Football · Uruguay Clausura · 26/09, 16:00
Prediction: Club Atletico Progreso vs Racing Club de Montevideo
Team pages: Club Atletico Progreso · Racing Club de Montevideo
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.18Total
Club Atletico Progreso1.05
Racing Club de Montevideo1.13
1X2
Club Atletico Progreso
Draw
Racing Club de Montevideo
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 63%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Club Atletico Progreso
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Racing Club de Montevideo
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Club Atletico Progreso
1–2–3
Racing Club de Montevideo
(6 last)
- Racing Club de Montevideo1-1Club Atletico Progreso
- Racing Club de Montevideo0-0Club Atletico Progreso
- Racing Club de Montevideo3-0Club Atletico Progreso
- Club Atletico Progreso0-1Racing Club de Montevideo
- Racing Club de Montevideo1-0Club Atletico Progreso
- Club Atletico Progreso3-2Racing Club de Montevideo
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Racing Club de Montevideo (rating 1440 vs 1506).
- H2H favours Racing Club de Montevideo: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Club Atletico Progreso | Racing Club de Montevideo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 1.7 | 1.3 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 3.7 | 2 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.1 | 5.5 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Club Atletico Progreso 1–2–3 Racing Club de Montevideo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/03/26 Uruguay Apertura | Racing Club de Montevideo | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Club Atletico Progreso |
| 29/09/25 Uruguay Clausura | Racing Club de Montevideo | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Club Atletico Progreso |
| 22/06/25 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Racing Club de Montevideo | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Club Atletico Progreso |
| 30/03/25 Uruguay Apertura | Club Atletico Progreso | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Racing Club de Montevideo |
| 21/09/24 Uruguay Clausura | Racing Club de Montevideo | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Club Atletico Progreso |
| 07/07/24 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Club Atletico Progreso | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Racing Club de Montevideo |
Standings · Uruguay Clausura · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montevideo Wanderers | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 15 |
| 2 | Nacional De Football | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 12 |
| 4 | Torque | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
| 5 | Juventud De Las Piedras | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 8 |
| 6 | Albion FC | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
| 7 | Club Atletico Progreso | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 6 |
| 8 | Danubio | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 4 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Club Atletico Progreso | Racing Club de Montevideo |
|---|---|---|
| Boston River | 2-1 W | 3-2 W |
| Cerro | 1-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Albion FC | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Danubio | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Nacional De Football | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| Deportivo Maldonado | 0-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Liverpool Montevideo | 1-3 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 4 L | 3 W 3 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Racing Club de Montevideo (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Club Atletico Progreso
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Boston River Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 13/09 | Cerro Uruguay Clausura |
0-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 07/09 | Albion FC Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Danubio Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 23/08 | Nacional De Football Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 16/08 | Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 08/08 | Central Espanol Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 09/11 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 01/11 | Torque Uruguay Clausura |
0-3 | 0-5 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 26/10 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
Racing Club de Montevideo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 12/09 | Boston River Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 06/09 | Cerro Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 31/08 | Albion FC Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 23/08 | Danubio Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 15/08 | Nacional De Football Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 11/08 | Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Clausura |
2-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 07/11 | Miramar Misiones Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 02/11 | Danubio Uruguay Clausura |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 25/10 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 8 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Club Atletico Progreso vs Racing Club de Montevideo?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Racing Club de Montevideo win (36%). Probabilities: Club Atletico Progreso 32%, draw 32%, Racing Club de Montevideo 36%.
How many goals are expected in Club Atletico Progreso vs Racing Club de Montevideo?
The model expects 2.18 goals (Club Atletico Progreso 1.05 · Racing Club de Montevideo 1.13), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Club Atletico Progreso vs Racing Club de Montevideo?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.