Football · Spain Tercera Group 2 · 04/10, 12:30
Prediction: Covadonga vs Siero
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.29Total
Covadonga2.29
Siero1
1X2
Covadonga
Draw
Siero
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
2-0 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Covadonga
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Siero
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Covadonga
2–1–3
Siero
(6 last)
- Covadonga5-0Siero
- Siero2-1Covadonga
- Covadonga3-3Siero
- Covadonga0-3Siero
- Siero2-0Covadonga
- Covadonga3-1Siero
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Covadonga 1543 · Siero 1542
| Covadonga | Draw | Siero | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 20% | 14% |
| Market | 66% | 20% | 14% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.29 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Siero: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Covadonga | Siero | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.7 / 0.6 | 1.1 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 38/38/25% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1 / 4.5 | 3.5 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.1 | 5.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Covadonga 2–1–3 Siero
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/26 Spain Tercera Group 2 | Covadonga | 5-0 HT 2-0 | Siero |
| 02/11/25 Spain Tercera Group 2 | Siero | 2-1 | Covadonga |
| 15/12/19 Spain Tercera Group 2 | Covadonga | 3-3 HT 0-1 | Siero |
| 24/02/19 Spain Tercera Group 2 | Covadonga | 0-3 | Siero |
| 07/10/18 Spain Tercera Group 2 | Siero | 2-0 | Covadonga |
| 25/03/18 Spain Tercera Group 2 | Covadonga | 3-1 | Siero |
Standings · Spain Tercera Group 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting Gijon B | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 12 |
| 2 | Covadonga | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 10 |
| 3 | Mosconia | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 10 |
| 4 | Condal | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | CD Colunga | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 10 |
| 6 | Siero | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
| 7 | Caudal | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 9 |
| 8 | UP Langreo | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 7 |
| 9 | El San Martin | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 5 |
| 10 | Lealtad | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| 11 | Gijon Industrial | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| 12 | L'Entregu CF | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 4 |
| 13 | Aviles Stadium CF | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 3 |
| 14 | UC Ceares | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 3 |
| 15 | Praviano | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 3 |
| 16 | Llanes | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 2 |
| 17 | Andes CF | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| 18 | Oviedo Astur | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Covadonga
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09 | CD Colunga Spain Tercera Group 2 |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 20/09 | Caudal Spain Tercera Group 2 |
1-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 10 | W |
| 13/09 | UP Langreo Spain Tercera Group 2 |
1-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 8 | D |
| 06/09 | Aviles Stadium CF Spain Tercera Group 2 |
0-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | Mosconia Spain Tercera Group 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 09/05 | Real Titanico Laviana Spain Tercera Group 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 03/05 | Llanes Spain Tercera Group 2 |
– | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 26/04 | Sporting Gijon B Spain Tercera Group 2 |
4-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 18/04 | L'Entregu CF Spain Tercera Group 2 |
3-0 | 4-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 12/04 | CD Colunga Spain Tercera Group 2 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
Siero
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09 | UC Ceares Spain Tercera Group 2 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 9 | W |
| 20/09 | Oviedo Astur Spain Tercera Group 2 |
– | 1-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 13/09 | Andes CF Spain Tercera Group 2 |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 06/09 | Condal Spain Tercera Group 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 10/05 | UC Ceares Spain Tercera Group 2 |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 03/05 | Caudal Spain Tercera Group 2 |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 26/04 | Tuilla Spain Tercera Group 2 |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 19/04 | SD Navarro CF Spain Tercera Group 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 12/04 | Gijon Industrial Spain Tercera Group 2 |
0-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 02/04 | Praviano Spain Tercera Group 2 |
2-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Covadonga vs Siero?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Covadonga win (66%). Probabilities: Covadonga 66%, draw 20%, Siero 14%.
How many goals are expected in Covadonga vs Siero?
The model expects 3.29 goals (Covadonga 2.29 · Siero 1), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Covadonga vs Siero?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.