Football · Wales Championship South · 03/10, 15:30

Prediction: Treowen Stars vs Ynyshir Albions

Team pages: Treowen Stars · Ynyshir Albions

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.96Total

Treowen Stars1.6

Ynyshir Albions1.37

1X2

42% 25% 32%

Treowen Stars Draw Ynyshir Albions

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Treowen Stars 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWWWLWDL

Ynyshir Albions 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

DLDWDLWDDD

Head-to-head

Treowen Stars 1–1–0 Ynyshir Albions (2 last)

Ynyshir Albions1-1Treowen Stars
Treowen Stars3-0Ynyshir Albions

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Treowen Stars 1525 · Ynyshir Albions 1503

	Treowen Stars	Draw	Ynyshir Albions
Our model	42%	27%	32%
Market	43%	24%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.96 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Treowen Stars	Ynyshir Albions
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 2.3	0.9 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.2	0.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4	3.4 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	4.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.70

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
16:30 +3’	2.10	3.70	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Treowen Stars 1–1–0 Ynyshir Albions

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 Wales Championship South	Ynyshir Albions	1-1 HT 0-0	Treowen Stars
15/11/25 Wales Championship South	Treowen Stars	3-0 HT 3-0	Ynyshir Albions

Standings · Wales Championship South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pure Swansea	7	5	2	0	22	5	17
2	Aberystwyth	7	5	1	1	19	7	16
3	Pontypridd Utd	7	5	1	1	18	12	16
4	Carmarthen	8	4	2	2	19	17	14
5	Caerau Ely	8	4	1	3	19	18	13
6	Treowen Stars	8	4	1	3	17	16	13
7	Baglan Dragons	9	4	1	4	9	10	13
8	Afan Lido	9	3	2	4	13	15	11
9	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	8	2	4	2	15	14	10
10	Ynyshir Albions	7	2	4	1	7	6	10
11	Caerphilly Athletic	8	2	2	4	8	14	8
12	Newport City FC	6	2	1	3	9	5	7
13	Cardiff Draconians	6	2	1	3	8	11	7
14	Pontardawe Town	7	2	0	5	11	14	6
15	Llantwit Major	6	1	1	4	4	15	4
16	Llanelli Town	9	0	2	7	6	25	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Treowen Stars	Ynyshir Albions
Caerau Ely	2-3 L	1-1 D
Carmarthen	4-2 W	2-2 D
Caerphilly Athletic	3-0 W	1-2 L
Aberystwyth	2-1 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Treowen Stars (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Treowen Stars

LWLWWWLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Pontardawe Town Wales Championship South	1-5	1-6	–	–	L
12/09	Llantwit Major Wales Championship South	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
04/09	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
31/08	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	1-0	2-3	–	–	L
22/08	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	0-1	4-2	6	0	W
15/08	Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
08/08	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	0-0	2-1	5	4	W
01/08	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	0-2	2-3	5	4	L
18/04	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	0-0	4-1	4	5	W
03/04	Trefelin BGC Wales Championship South	0-3	0-6	2	1	L

Ynyshir Albions

DLDWDLWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	1-1	1-1	9	2	D
12/09	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	0-0	2-2	3	5	D
31/08	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
28/08	Newport City FC Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
22/08	Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South	0-1	1-2	8	4	L
07/08	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
01/08	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
18/04	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
04/04	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
28/03	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	2-1	2-2	6	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Treowen Stars vs Ynyshir Albions?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Treowen Stars win (42%). Probabilities: Treowen Stars 42%, draw 25%, Ynyshir Albions 32%.

How many goals are expected in Treowen Stars vs Ynyshir Albions?

The model expects 2.96 goals (Treowen Stars 1.6 · Ynyshir Albions 1.37), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Treowen Stars vs Ynyshir Albions?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.