Football · Wales Championship South · 10/10, 15:30

Prediction: Treowen Stars vs Trethomas Bluebirds AFC

Team pages: Treowen Stars · Trethomas Bluebirds AFC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.77Total

Treowen Stars2.06

Trethomas Bluebirds AFC1.71

1X2

45% 23% 32%

Treowen Stars Draw Trethomas Bluebirds AFC

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Treowen Stars 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DDDLLWWDDL

Head-to-head

Treowen Stars 1–1–0 Trethomas Bluebirds AFC (2 last)

Treowen Stars2-0Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
Trethomas Bluebirds AFC1-1Treowen Stars

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Treowen Stars 1511 · Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 1497

	Treowen Stars	Draw	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
Our model	45%	23%	32%
Market	45%	24%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.77 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Treowen Stars	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.9	1.8 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1	1.1 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 4.9	1.7 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	2.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.80

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:57 +8’	2.00	3.80	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Treowen Stars 1–1–0 Trethomas Bluebirds AFC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/12/25 Wales Championship South	Treowen Stars	2-0 HT 0-0	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
25/08/25 Wales Championship South	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	1-1 HT 0-0	Treowen Stars

Standings · Wales Championship South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pure Swansea	8	6	2	0	25	6	20
2	Aberystwyth	8	6	1	1	22	8	19
3	Pontypridd Utd	8	5	1	2	19	15	16
4	Caerau Ely	9	5	1	3	21	18	16
5	Baglan Dragons	10	5	1	4	11	11	16
6	Carmarthen	9	4	2	3	20	19	14
7	Ynyshir Albions	8	3	4	1	9	7	13
8	Treowen Stars	9	4	1	4	18	18	13
9	Afan Lido	10	3	2	5	13	17	11
10	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	9	2	4	3	17	17	10
11	Pontardawe Town	8	3	0	5	14	16	9
12	Newport City FC	7	2	2	3	10	6	8
13	Cardiff Draconians	7	2	2	3	9	12	8
14	Caerphilly Athletic	9	2	2	5	9	17	8
15	Llantwit Major	7	2	1	4	6	16	7
16	Llanelli Town	10	0	2	8	7	27	2

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Treowen Stars	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
Ynyshir Albions	1-2 L	1-1 D
Pontardawe Town	1-6 L	2-3 L
Llanelli Town	2-0 W	1-1 D
Caerau Ely	2-3 L	2-4 L
Carmarthen	4-2 W	3-2 W
Caerphilly Athletic	3-0 W	2-2 D
Pontypridd Utd	2-3 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 4 L	1 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Treowen Stars (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Treowen Stars

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	1-1	1-2	8	7	L
26/09	Pontardawe Town Wales Championship South	1-5	1-6	–	–	L
12/09	Llantwit Major Wales Championship South	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
04/09	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
31/08	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	1-0	2-3	–	–	L
22/08	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	0-1	4-2	6	0	W
15/08	Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
08/08	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	0-0	2-1	5	4	W
01/08	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	0-2	2-3	5	4	L
18/04	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	0-0	4-1	4	5	W

Trethomas Bluebirds AFC

DDDLLWWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Pontardawe Town Wales Championship South	1-2	2-3	3	2	L
26/09	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
04/09	Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South	1-1	2-2	2	1	D
31/08	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	3-1	3-2	5	1	W
28/08	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	3-1	5-2	–	–	W
21/08	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	0-2	1-2	3	0	L
14/08	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	2-2	2-4	6	3	L
07/08	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	0-1	1-1	6	7	D
31/07	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	5	0	D
18/04	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	0-1	1-1	6	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Treowen Stars vs Trethomas Bluebirds AFC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Treowen Stars win (45%). Probabilities: Treowen Stars 45%, draw 23%, Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 32%.

How many goals are expected in Treowen Stars vs Trethomas Bluebirds AFC?

The model expects 3.77 goals (Treowen Stars 2.06 · Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 1.71), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Treowen Stars vs Trethomas Bluebirds AFC?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.