Football · Uruguay Clausura · 20/09, 21:30
Prediction: Nacional De Football vs Defensor Sporting
Team pages: Nacional De Football · Defensor Sporting
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.27Total
Nacional De Football1.55
Defensor Sporting0.72
1X2
Nacional De Football
Draw
Defensor Sporting
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
1-0 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Nacional De Football
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Defensor Sporting
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Nacional De Football
1–4–1
Defensor Sporting
(6 last)
- Defensor Sporting2-1Nacional De Football
- Defensor Sporting1-1Nacional De Football
- Nacional De Football2-1Defensor Sporting
- Nacional De Football2-2Defensor Sporting
- Nacional De Football1-1Defensor Sporting
- Defensor Sporting3-3Nacional De Football
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nacional De Football (rating 1539 vs 1470).
- Cards-heavy: 11 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Nacional De Football | Defensor Sporting | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 0.9 | 0.9 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.2 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/70/10% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 6 | 2 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.6 / 0.2 | 5.4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nacional De Football 1–4–1 Defensor Sporting
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 Uruguay Apertura | Defensor Sporting | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Nacional De Football |
| 09/11/25 Uruguay Clausura | Defensor Sporting | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Nacional De Football |
| 18/05/25 Uruguay Apertura | Nacional De Football | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Defensor Sporting |
| 07/12/24 Uruguay Cup | Nacional De Football | 2-2 HT 0-0 | Defensor Sporting |
| 22/09/24 Uruguay Clausura | Nacional De Football | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Defensor Sporting |
| 10/03/24 Uruguay Apertura | Defensor Sporting | 3-3 HT 1-1 | Nacional De Football |
Standings · Uruguay Clausura · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montevideo Wanderers | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 15 |
| 2 | Nacional De Football | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 12 |
| 4 | Torque | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
| 5 | Juventud De Las Piedras | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 8 |
| 6 | Albion FC | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
| 7 | Club Atletico Progreso | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 6 |
| 8 | Danubio | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 4 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Nacional De Football | Defensor Sporting |
|---|---|---|
| Montevideo Wanderers | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Penarol | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Club Atletico Progreso | 1-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 0 L | 1 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Nacional De Football (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nacional De Football
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 06/09 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Clausura |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 30/08 | Penarol Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 23/08 | Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 15/08 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 09/08 | Boston River Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-2 | 11 | 4 | L |
| 09/11 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 7 | D |
| 01/11 | Cerro Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 7 | D |
| 26/10 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 18/10 | Miramar Misiones Uruguay Clausura |
3-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
Defensor Sporting
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 06/09 | Central Espanol Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 29/08 | Torque Uruguay Clausura |
1-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 16/08 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 0-4 | 8 | 10 | L |
| 09/08 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 8 | L |
| 09/11 | Nacional De Football Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 7 | D |
| 02/11 | Penarol Uruguay Clausura |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 25/10 | Torque Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 19/10 | Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Clausura |
1-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nacional De Football vs Defensor Sporting?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Nacional De Football win (56%). Probabilities: Nacional De Football 56%, draw 28%, Defensor Sporting 16%.
How many goals are expected in Nacional De Football vs Defensor Sporting?
The model expects 2.27 goals (Nacional De Football 1.55 · Defensor Sporting 0.72), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Nacional De Football vs Defensor Sporting?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.