Football · Wales Championship South · 10/10, 15:30

Prediction: Ynyshir Albions vs Llanelli Town

Team pages: Ynyshir Albions · Llanelli Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.73Total

Ynyshir Albions1.89

Llanelli Town0.84

1X2

62% 22% 16%

Ynyshir Albions Draw Llanelli Town

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Ynyshir Albions 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

LDWDLWDDDW

Llanelli Town 0-2-8 (W-D-L)

LDLLDLLLLL

Head-to-head

Ynyshir Albions 0–3 Llanelli Town (3 last)

Ynyshir Albions1-4Llanelli Town
Ynyshir Albions2-7Llanelli Town
Llanelli Town1-0Ynyshir Albions

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ynyshir Albions 1533 · Llanelli Town 1394

	Ynyshir Albions	Draw	Llanelli Town
Our model	61%	24%	15%
Market	63%	20%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 2.73 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ynyshir Albions (rating 1533 vs 1394).
H2H favours Llanelli Town: 3-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ynyshir Albions	Llanelli Town
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 0.9	0.7 / 2.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.4	0.6 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/80/20%	30/0/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 6	0.6 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.3	3.9 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.42

X4.50

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.90

2 (+1.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.42 → 1.42	Bet365 1.42
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
15:24 +23’	1.42	4.50	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ynyshir Albions 0–0–3 Llanelli Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/08/25 Wales League Cup	Ynyshir Albions	1-4 HT 1-2	Llanelli Town
10/04/23 Wales Championship South	Ynyshir Albions	2-7	Llanelli Town
26/08/22 Wales Championship South	Llanelli Town	1-0 HT 1-0	Ynyshir Albions

Standings · Wales Championship South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pure Swansea	8	6	2	0	25	6	20
2	Aberystwyth	8	6	1	1	22	8	19
3	Pontypridd Utd	8	5	1	2	19	15	16
4	Caerau Ely	9	5	1	3	21	18	16
5	Baglan Dragons	10	5	1	4	11	11	16
6	Carmarthen	9	4	2	3	20	19	14
7	Ynyshir Albions	8	3	4	1	9	7	13
8	Treowen Stars	9	4	1	4	18	18	13
9	Afan Lido	10	3	2	5	13	17	11
10	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	9	2	4	3	17	17	10
11	Pontardawe Town	8	3	0	5	14	16	9
12	Newport City FC	7	2	2	3	10	6	8
13	Cardiff Draconians	7	2	2	3	9	12	8
14	Caerphilly Athletic	9	2	2	5	9	17	8
15	Llantwit Major	7	2	1	4	6	16	7
16	Llanelli Town	10	0	2	8	7	27	2

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ynyshir Albions	Llanelli Town
Treowen Stars	2-1 W	0-2 L
Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	1-1 D	1-1 D
Carmarthen	2-2 D	2-2 D
Newport City FC	1-0 W	1-4 L
Caerau Ely	1-1 D	0-3 L
Cardiff Draconians	1-0 W	2-4 L
Aberystwyth	0-0 D	0-4 L
Record vs common	3 W 4 D 0 L	0 W 2 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Ynyshir Albions (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ynyshir Albions

LDWDLWDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	1-1	2-1	8	7	W
26/09	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	1-1	1-1	9	2	D
12/09	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	0-0	2-2	3	5	D
31/08	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
28/08	Newport City FC Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
22/08	Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South	0-1	1-2	8	4	L
07/08	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
01/08	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
18/04	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
04/04	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	0-1	0-2	6	4	L

Llanelli Town

LDLLDLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/10	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	1-0	1-2	0	5	L
26/09	Llantwit Major Wales Championship South	0-2	0-2	–	–	L
11/09	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	0-1	0-3	3	3	L
04/09	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
31/08	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	0-1	0-4	2	2	L
28/08	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	2-1	2-2	–	–	D
22/08	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	1-3	2-4	5	7	L
15/08	Pure Swansea Wales Championship South	0-1	0-3	4	1	L
07/08	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	1-0	1-1	3	7	D
31/07	Newport City FC Wales Championship South	1-3	1-4	3	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ynyshir Albions vs Llanelli Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ynyshir Albions win (62%). Probabilities: Ynyshir Albions 62%, draw 22%, Llanelli Town 16%.

How many goals are expected in Ynyshir Albions vs Llanelli Town?

The model expects 2.73 goals (Ynyshir Albions 1.89 · Llanelli Town 0.84), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Ynyshir Albions vs Llanelli Town?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.