Football · Wales Championship South · 10/10, 15:30

Prediction: Aberystwyth vs Caerau Ely

Team pages: Aberystwyth · Caerau Ely

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.21Total

Aberystwyth1.68

Caerau Ely1.53

1X2

41% 25% 34%

Aberystwyth Draw Caerau Ely

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Aberystwyth 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Caerau Ely 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Aberystwyth 0–2 Caerau Ely (2 last)

Aberystwyth0-4Caerau Ely
Caerau Ely1-0Aberystwyth

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aberystwyth 1553 · Caerau Ely 1559

	Aberystwyth	Draw	Caerau Ely
Our model	40%	25%	34%
Market	41%	25%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 3.21 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Caerau Ely: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Aberystwyth	Caerau Ely
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.1	2.1 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.2	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.7	2.4 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.60

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
16:50 +15’	2.20	3.60	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Aberystwyth 0–0–2 Caerau Ely

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 Wales Championship South	Aberystwyth	0-4 HT 0-1	Caerau Ely
20/12/25 Wales Championship South	Caerau Ely	1-0 HT 0-0	Aberystwyth

Standings · Wales Championship South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pure Swansea	8	6	2	0	25	6	20
2	Aberystwyth	8	6	1	1	22	8	19
3	Pontypridd Utd	8	5	1	2	19	15	16
4	Caerau Ely	9	5	1	3	21	18	16
5	Baglan Dragons	10	5	1	4	11	11	16
6	Carmarthen	9	4	2	3	20	19	14
7	Ynyshir Albions	8	3	4	1	9	7	13
8	Treowen Stars	9	4	1	4	18	18	13
9	Afan Lido	10	3	2	5	13	17	11
10	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	9	2	4	3	17	17	10
11	Pontardawe Town	8	3	0	5	14	16	9
12	Newport City FC	7	2	2	3	10	6	8
13	Cardiff Draconians	7	2	2	3	9	12	8
14	Caerphilly Athletic	9	2	2	5	9	17	8
15	Llantwit Major	7	2	1	4	6	16	7
16	Llanelli Town	10	0	2	8	7	27	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aberystwyth	Caerau Ely
Pontypridd Utd	3-1 W	0-0 D
Pure Swansea	0-0 D	1-5 L
Llanelli Town	4-0 W	3-0 W
Treowen Stars	1-2 L	3-2 W
Afan Lido	5-2 W	2-0 W
Ynyshir Albions	0-0 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Aberystwyth (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aberystwyth

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	1-0	3-1	2	2	W
25/09	Pure Swansea Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
12/09	Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South	2-0	3-2	5	6	W
31/08	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	1-0	4-0	7	2	W
28/08	Pontardawe Town Wales Championship South	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
22/08	Llantwit Major Wales Championship South	2-0	5-1	3	3	W
08/08	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
01/08	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	1-1	5-2	8	8	W
18/04	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
11/04	Cwmbran Celtic Wales Championship South	0-1	1-3	7	6	L

Caerau Ely

DLDWLLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/10	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	0-0	2-0	7	4	W
26/09	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	1-0	3-1	2	2	W
11/09	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	1-0	3-0	3	3	W
31/08	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	0-1	3-2	–	–	W
28/08	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	1-3	1-3	–	–	L
21/08	Pure Swansea Wales Championship South	1-0	1-5	6	6	L
14/08	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	2-2	4-2	3	3	W
07/08	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
01/08	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	0-0	3-4	5	6	L
18/04	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	6	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aberystwyth vs Caerau Ely?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Aberystwyth win (41%). Probabilities: Aberystwyth 41%, draw 25%, Caerau Ely 34%.

How many goals are expected in Aberystwyth vs Caerau Ely?

The model expects 3.21 goals (Aberystwyth 1.68 · Caerau Ely 1.53), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Aberystwyth vs Caerau Ely?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.