Football · Uruguay Clausura · 26/09, 23:30
Prediction: Penarol vs Boston River
Team pages: Penarol · Boston River
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.65Total
Penarol1.88
Boston River0.77
1X2
Penarol
Draw
Boston River
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
2-0 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Penarol
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Boston River
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Penarol
3–2–1
Boston River
(6 last)
- Penarol3-0Boston River
- Boston River0-2Penarol
- Penarol2-2Boston River
- Boston River2-1Penarol
- Penarol1-1Boston River
- Penarol2-0Boston River
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Penarol (rating 1612 vs 1501).
- H2H favours Penarol: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Penarol | Boston River | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 0.7 | 1.5 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.4 | 0.8 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5.4 | 1.7 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0.1 | 4.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Penarol 3–2–1 Boston River
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07/26 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Penarol | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Boston River |
| 26/03/26 Uruguay Apertura | Boston River | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Penarol |
| 24/01/26 Uruguay Copa de la Liga | Penarol | 2-2 HT 2-2 | Boston River |
| 16/08/25 Uruguay Clausura | Boston River | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Penarol |
| 15/02/25 Uruguay Apertura | Penarol | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Boston River |
| 20/10/24 Uruguay Clausura | Penarol | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Boston River |
Standings · Uruguay Clausura · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 16 |
| 2 | Cerro Largo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 11 |
| 3 | Racing Club de Montevideo | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 9 |
| 5 | Central Espanol | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | Cerro | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 9 |
| 7 | Defensor Sporting | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 6 |
| 8 | Boston River | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 5 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Penarol | Boston River |
|---|---|---|
| Cerro | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Albion FC | 3-1 W | 3-2 W |
| Danubio | 4-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Nacional De Football | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| Montevideo Wanderers | 3-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 1 L | 2 W 3 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Penarol (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Penarol
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Cerro Uruguay Clausura |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 14/09 | Albion FC Uruguay Clausura |
2-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 05/09 | Danubio Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 30/08 | Nacional De Football Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 22/08 | Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 16/08 | Central Espanol Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 09/11 | Torque Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 02/11 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Clausura |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 25/10 | Cerro Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 9 | L |
| 19/10 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
Boston River
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 12/09 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 2-3 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 07/09 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 29/08 | Cerro Uruguay Clausura |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 21/08 | Albion FC Uruguay Clausura |
2-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 15/08 | Danubio Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 09/08 | Nacional De Football Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 09/11 | Cerro Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 01/11 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 27/10 | Miramar Misiones Uruguay Clausura |
4-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Penarol vs Boston River?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Penarol win (63%). Probabilities: Penarol 63%, draw 24%, Boston River 14%.
How many goals are expected in Penarol vs Boston River?
The model expects 2.65 goals (Penarol 1.88 · Boston River 0.77), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Penarol vs Boston River?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.