Football · Spain Tercera Group 2 · 11/10, 12:00

Prediction: Aviles Stadium CF vs Llanes

Team pages: Aviles Stadium CF · Llanes

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.28Total

Aviles Stadium CF1.18

Llanes1.1

1X2

37% 29% 33%

Aviles Stadium CF Draw Llanes

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Aviles Stadium CF 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

DLLDLLLWLL

Llanes 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLLDDD

Head-to-head

Aviles Stadium CF 2–3–1 Llanes (6 last)

Aviles Stadium CF0-1Llanes
Llanes1-1Aviles Stadium CF
Aviles Stadium CF2-1Llanes
Llanes0-0Aviles Stadium CF
Llanes2-2Aviles Stadium CF
Aviles Stadium CF1-0Llanes

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aviles Stadium CF 1419 · Llanes 1426

	Aviles Stadium CF	Draw	Llanes
Our model	36%	31%	33%
Market	38%	28%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.28 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Aviles Stadium CF: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Aviles Stadium CF	Llanes
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 1.9	0.8 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 1.1	0 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/38/63%	0/0/100%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.8	– / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.4	4 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.20

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Pinn 2.38
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.63 → 2.63	Pinn 2.92 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
11:16 +5’	2.38	3.20	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:11 +214’	2.35	3.00	2.88
10:04 +1’	2.38▲	3.04▲	2.92▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Aviles Stadium CF 2–3–1 Llanes

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Spain Tercera Group 2	Aviles Stadium CF	0-1	Llanes
21/12/25 Spain Tercera Group 2	Llanes	1-1	Aviles Stadium CF
18/02/24 Spain Tercera Group 2	Aviles Stadium CF	2-1 HT 0-1	Llanes
01/10/23 Spain Tercera Group 2	Llanes	0-0	Aviles Stadium CF
22/01/23 Spain Tercera Group 2	Llanes	2-2	Aviles Stadium CF
18/09/22 Spain Tercera Group 2	Aviles Stadium CF	1-0 HT 0-0	Llanes

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Covadonga	5	4	1	0	14	4	13
2	Sporting Gijon B	5	4	1	0	9	4	13
3	Mosconia	6	3	3	0	10	3	12
4	Siero	6	4	0	2	9	3	12
5	Condal	5	3	2	0	8	2	11
6	CD Colunga	6	3	2	1	14	12	11
7	Caudal	5	3	1	1	8	6	10
8	Lealtad	6	3	1	2	6	4	10
9	UP Langreo	6	2	2	2	10	9	8
10	Gijon Industrial	5	2	1	2	8	6	7
11	Praviano	6	1	2	3	11	13	5
12	El San Martin	5	1	2	2	5	10	5
13	UC Ceares	6	1	1	4	9	13	4
14	L'Entregu CF	6	1	1	4	2	9	4
15	Llanes	5	0	3	2	6	12	3
16	Aviles Stadium CF	5	1	0	4	2	9	3
17	Oviedo Astur	5	0	2	3	3	8	2
18	Andes CF	5	0	1	4	2	9	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aviles Stadium CF	Llanes
Lealtad	0-2 L	1-1 D
Sporting Gijon B	1-2 L	1-3 L
Covadonga	0-4 L	1-4 L
UD Llanera	1-2 L	0-1 L
Real Titanico Laviana	2-2 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 4 L	0 W 1 D 4 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aviles Stadium CF

DLLDLLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Lealtad Spain Tercera Group 2	0-1	0-2	10	4	L
27/09	Sporting Gijon B Spain Tercera Group 2	0-2	1-2	5	7	L
20/09	Praviano Spain Tercera Group 2	–	1-0	–	–	W
13/09	L'Entregu CF Spain Tercera Group 2	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
06/09	Covadonga Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	0-4	2	4	L
10/05	UD Llanera Spain Tercera Group 2	0-1	1-2	1	1	L
03/05	Real Titanico Laviana Spain Tercera Group 2	1-1	2-2	3	4	D
26/04	Llanes Spain Tercera Group 2	–	0-1	–	–	L
19/04	Sporting Gijon B Spain Tercera Group 2	0-3	0-5	3	2	L
12/04	L'Entregu CF Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	0-0	2	5	D

Llanes

LLWLLLLDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Condal Spain Tercera Group 2	–	1-1	–	–	D
27/09	Lealtad Spain Tercera Group 2	–	1-1	–	–	D
20/09	Gijon Industrial Spain Tercera Group 2	–	2-2	–	–	D
13/09	Sporting Gijon B Spain Tercera Group 2	–	1-3	–	–	L
06/09	Mosconia Spain Tercera Group 2	–	1-5	–	–	L
10/05	El San Martin Spain Tercera Group 2	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
03/05	Covadonga Spain Tercera Group 2	–	1-4	–	–	L
26/04	Aviles Stadium CF Spain Tercera Group 2	–	1-0	–	–	W
19/04	UD Llanera Spain Tercera Group 2	–	0-1	–	–	L
12/04	Real Titanico Laviana Spain Tercera Group 2	0-1	0-2	2	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aviles Stadium CF vs Llanes?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Aviles Stadium CF win (37%). Probabilities: Aviles Stadium CF 37%, draw 29%, Llanes 33%.

How many goals are expected in Aviles Stadium CF vs Llanes?

The model expects 2.28 goals (Aviles Stadium CF 1.18 · Llanes 1.1), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Aviles Stadium CF vs Llanes?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.