Football · Wales Championship South · 10/10, 15:30

Prediction: Cardiff Draconians vs Carmarthen

Team pages: Cardiff Draconians · Carmarthen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.01Total

Cardiff Draconians1.93

Carmarthen2.08

1X2

36% 23% 41%

Cardiff Draconians Draw Carmarthen

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Cardiff Draconians 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDWLDLWWLD

Carmarthen 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWWWLDLDWL

Head-to-head

Cardiff Draconians 0–2 Carmarthen (2 last)

Cardiff Draconians2-3Carmarthen
Carmarthen2-1Cardiff Draconians

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cardiff Draconians 1490 · Carmarthen 1511

	Cardiff Draconians	Draw	Carmarthen
Our model	36%	22%	42%
Market	35%	24%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 4.01 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Carmarthen: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cardiff Draconians	Carmarthen
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.9	2.1 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.7	2.8 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.4	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.75

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 4.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:53 +12’	2.55	3.75	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cardiff Draconians 0–0–2 Carmarthen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Wales Championship South	Cardiff Draconians	2-3 HT 2-3	Carmarthen
09/08/25 Wales Championship South	Carmarthen	2-1 HT 1-0	Cardiff Draconians

Standings · Wales Championship South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pure Swansea	8	6	2	0	25	6	20
2	Aberystwyth	8	6	1	1	22	8	19
3	Pontypridd Utd	8	5	1	2	19	15	16
4	Caerau Ely	9	5	1	3	21	18	16
5	Baglan Dragons	10	5	1	4	11	11	16
6	Carmarthen	9	4	2	3	20	19	14
7	Ynyshir Albions	8	3	4	1	9	7	13
8	Treowen Stars	9	4	1	4	18	18	13
9	Afan Lido	10	3	2	5	13	17	11
10	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	9	2	4	3	17	17	10
11	Pontardawe Town	8	3	0	5	14	16	9
12	Newport City FC	7	2	2	3	10	6	8
13	Cardiff Draconians	7	2	2	3	9	12	8
14	Caerphilly Athletic	9	2	2	5	9	17	8
15	Llantwit Major	7	2	1	4	6	16	7
16	Llanelli Town	10	0	2	8	7	27	2

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cardiff Draconians	Carmarthen
Newport City FC	1-1 D	2-1 W
Caerau Ely	1-3 L	4-3 W
Baglan Dragons	2-1 W	2-1 W
Llanelli Town	4-2 W	2-2 D
Ynyshir Albions	0-1 L	2-2 D
Afan Lido	4-1 W	3-1 W
Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	4-4 D	2-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 2 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cardiff Draconians

DDWLDLWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Newport City FC Wales Championship South	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
26/09	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	0-1	1-3	2	2	L
12/09	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
22/08	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	3-1	4-2	5	7	W
15/08	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	1-1	1-4	3	2	L
07/08	Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
01/08	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	0-0	0-1	9	7	L
18/04	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	1-1	4-1	3	5	W
11/04	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	0-1	2-2	4	8	D
04/04	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	2-2	4-4	3	4	D

Carmarthen

LWWWLDLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/10	Llantwit Major Wales Championship South	1-1	1-2	2	5	L
25/09	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	1-0	2-1	5	5	W
12/09	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	0-0	2-2	3	5	D
31/08	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	1-3	2-3	6	1	L
28/08	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	1-2	2-2	–	–	D
22/08	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	1-0	2-4	0	0	L
14/08	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	1-1	3-1	4	5	W
08/08	Newport City FC Wales Championship South	2-0	2-1	3	2	W
01/08	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	0-0	4-3	7	6	W
18/04	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	0-0	1-4	8	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cardiff Draconians vs Carmarthen?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Carmarthen win (41%). Probabilities: Cardiff Draconians 36%, draw 23%, Carmarthen 41%.

How many goals are expected in Cardiff Draconians vs Carmarthen?

The model expects 4.01 goals (Cardiff Draconians 1.93 · Carmarthen 2.08), with a 55% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Cardiff Draconians vs Carmarthen?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.