Football · Spain Tercera Group 2 · 03/10, 17:00
Prediction: UC Ceares vs El San Martin
Team pages: UC Ceares · El San Martin
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.64Total
UC Ceares1.48
El San Martin1.16
1X2
UC Ceares
Draw
El San Martin
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
UC Ceares
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
El San Martin
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
UC Ceares
2–4
El San Martin
(6 last)
- UC Ceares0-1El San Martin
- El San Martin2-1UC Ceares
- UC Ceares2-0El San Martin
- El San Martin0-2UC Ceares
- UC Ceares1-4El San Martin
- El San Martin3-1UC Ceares
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · UC Ceares 1471 · El San Martin 1494
| UC Ceares | Draw | El San Martin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 28% | 29% |
| Market | 43% | 29% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours El San Martin: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| UC Ceares | El San Martin | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.8 | 0.9 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.8 | 0.7 / 0 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 33/33/33% | 50/50/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.8 / 2 | 4 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0.3 | 4.5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · UC Ceares 2–0–4 El San Martin
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04/26 Spain Tercera Group 2 | UC Ceares | 0-1 HT 0-1 | El San Martin |
| 23/11/25 Spain Tercera Group 2 | El San Martin | 2-1 | UC Ceares |
| 19/01/25 Spain Tercera Group 2 | UC Ceares | 2-0 HT 1-0 | El San Martin |
| 08/09/24 Spain Tercera Group 2 | El San Martin | 0-2 HT 0-1 | UC Ceares |
| 02/05/21 Spain Tercera Group 2 | UC Ceares | 1-4 | El San Martin |
| 11/04/21 Spain Tercera Group 2 | El San Martin | 3-1 | UC Ceares |
Standings · Spain Tercera Group 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting Gijon B | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 12 |
| 2 | Mosconia | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 10 |
| 3 | Condal | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 10 |
| 4 | Covadonga | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | Siero | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
| 6 | CD Colunga | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 9 |
| 7 | Caudal | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 9 |
| 8 | UP Langreo | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 7 |
| 9 | Gijon Industrial | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| 10 | Lealtad | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| 11 | L'Entregu CF | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 3 |
| 12 | Aviles Stadium CF | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 3 |
| 13 | UC Ceares | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 3 |
| 14 | Praviano | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 3 |
| 15 | Llanes | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 2 |
| 16 | El San Martin | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 2 |
| 17 | Andes CF | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| 18 | Oviedo Astur | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | UC Ceares | El San Martin |
|---|---|---|
| CD Colunga | 3-4 L | 3-2 W |
| Gijon Industrial | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 0 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
UC Ceares
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09 | Siero Spain Tercera Group 2 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 9 | L |
| 20/09 | CD Colunga Spain Tercera Group 2 |
2-0 | 3-4 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 13/09 | Caudal Spain Tercera Group 2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 06/09 | UP Langreo Spain Tercera Group 2 |
2-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 10/05 | Siero Spain Tercera Group 2 |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 03/05 | SD Navarro CF Spain Tercera Group 2 |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 26/04 | Gijon Industrial Spain Tercera Group 2 |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 18/04 | Praviano Spain Tercera Group 2 |
– | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 12/04 | Lenense Spain Tercera Group 2 |
2-2 | 2-4 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 03/04 | El San Martin Spain Tercera Group 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
El San Martin
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Oviedo Astur Spain Tercera Group 2 |
2-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 20/09 | Andes CF Spain Tercera Group 2 |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 13/09 | Condal Spain Tercera Group 2 |
– | 0-4 | – | – | L |
| 06/09 | Gijon Industrial Spain Tercera Group 2 |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 10/05 | Llanes Spain Tercera Group 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 03/05 | Sporting Gijon B Spain Tercera Group 2 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 26/04 | L'Entregu CF Spain Tercera Group 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 8 | W |
| 19/04 | CD Colunga Spain Tercera Group 2 |
– | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 12/04 | Mosconia Spain Tercera Group 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 9 | L |
| 03/04 | UC Ceares Spain Tercera Group 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in UC Ceares vs El San Martin?
According to our model, the most likely result is a UC Ceares win (43%). Probabilities: UC Ceares 43%, draw 29%, El San Martin 28%.
How many goals are expected in UC Ceares vs El San Martin?
The model expects 2.64 goals (UC Ceares 1.48 · El San Martin 1.16), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in UC Ceares vs El San Martin?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.