Football · Spain Tercera Group 2 · 10/10, 19:00
Prediction: Mosconia vs UC Ceares
Team pages: Mosconia · UC Ceares
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Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.4Total
Mosconia1.65
UC Ceares0.74
1X2
Mosconia
Draw
UC Ceares
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Mosconia
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
UC Ceares
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Mosconia
2–3–1
UC Ceares
(6 last)
- Mosconia1-0UC Ceares
- UC Ceares0-0Mosconia
- Mosconia2-1UC Ceares
- UC Ceares1-1Mosconia
- Mosconia0-0UC Ceares
- UC Ceares1-0Mosconia
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mosconia 1516 · UC Ceares 1468
| Mosconia | Draw | UC Ceares | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 26% | 15% |
| Market | 59% | 24% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.4 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mosconia (rating 1516 vs 1468).
- H2H favours Mosconia: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Mosconia | UC Ceares | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 0.5 | 1.8 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0 | 1 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 17/83/0% | 33/50/17% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 3.5 | 0.6 / 1.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0.2 | 5.5 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mosconia 2–3–1 UC Ceares
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/02/26 Spain Tercera Group 2 | Mosconia | 1-0 HT 1-0 | UC Ceares |
| 20/09/25 Spain Tercera Group 2 | UC Ceares | 0-0 | Mosconia |
| 09/03/25 Spain Tercera Group 2 | Mosconia | 2-1 HT 0-1 | UC Ceares |
| 27/10/24 Spain Tercera Group 2 | UC Ceares | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Mosconia |
| 31/01/21 Spain Tercera Group 2 | Mosconia | 0-0 | UC Ceares |
| 23/12/20 Spain Tercera Group 2 | UC Ceares | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Mosconia |
Standings · Spain Tercera Group 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Covadonga | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 4 | 13 |
| 2 | Sporting Gijon B | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 13 |
| 3 | Mosconia | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 11 |
| 4 | Condal | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 11 |
| 5 | CD Colunga | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 10 |
| 6 | Caudal | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 10 |
| 7 | Siero | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | UP Langreo | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 8 |
| 9 | Gijon Industrial | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 7 |
| 10 | Lealtad | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 7 |
| 11 | El San Martin | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 5 |
| 12 | Praviano | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 4 |
| 13 | L'Entregu CF | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 4 |
| 14 | UC Ceares | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 3 |
| 15 | Llanes | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 3 |
| 16 | Aviles Stadium CF | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 3 |
| 17 | Oviedo Astur | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 2 |
| 18 | Andes CF | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 1 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Mosconia | UC Ceares |
|---|---|---|
| Gijon Industrial | 2-0 W | 1-2 L |
| SD Navarro CF | 1-3 L | 3-0 W |
| Praviano | 0-1 L | 3-2 W |
| Lenense | 2-0 W | 2-4 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 2 L | 2 W 0 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mosconia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Oviedo Astur Spain Tercera Group 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 26/09 | Andes CF Spain Tercera Group 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 20/09 | Condal Spain Tercera Group 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 13/09 | Gijon Industrial Spain Tercera Group 2 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 06/09 | Llanes Spain Tercera Group 2 |
– | 5-1 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | Covadonga Spain Tercera Group 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 10/05 | SD Navarro CF Spain Tercera Group 2 |
– | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 03/05 | Gijon Industrial Spain Tercera Group 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 25/04 | Praviano Spain Tercera Group 2 |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 19/04 | Lenense Spain Tercera Group 2 |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
UC Ceares
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | El San Martin Spain Tercera Group 2 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 26/09 | Siero Spain Tercera Group 2 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 9 | L |
| 20/09 | CD Colunga Spain Tercera Group 2 |
2-0 | 3-4 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 13/09 | Caudal Spain Tercera Group 2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 06/09 | UP Langreo Spain Tercera Group 2 |
2-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 10/05 | Siero Spain Tercera Group 2 |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 03/05 | SD Navarro CF Spain Tercera Group 2 |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 26/04 | Gijon Industrial Spain Tercera Group 2 |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 18/04 | Praviano Spain Tercera Group 2 |
– | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 12/04 | Lenense Spain Tercera Group 2 |
2-2 | 2-4 | 0 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mosconia vs UC Ceares?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Mosconia win (59%). Probabilities: Mosconia 59%, draw 25%, UC Ceares 16%.
How many goals are expected in Mosconia vs UC Ceares?
The model expects 2.4 goals (Mosconia 1.65 · UC Ceares 0.74), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Mosconia vs UC Ceares?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.