Football · Wales Championship South · 06/10, 20:30

Prediction: Pontypridd Utd vs Llantwit Major

Team pages: Pontypridd Utd · Llantwit Major

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.52Total

Pontypridd Utd2.27

Llantwit Major1.25

1X2

60% 21% 20%

Pontypridd Utd Draw Llantwit Major

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Pontypridd Utd 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DDWWWWDLWL

Llantwit Major 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDLLLLLDWW

Head-to-head

Pontypridd Utd 1–2–3 Llantwit Major (6 last)

Pontypridd Utd0-4Llantwit Major
Llantwit Major2-0Pontypridd Utd
Llantwit Major1-1Pontypridd Utd
Pontypridd Utd1-1Llantwit Major
Llantwit Major3-1Pontypridd Utd
Pontypridd Utd4-0Llantwit Major

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pontypridd Utd 1499 · Llantwit Major 1489

	Pontypridd Utd	Draw	Llantwit Major
Our model	59%	21%	19%
Market	60%	20%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.52 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Llantwit Major: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pontypridd Utd	Llantwit Major
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.7	1 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.7 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 5.7	1.8 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.50

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.00

2 (+1.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:44 +32’	1.50	4.50	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Pontypridd Utd 1–2–3 Llantwit Major

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/03/26 Wales Championship South	Pontypridd Utd	0-4 HT 0-0	Llantwit Major
11/10/25 Wales Championship South	Llantwit Major	2-0 HT 2-0	Pontypridd Utd
23/11/24 Wales Championship South	Llantwit Major	1-1 HT 0-0	Pontypridd Utd
07/09/24 Wales Championship South	Pontypridd Utd	1-1 HT 0-0	Llantwit Major
12/02/22 Wales Championship South	Llantwit Major	3-1	Pontypridd Utd
23/10/21 Wales Championship South	Pontypridd Utd	4-0	Llantwit Major

Standings · Wales Championship South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pure Swansea	8	6	2	0	25	6	20
2	Aberystwyth	8	6	1	1	22	8	19
3	Pontypridd Utd	8	5	1	2	19	15	16
4	Caerau Ely	9	5	1	3	21	18	16
5	Baglan Dragons	10	5	1	4	11	11	16
6	Carmarthen	9	4	2	3	20	19	14
7	Ynyshir Albions	8	3	4	1	9	7	13
8	Treowen Stars	9	4	1	4	18	18	13
9	Afan Lido	10	3	2	5	13	17	11
10	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	9	2	4	3	17	17	10
11	Pontardawe Town	8	3	0	5	14	16	9
12	Newport City FC	7	2	2	3	10	6	8
13	Cardiff Draconians	7	2	2	3	9	12	8
14	Caerphilly Athletic	9	2	2	5	9	17	8
15	Llantwit Major	7	2	1	4	6	16	7
16	Llanelli Town	10	0	2	8	7	27	2

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pontypridd Utd	Llantwit Major
Aberystwyth	1-3 L	1-5 L
Afan Lido	0-1 L	0-5 L
Pure Swansea	4-4 D	0-3 L
Treowen Stars	3-2 W	1-1 D
Caerau Ely	0-0 D	1-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Pontypridd Utd (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pontypridd Utd

DDWWWWDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	0-1	1-3	10	2	L
25/09	Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South	2-1	2-1	4	2	W
11/09	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
28/08	Pure Swansea Wales Championship South	0-1	4-4	–	–	D
21/08	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	2-0	2-1	4	0	W
15/08	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	1-1	4-1	3	2	W
07/08	Pontardawe Town Wales Championship South	1-2	3-2	9	3	W
01/08	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	2-0	3-2	6	4	W
18/04	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
11/04	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	1-0	2-2	2	8	D

Llantwit Major

LDLLLLLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/10	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	1-1	2-1	9	5	W
26/09	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
12/09	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
22/08	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	0-2	1-5	3	3	L
15/08	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	0-1	0-1	2	8	L
07/08	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	0-1	0-5	3	7	L
01/08	Pure Swansea Wales Championship South	0-1	0-3	3	2	L
18/04	Cambrian United Wales Championship South	1-2	1-3	4	6	L
04/04	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	2-1	2-2	7	4	D
28/03	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	0-1	1-4	6	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pontypridd Utd vs Llantwit Major?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Pontypridd Utd win (60%). Probabilities: Pontypridd Utd 60%, draw 21%, Llantwit Major 20%.

How many goals are expected in Pontypridd Utd vs Llantwit Major?

The model expects 3.52 goals (Pontypridd Utd 2.27 · Llantwit Major 1.25), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Pontypridd Utd vs Llantwit Major?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.