Football · Brazil Serie A · 03/10, 01:00

Prediction: Sao Paulo vs Santos

Team pages: Sao Paulo · Santos

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.27Total

Sao Paulo1.36

Santos0.91

1X2

46% 29% 24%

Sao Paulo Draw Santos

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Sao Paulo 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLDLDLWWLW

Santos 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLDLWDWWWW

Head-to-head

Sao Paulo 2–1–3 Santos (6 last)

Santos1-1Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo2-0Santos
Santos1-0Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo2-1Santos
Santos3-1Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo0-1Santos

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sao Paulo 1496 · Santos 1535

	Sao Paulo	Draw	Santos
Our model	46%	30%	24%
Market	47%	29%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.27 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Santos: 3-1-2.
High corners: 12.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sao Paulo	Santos
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.1	1.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.2	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 6.6	2.1 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	5.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.25

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.03
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.45 ★
2	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
02:15 +4’	2.00	3.25	3.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:03 +76’	2.03	3.45	3.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sao Paulo 2–1–3 Santos

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/02/26 Brazil Serie A	Santos	1-1 HT 1-0	Sao Paulo
01/02/26 Brazil Campeonato Paulista	Sao Paulo	2-0 HT 0-0	Santos
22/09/25 Brazil Serie A	Santos	1-0 HT 0-0	Sao Paulo
20/04/25 Brazil Serie A	Sao Paulo	2-1 HT 2-1	Santos
02/02/25 Brazil Campeonato Paulista	Santos	3-1 HT 1-1	Sao Paulo
14/02/24 Brazil Campeonato Paulista	Sao Paulo	0-1 HT 0-0	Santos

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Flamengo	28	18	6	4	55	23	60
2	Palmeiras	28	16	9	3	47	21	57
3	Athletico Paranaense	28	14	7	7	43	32	49
4	Fluminense	28	13	9	6	44	36	48
5	EC Bahia	28	12	10	6	43	35	46
6	Cruzeiro	28	13	6	9	42	40	45
7	Atletico Mineiro	27	11	7	9	36	32	40
8	Santos	27	10	8	9	41	40	38
9	Coritiba	28	10	8	10	37	43	38
10	Bragantino	27	10	6	11	33	31	36
11	Sao Paulo	27	10	6	11	32	30	36
12	Botafogo	28	9	8	11	41	45	35
13	Vitoria	28	9	6	13	28	42	33
14	Corinthians	28	8	8	12	29	32	32
15	Mirassol	28	8	8	12	33	42	32
16	Vasco da Gama	27	8	7	12	34	41	31
17	Gremio	28	7	8	13	30	38	29
18	Internacional	28	6	10	12	30	36	28
19	Remo	28	5	8	15	32	47	23
20	Chapecoense	27	3	9	15	29	53	18

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sao Paulo	Santos
Internacional	1-0 W	3-2 W
Chapecoense	0-1 L	2-2 D
Athletico Paranaense	1-2 L	0-2 L
Remo	0-1 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Santos (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sao Paulo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Internacional Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
12/09	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-2	6	6	L
05/09	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-0	16	2	W
30/08	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-1	9	5	W
23/08	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
16/08	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
08/08	Gremio Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-2	7	7	L
26/07	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
23/07	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-2	7	1	L
01/06	Remo Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	7	3	L

Santos

WLDLWDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Remo Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-1	4	7	W
13/09	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-1	13	5	W
06/09	Internacional Brazil Serie A	3-0	3-2	2	9	W
30/08	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	1	6	W
23/08	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	10	6	D
16/08	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	0-0	3-0	2	2	W
09/08	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	0-2	0-2	10	2	L
25/07	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-2	12	7	D
17/07	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	6	6	L
31/05	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-1	1	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sao Paulo vs Santos?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sao Paulo win (46%). Probabilities: Sao Paulo 46%, draw 29%, Santos 24%.

How many goals are expected in Sao Paulo vs Santos?

The model expects 2.27 goals (Sao Paulo 1.36 · Santos 0.91), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sao Paulo vs Santos?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.