Football · Peru Liga 2 · 25/10, 16:45

Prediction: CD Universidad San Martin vs Carlos Manucci

Team pages: CD Universidad San Martin · Carlos Manucci

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.64Total

CD Universidad San Martin1.45

Carlos Manucci1.19

1X2

42% 28% 30%

CD Universidad San Martin Draw Carlos Manucci

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Universidad San Martin 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWLDLWWW

Carlos Manucci 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWLDWWWDWD

Head-to-head

CD Universidad San Martin 1–5 Carlos Manucci (6 last)

Carlos Manucci7-0CD Universidad San Martin
CD Universidad San Martin2-0Carlos Manucci
Carlos Manucci2-1CD Universidad San Martin
Carlos Manucci3-2CD Universidad San Martin
CD Universidad San Martin1-3Carlos Manucci
CD Universidad San Martin0-2Carlos Manucci

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Universidad San Martin 1525 · Carlos Manucci 1552

	CD Universidad San Martin	Draw	Carlos Manucci
Our model	42%	28%	30%
Market	42%	28%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Carlos Manucci: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Universidad San Martin	Carlos Manucci
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.6	1.9 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.7	1 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.5	2.6 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0	4.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.25

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 07:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.15▲	Pinn 2.21 ★
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.10 → 3.00▼	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.6% Pinnacle margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
21:46 +15’	2.10	3.25	3.10
06:59 +11’	2.15▲	3.25	3.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
05:11 +4’	2.21	3.05	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Universidad San Martin 1–0–5 Carlos Manucci

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/09/26 Peru Liga 2	Carlos Manucci	7-0 HT 3-0	CD Universidad San Martin
25/07/26 Peru Liga 2	CD Universidad San Martin	2-0 HT 1-0	Carlos Manucci
05/04/26 Peru Liga 2	Carlos Manucci	2-1 HT 2-0	CD Universidad San Martin
13/08/22 Peru Liga 1	Carlos Manucci	3-2 HT 1-2	CD Universidad San Martin
22/03/22 Peru Liga 1	CD Universidad San Martin	1-3 HT 0-2	Carlos Manucci
17/07/21 Peru Liga 1	CD Universidad San Martin	0-2 HT 0-1	Carlos Manucci

Standings · Peru Liga 2 · Liga 2 2026, Main Round, Group 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Carlos Manucci	4	2	2	0	11	2	10
2	CD Universidad San Martin	4	3	0	1	6	9	9
3	Bentin Tacna Heroica	4	0	2	2	3	6	3
4	Alianza Universidad	4	0	2	2	5	8	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Universidad San Martin	Carlos Manucci
Bentin Tacna Heroica	2-1 W	0-0 D
Alianza Universidad	2-1 W	1-1 D
Academia Deportiva Cantolao	2-2 D	2-0 W
Union Comercio	0-1 L	0-0 D
Cesar Vallejo	2-0 W	0-1 L
Club Ada Jaen	3-1 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: CD Universidad San Martin (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Universidad San Martin

WLWWLDLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Bentin Tacna Heroica Peru Liga 2	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
11/10	Bentin Tacna Heroica Peru Liga 2	1-0	2-0	5	1	W
06/10	Alianza Universidad Peru Liga 2	2-0	2-1	4	8	W
26/09	Carlos Manucci Peru Liga 2	0-3	0-7	2	2	L
13/09	Academia Deportiva Cantolao Peru Liga 2	1-1	2-2	3	3	D
06/09	Union Comercio Peru Liga 2	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
29/08	Cesar Vallejo Peru Liga 2	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
16/08	Club Ada Jaen Peru Liga 2	2-0	3-1	1	6	W
01/08	Deportivo Llacuabamba Peru Liga 2	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
25/07	Carlos Manucci Peru Liga 2	1-0	2-0	3	2	W

Carlos Manucci

LWLDWWWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Alianza Universidad Peru Liga 2	1-0	1-1	5	6	D
13/10	Alianza Universidad Peru Liga 2	2-0	3-1	9	8	W
08/10	Bentin Tacna Heroica Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-0	0	5	D
26/09	CD Universidad San Martin Peru Liga 2	3-0	7-0	5	2	W
07/09	Pirata FC Peru Liga 2	2-1	4-2	5	3	W
29/08	Academia Deportiva Cantolao Peru Liga 2	1-0	2-0	4	6	W
23/08	Union Comercio Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
16/08	Cesar Vallejo Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-1	4	7	L
02/08	Club Ada Jaen Peru Liga 2	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
25/07	CD Universidad San Martin Peru Liga 2	0-1	0-2	3	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Universidad San Martin vs Carlos Manucci?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Universidad San Martin win (42%). Probabilities: CD Universidad San Martin 42%, draw 28%, Carlos Manucci 30%.

How many goals are expected in CD Universidad San Martin vs Carlos Manucci?

The model expects 2.64 goals (CD Universidad San Martin 1.45 · Carlos Manucci 1.19), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Universidad San Martin vs Carlos Manucci?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.