Football · Wales Championship South · 10/10, 15:30

Prediction: Baglan Dragons vs Pontypridd Utd

Team pages: Baglan Dragons · Pontypridd Utd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.62Total

Baglan Dragons1.21

Pontypridd Utd1.41

1X2

32% 26% 41%

Baglan Dragons Draw Pontypridd Utd

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Baglan Dragons 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

DLWWWLWLLW

Pontypridd Utd 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DDWWWWDLWL

Head-to-head

Baglan Dragons 1–1–2 Pontypridd Utd (4 last)

Pontypridd Utd2-0Baglan Dragons
Baglan Dragons3-0Pontypridd Utd
Pontypridd Utd1-0Baglan Dragons
Baglan Dragons2-2Pontypridd Utd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Baglan Dragons 1493 · Pontypridd Utd 1506

	Baglan Dragons	Draw	Pontypridd Utd
Our model	31%	29%	40%
Market	33%	25%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Pontypridd Utd: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Baglan Dragons	Pontypridd Utd
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.1	2.1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.7	3.3 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.60

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:51 +15’	2.70	3.60	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Baglan Dragons 1–1–2 Pontypridd Utd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/26 Wales Championship South	Pontypridd Utd	2-0 HT 0-0	Baglan Dragons
27/07/25 Wales Championship South	Baglan Dragons	3-0 HT 2-0	Pontypridd Utd
17/01/25 Wales Championship South	Pontypridd Utd	1-0 HT 1-0	Baglan Dragons
26/10/24 Wales Championship South	Baglan Dragons	2-2 HT 1-0	Pontypridd Utd

Standings · Wales Championship South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pure Swansea	8	6	2	0	25	6	20
2	Aberystwyth	8	6	1	1	22	8	19
3	Pontypridd Utd	8	5	1	2	19	15	16
4	Caerau Ely	9	5	1	3	21	18	16
5	Baglan Dragons	10	5	1	4	11	11	16
6	Carmarthen	9	4	2	3	20	19	14
7	Ynyshir Albions	8	3	4	1	9	7	13
8	Treowen Stars	9	4	1	4	18	18	13
9	Afan Lido	10	3	2	5	13	17	11
10	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	9	2	4	3	17	17	10
11	Pontardawe Town	8	3	0	5	14	16	9
12	Newport City FC	7	2	2	3	10	6	8
13	Cardiff Draconians	7	2	2	3	9	12	8
14	Caerphilly Athletic	9	2	2	5	9	17	8
15	Llantwit Major	7	2	1	4	6	16	7
16	Llanelli Town	10	0	2	8	7	27	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Baglan Dragons	Pontypridd Utd
Cardiff Draconians	1-2 L	4-1 W
Afan Lido	2-1 W	0-1 L
Caerphilly Athletic	0-1 L	2-1 W
Caerau Ely	3-1 W	0-0 D
Pure Swansea	0-3 L	4-4 D
Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	0-0 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Pontypridd Utd (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Baglan Dragons

DLWWWLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/10	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	0-1	2-1	14	5	W
25/09	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
12/09	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
04/09	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	2-0	2-1	4	6	W
31/08	Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
28/08	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	3-1	3-1	–	–	W
21/08	Newport City FC Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	0	1	W
15/08	Llantwit Major Wales Championship South	1-0	1-0	7	8	W
09/08	Pure Swansea Wales Championship South	0-2	0-3	2	1	L
31/07	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	0	0	D

Pontypridd Utd

DDWWWWDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	0-1	1-3	10	2	L
25/09	Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South	2-1	2-1	4	2	W
11/09	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
28/08	Pure Swansea Wales Championship South	0-1	4-4	–	–	D
21/08	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	2-0	2-1	4	0	W
15/08	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	1-1	4-1	3	2	W
07/08	Pontardawe Town Wales Championship South	1-2	3-2	9	3	W
01/08	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	2-0	3-2	6	4	W
18/04	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
11/04	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	1-0	2-2	2	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Baglan Dragons vs Pontypridd Utd?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Pontypridd Utd win (41%). Probabilities: Baglan Dragons 32%, draw 26%, Pontypridd Utd 41%.

How many goals are expected in Baglan Dragons vs Pontypridd Utd?

The model expects 2.62 goals (Baglan Dragons 1.21 · Pontypridd Utd 1.41), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Baglan Dragons vs Pontypridd Utd?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.