Football · Peru Liga 2 · 18/10, 20:00

Prediction: Ayacucho FC vs Union Comercio

Team pages: Ayacucho FC · Union Comercio

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.44Total

Ayacucho FC0.96

Union Comercio1.48

1X2

24% 28% 49%

Ayacucho FC Draw Union Comercio

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Ayacucho FC 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LWWLWLLWLL

Union Comercio 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWWDDWLWLW

Head-to-head

Ayacucho FC 2–1–3 Union Comercio (6 last)

Union Comercio5-0Ayacucho FC
Ayacucho FC2-1Union Comercio
Union Comercio3-0Ayacucho FC
Ayacucho FC1-1Union Comercio
Union Comercio0-1Ayacucho FC
Union Comercio3-1Ayacucho FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ayacucho FC 1467 · Union Comercio 1535

	Ayacucho FC	Draw	Union Comercio
Our model	23%	29%	48%
Market	24%	27%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 2.44 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Union Comercio (rating 1467 vs 1535).
H2H favours Union Comercio: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ayacucho FC	Union Comercio
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.1	1.6 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.9	1.5 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.6	4.6 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

13.75

X3.30

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.98

2 (-0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 19:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 3.75▲	Bet365 3.75
X	3.10 → 3.30▲	Pinn 3.59 ★
2	2.30 → 1.83▼	Pinn 1.91

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
17:52 +6’	2.80	3.10	2.30
13:49 +10’	3.40▲	3.20▲	2.00▼
17:28 +14’	3.90▲	3.25▲	1.83▼
19:38 +4’	3.75▼	3.30▲	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:11 +1’	2.62	2.92	2.50
08:29 +44’	2.81▲	3.03▲	2.28▼
12:58 +62’	3.22▲	3.29▲	1.95▼
14:14 +105’	3.18▼	3.24▼	1.99▲
17:18 +23’	3.64▲	3.65▲	1.74▼
18:03 +48’	3.70▲	3.71▲	1.75▲
19:37 +5’	3.22▼	3.59▼	1.91▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ayacucho FC 2–1–3 Union Comercio

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/10/26 Peru Liga 2	Union Comercio	5-0 HT 2-0	Ayacucho FC
13/11/22 Peru Play-Offs	Ayacucho FC	2-1 HT 1-1	Union Comercio
06/11/22 Peru Play-Offs	Union Comercio	3-0 HT 0-0	Ayacucho FC
19/10/19 Peru Liga 1	Ayacucho FC	1-1 HT 0-0	Union Comercio
04/05/19 Peru Liga 1	Union Comercio	0-1 HT 0-0	Ayacucho FC
04/10/18 Peru Liga 1	Union Comercio	3-1 HT 1-1	Ayacucho FC

Standings · Peru Liga 2 · Liga 2 2026, Main Round, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Comercio	3	2	1	8	4	8
2	Union Minas	4	2	2	8	3	7
3	Pirata FC	4	2	2	3	6	6
4	Ayacucho FC	3	1	2	1	7	3

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ayacucho FC	Union Comercio
Pirata FC	0-2 L	2-0 W
Union Minas	1-0 W	1-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ayacucho FC

LWWLWLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/10	Union Comercio Peru Liga 2	0-2	0-5	4	3	L
06/10	Pirata FC Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-2	6	7	L
26/09	Union Minas Peru Liga 2	1-0	1-0	7	3	W
12/09	Sport Huancayo II Peru Liga 2	0-1	0-2	8	4	L
04/09	Comerciantes FC Peru Liga 2	0-1	1-5	3	6	L
22/08	Deportivo Binacional Peru Liga 2	2-1	7-1	–	–	W
15/08	Union Minas Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-3	2	6	L
09/08	CD Estudiantil CNI Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
26/07	Santos FC Peru Liga 2	1-0	2-0	7	8	W
18/07	Alianza Universidad Peru Liga 2	1-2	2-3	2	1	L

Union Comercio

DWWDDWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/10	Ayacucho FC Peru Liga 2	2-0	5-0	4	3	W
06/10	Union Minas Peru Liga 2	1-1	1-4	1	13	L
27/09	Pirata FC Peru Liga 2	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
13/09	Club Ada Jaen Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
06/09	CD Universidad San Martin Peru Liga 2	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
30/08	Deportivo Llacuabamba Peru Liga 2	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
23/08	Carlos Manucci Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
17/08	Pirata FC Peru Liga 2	1-0	2-1	3	6	W
07/08	Academia Deportiva Cantolao Peru Liga 2	2-0	4-0	–	–	W
25/07	Cesar Vallejo Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-0	5	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ayacucho FC vs Union Comercio?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Union Comercio win (49%). Probabilities: Ayacucho FC 24%, draw 28%, Union Comercio 49%.

How many goals are expected in Ayacucho FC vs Union Comercio?

The model expects 2.44 goals (Ayacucho FC 0.96 · Union Comercio 1.48), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Ayacucho FC vs Union Comercio?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.