Football · Peru Liga 2 · 17/10, 22:15

Prediction: Santos FC vs Academia Deportiva Cantolao

Team pages: Santos FC · Academia Deportiva Cantolao

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.13Total

Santos FC1.93

Academia Deportiva Cantolao1.2

1X2

53% 25% 22%

Santos FC Draw Academia Deportiva Cantolao

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Santos FC 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Academia Deportiva Cantolao 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Santos FC 5–1 Academia Deportiva Cantolao (6 last)

Academia Deportiva Cantolao0-3Santos FC
Santos FC2-0Academia Deportiva Cantolao
Academia Deportiva Cantolao1-2Santos FC
Academia Deportiva Cantolao1-2Santos FC
Santos FC2-0Academia Deportiva Cantolao
Academia Deportiva Cantolao2-1Santos FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Santos FC 1518 · Academia Deportiva Cantolao 1440

	Santos FC	Draw	Academia Deportiva Cantolao
Our model	54%	24%	22%
Market	53%	26%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.13 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Santos FC (rating 1518 vs 1440).
H2H favours Santos FC: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Santos FC	Academia Deportiva Cantolao
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.4	0.9 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.4 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 5.6	1.4 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.3	5 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.40

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.70▼	Bet365 1.70
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.60 ★
2	3.50 → 4.20▲	Pinn 4.32

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 12.8%

Time*	1	X	2
16:38 +10’	1.85	3.40	3.50
15:06 +8’	1.70▼	3.40	4.20▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:30 +104’	1.62	3.60	4.32

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Santos FC 5–0–1 Academia Deportiva Cantolao

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/10/26 Peru Liga 2	Academia Deportiva Cantolao	0-3 HT 0-1	Santos FC
06/07/25 Peru Liga 2	Santos FC	2-0 HT 0-0	Academia Deportiva Cantolao
17/05/25 Peru Liga 2	Academia Deportiva Cantolao	1-2 HT 1-0	Santos FC
04/10/24 Peru Liga 2	Academia Deportiva Cantolao	1-2 HT 0-0	Santos FC
11/06/24 Peru Liga 2	Santos FC	2-0 HT 2-0	Academia Deportiva Cantolao
15/04/24 Peru Liga 2	Academia Deportiva Cantolao	2-1 HT 0-1	Santos FC

Standings · Peru Liga 2 · Liga 2 2026, Relegation Round, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Santos FC	2	2	0	0	7	0	6
2	Academia Deportiva Cantolao	2	0	1	1	2	5	1
3	Deportivo Binacional	2	0	1	1	2	6	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Santos FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Deportivo Binacional Peru Liga 2	3-0	4-0	–	–	W
07/10	Academia Deportiva Cantolao Peru Liga 2	1-0	3-0	7	3	W
12/09	Union Minas Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-2	4	4	L
05/09	CD Estudiantil CNI Peru Liga 2	2-1	4-1	–	–	W
30/08	Bentin Tacna Heroica Peru Liga 2	1-1	1-3	11	7	L
17/08	Alianza Universidad Peru Liga 2	1-1	3-3	3	5	D
08/08	Sport Huancayo II Peru Liga 2	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
01/08	Comerciantes FC Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
26/07	Ayacucho FC Peru Liga 2	0-1	0-2	6	8	L
19/07	Deportivo Binacional Peru Liga 2	1-0	3-1	3	2	W

Academia Deportiva Cantolao

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/10	Santos FC Peru Liga 2	0-1	0-3	2	3	L
25/09	Deportivo Binacional Peru Liga 2	0-1	2-2	–	–	D
13/09	CD Universidad San Martin Peru Liga 2	1-1	2-2	2	3	D
05/09	Deportivo Llacuabamba Peru Liga 2	2-1	3-2	5	5	W
29/08	Carlos Manucci Peru Liga 2	0-1	0-2	7	6	L
23/08	Pirata FC Peru Liga 2	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
07/08	Union Comercio Peru Liga 2	0-2	0-4	–	–	L
01/08	Cesar Vallejo Peru Liga 2	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
19/07	Club Ada Jaen Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
31/05	CD Universidad San Martin Peru Liga 2	0-2	0-4	1	9	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Santos FC vs Academia Deportiva Cantolao?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Santos FC win (53%). Probabilities: Santos FC 53%, draw 25%, Academia Deportiva Cantolao 22%.

How many goals are expected in Santos FC vs Academia Deportiva Cantolao?

The model expects 3.13 goals (Santos FC 1.93 · Academia Deportiva Cantolao 1.2), with a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Santos FC vs Academia Deportiva Cantolao?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.