Football · Spain Tercera Group 2 · 11/10, 12:00

Prediction: Caudal vs Sporting Gijon B

Team pages: Caudal · Sporting Gijon B

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.61Total

Caudal1.39

Sporting Gijon B1.22

1X2

40% 28% 32%

Caudal Draw Sporting Gijon B

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Caudal 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWDWWLWD

Sporting Gijon B 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WLWWDWWWWD

Head-to-head

Caudal 2–2–2 Sporting Gijon B (6 last)

Sporting Gijon B0-0Caudal
Caudal0-0Sporting Gijon B
Sporting Gijon B3-1Caudal
Caudal3-2Sporting Gijon B
Sporting Gijon B2-0Caudal
Caudal3-0Sporting Gijon B

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Caudal 1523 · Sporting Gijon B 1571

	Caudal	Draw	Sporting Gijon B
Our model	40%	29%	32%
Market	40%	28%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sporting Gijon B (rating 1523 vs 1571).
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Caudal	Sporting Gijon B
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1	1.7 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.2	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/33/17%	38/50/13%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.8	2 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.3	4.5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.25

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Pinn 2.31 ★
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.80 → 2.80	Pinn 2.86

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.9% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:27 +12’	2.25	3.25	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:37 +183’	2.31	3.10	2.86

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Caudal 2–2–2 Sporting Gijon B

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Spain Tercera - Play-Offs	Sporting Gijon B	0-0 HT 0-0	Caudal
17/05/26 Spain Tercera Group 2	Caudal	0-0 HT 0-0	Sporting Gijon B
15/02/26 Spain Tercera Group 2	Sporting Gijon B	3-1 HT 2-0	Caudal
05/10/25 Spain Tercera Group 2	Caudal	3-2 HT 2-1	Sporting Gijon B
19/01/25 Spain Tercera Group 2	Sporting Gijon B	2-0 HT 1-0	Caudal
08/09/24 Spain Tercera Group 2	Caudal	3-0 HT 2-0	Sporting Gijon B

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Covadonga	5	4	1	0	14	4	13
2	Sporting Gijon B	5	4	1	0	9	4	13
3	Mosconia	5	3	2	0	8	1	11
4	Condal	5	3	2	0	8	2	11
5	CD Colunga	5	3	1	1	9	7	10
6	Caudal	5	3	1	1	8	6	10
7	Siero	5	3	0	2	6	3	9
8	UP Langreo	5	2	2	1	10	8	8
9	Gijon Industrial	5	2	1	2	8	6	7
10	Lealtad	5	2	1	2	5	4	7
11	El San Martin	5	1	2	2	5	10	5
12	Praviano	5	1	1	3	6	8	4
13	L'Entregu CF	5	1	1	3	2	6	4
14	UC Ceares	5	1	0	4	7	11	3
15	Llanes	5	0	3	2	6	12	3
16	Aviles Stadium CF	5	1	0	4	2	9	3
17	Oviedo Astur	5	0	2	3	3	8	2
18	Andes CF	5	0	1	4	2	9	1

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Caudal	Sporting Gijon B
Praviano	1-1 D	2-1 W
Covadonga	0-4 L	0-5 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Caudal

WWLWDWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Praviano Spain Tercera Group 2	–	1-1	–	–	D
26/09	L'Entregu CF Spain Tercera Group 2	1-0	2-0	4	6	W
20/09	Covadonga Spain Tercera Group 2	0-1	0-4	1	10	L
13/09	UC Ceares Spain Tercera Group 2	1-0	2-1	6	2	W
06/09	Astur Spain Tercera Group 2	2-0	3-0	3	1	W
17/05	Sporting Gijon B Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
10/05	Tuilla Spain Tercera Group 2	–	3-1	–	–	W
03/05	Siero Spain Tercera Group 2	–	0-1	–	–	L
26/04	SD Navarro CF Spain Tercera Group 2	–	2-1	–	–	W
19/04	Gijon Industrial Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	4-1	7	2	W

Sporting Gijon B

WLWWDWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	UP Langreo Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	1-1	1	7	D
27/09	Aviles Stadium CF Spain Tercera Group 2	2-0	2-1	4	7	W
20/09	Lealtad Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	1-0	9	6	W
13/09	Llanes Spain Tercera Group 2	–	3-1	–	–	W
06/09	Praviano Spain Tercera Group 2	1-0	2-1	1	6	W
17/05	Caudal Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
10/05	Lenense Spain Tercera Group 2	–	1-0	–	–	W
03/05	El San Martin Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	2-0	4	1	W
26/04	Covadonga Spain Tercera Group 2	0-4	0-5	1	5	L
19/04	Aviles Stadium CF Spain Tercera Group 2	3-0	5-0	6	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Caudal vs Sporting Gijon B?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Caudal win (40%). Probabilities: Caudal 40%, draw 28%, Sporting Gijon B 32%.

How many goals are expected in Caudal vs Sporting Gijon B?

The model expects 2.61 goals (Caudal 1.39 · Sporting Gijon B 1.22), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Caudal vs Sporting Gijon B?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.