Prediction: Palmeiras vs Corinthians
Team pages: Palmeiras · Corinthians
- Corinthians0-0Palmeiras
- Corinthians0-1Palmeiras
- Corinthians1-1Palmeiras
- Palmeiras0-2Corinthians
- Corinthians1-0Palmeiras
- Palmeiras2-0Corinthians
| Palmeiras | Draw | Corinthians | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 29% | 15% |
| Market | 57% | 26% | 17% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Palmeiras (rating 1555 vs 1418).
- High corners: 12.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Palmeiras | Corinthians | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 0.7 | 0.9 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.1 | 0.2 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/70/0% | 0/50/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 6.4 | 1.9 / 6.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.5 | 6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Palmeiras 2–2–2 Corinthians
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/26 Brazil Serie A | Corinthians | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Palmeiras |
| 09/02/26 Brazil Campeonato Paulista | Corinthians | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Palmeiras |
| 31/08/25 Brazil Serie A | Corinthians | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Palmeiras |
| 07/08/25 Copa do Brasil | Palmeiras | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Corinthians |
| 31/07/25 Copa do Brasil | Corinthians | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Palmeiras |
| 12/04/25 Brazil Serie A | Palmeiras | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Corinthians |
Standings · Brazil Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 29 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 57 | 25 | 61 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 29 | 17 | 9 | 3 | 48 | 21 | 60 |
| 3 | Fluminense | 29 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 48 | 36 | 51 |
| 4 | Athletico Paranaense | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 45 | 34 | 50 |
| 5 | Cruzeiro | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 44 | 40 | 48 |
| 6 | EC Bahia | 29 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 43 | 36 | 46 |
| 7 | Atletico Mineiro | 29 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 39 | 34 | 44 |
| 8 | Santos | 29 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 45 | 43 | 42 |
| 9 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 35 | 35 | 39 |
| 10 | Coritiba | 29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 37 | 47 | 38 |
| 11 | Bragantino | 29 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 34 | 33 | 37 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 33 | 44 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 42 | 47 | 35 |
| 14 | Vasco da Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 36 | 42 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 34 | 43 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 30 | 34 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 32 | 37 | 31 |
| 18 | Gremio | 29 | 7 | 9 | 13 | 31 | 39 | 30 |
| 19 | Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 33 | 48 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 28 | 3 | 9 | 16 | 29 | 57 | 18 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Palmeiras | Corinthians |
|---|---|---|
| EC Bahia | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Fluminense | 2-3 L | 1-3 L |
| Internacional | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 1 L | 0 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Palmeiras (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Palmeiras
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | EC Bahia Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 20/09 | Gremio Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 10 | D |
| 12/09 | Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 06/09 | Botafogo Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 30/08 | Mirassol Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 23/08 | Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 15/08 | Fluminense Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 09/08 | Internacional Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 30/07 | Vitoria Brazil Serie A |
2-0 | 4-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 27/07 | Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-2 | 10 | 3 | L |
Corinthians
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10 | Internacional Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 12 | 9 | L |
| 20/09 | Fluminense Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-3 | 11 | 8 | L |
| 13/09 | Flamengo Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 6 | L |
| 07/09 | Chapecoense Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 30/08 | Santos Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 24/08 | Coritiba Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 14 | 4 | L |
| 17/08 | Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 09/08 | Bragantino Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 31/07 | Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 26/07 | EC Bahia Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Palmeiras vs Corinthians?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Palmeiras win (57%). Probabilities: Palmeiras 57%, draw 27%, Corinthians 16%.
How many goals are expected in Palmeiras vs Corinthians?
The model expects 2.15 goals (Palmeiras 1.49 · Corinthians 0.66), with a 57% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Corinthians?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.