Football · Uruguay Clausura · 19/09, 17:00
Prediction: Boston River vs Club Atletico Progreso
Team pages: Boston River · Club Atletico Progreso
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.38Total
Boston River1.43
Club Atletico Progreso0.94
1X2
Boston River
Draw
Club Atletico Progreso
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Boston River
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Club Atletico Progreso
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Boston River
3–1–2
Club Atletico Progreso
(6 last)
- Club Atletico Progreso0-1Boston River
- Boston River1-2Club Atletico Progreso
- Boston River2-1Club Atletico Progreso
- Club Atletico Progreso2-0Boston River
- Club Atletico Progreso2-2Boston River
- Boston River1-0Club Atletico Progreso
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Boston River 1527 · Club Atletico Progreso 1412
| Boston River | Draw | Club Atletico Progreso | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 29% | 24% |
| Market | 48% | 28% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.38 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Boston River (rating 1527 vs 1412).
- H2H favours Boston River: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Boston River | Club Atletico Progreso | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1 | 0.7 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.3 | 0.4 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.6 | 1.9 / 3.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0.1 | 4.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Boston River 3–1–2 Club Atletico Progreso
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/26 Uruguay Apertura | Club Atletico Progreso | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Boston River |
| 30/01/26 Uruguay Copa de la Liga | Boston River | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Club Atletico Progreso |
| 01/09/25 Uruguay Clausura | Boston River | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Club Atletico Progreso |
| 19/06/25 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Club Atletico Progreso | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Boston River |
| 09/03/25 Uruguay Apertura | Club Atletico Progreso | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Boston River |
| 16/10/24 Uruguay Clausura | Boston River | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Club Atletico Progreso |
Standings · Uruguay Clausura · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montevideo Wanderers | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 15 |
| 2 | Nacional De Football | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 12 |
| 4 | Torque | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
| 5 | Juventud De Las Piedras | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 8 |
| 6 | Albion FC | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
| 7 | Club Atletico Progreso | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 6 |
| 8 | Danubio | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 4 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Boston River | Club Atletico Progreso |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool Montevideo | 0-1 L | 1-3 L |
| Cerro | 1-1 D | 1-3 L |
| Albion FC | 3-2 W | 1-0 W |
| Danubio | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Nacional De Football | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 1 L | 2 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Boston River (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Boston River
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 2-3 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 07/09 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 29/08 | Cerro Uruguay Clausura |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 21/08 | Albion FC Uruguay Clausura |
2-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 15/08 | Danubio Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 09/08 | Nacional De Football Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 09/11 | Cerro Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 01/11 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 27/10 | Miramar Misiones Uruguay Clausura |
4-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 18/10 | Danubio Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
Club Atletico Progreso
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Cerro Uruguay Clausura |
0-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 07/09 | Albion FC Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Danubio Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 23/08 | Nacional De Football Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 16/08 | Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 08/08 | Central Espanol Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 09/11 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 01/11 | Torque Uruguay Clausura |
0-3 | 0-5 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 26/10 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 19/10 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Clausura |
1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Boston River vs Club Atletico Progreso?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Boston River win (47%). Probabilities: Boston River 47%, draw 29%, Club Atletico Progreso 24%.
How many goals are expected in Boston River vs Club Atletico Progreso?
The model expects 2.38 goals (Boston River 1.43 · Club Atletico Progreso 0.94), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Boston River vs Club Atletico Progreso?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.