 D
Sport Huancayo	2-3 L	0-1 L
Alianza Atletico	2-3 L	2-3 L
Universitario de Deportes	2-4 L	4-0 W
Alianza Lima	0-1 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 6 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Deportivo Garcilaso (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UTC Cajamarca

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/10	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-0	3-1	4	3	W
23/10	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-2	4	6	L
19/10	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
11/10	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-1	5	6	L
20/09	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	1-2	2-3	1	6	L
11/09	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-2	3	11	L
04/09	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	1-2	2-3	2	6	L
29/08	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	2-1	2-4	3	6	L
22/08	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-3	7	2	L
16/08	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-1	1	2	L

Deportivo Garcilaso

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/10	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	0-3	2-3	5	2	L
26/10	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	1-0	4-1	5	6	W
18/10	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	1-1	2-4	6	4	L
10/10	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-1	6	7	L
20/09	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	3-0	4-0	4	4	W
13/09	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
06/09	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	1-0	4-2	12	6	W
30/08	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
23/08	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	1-0	4-1	4	5	W
17/08	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	1	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Deportivo Garcilaso win (40%). Probabilities: UTC Cajamarca 32%, draw 27%, Deportivo Garcilaso 40%.

How many goals are expected in UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

The model expects 2.87 goals (UTC Cajamarca 1.35 · Deportivo Garcilaso 1.52), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.