Football · Spain Tercera Group 2 · 18/10, 12:30

Prediction: Covadonga vs Mosconia

Team pages: Covadonga · Mosconia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.61Total

Covadonga1.65

Mosconia0.97

1X2

52% 27% 21%

Covadonga Draw Mosconia

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Covadonga 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWLDWDWWWL

Mosconia 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

LDLDWWDWDD

Head-to-head

Covadonga 4–2–0 Mosconia (6 last)

Covadonga2-1Mosconia
Mosconia0-0Covadonga
Mosconia1-2Covadonga
Covadonga1-0Mosconia
Mosconia1-2Covadonga
Covadonga1-1Mosconia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Covadonga 1537 · Mosconia 1483

	Covadonga	Draw	Mosconia
Our model	52%	27%	21%
Market	53%	26%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Covadonga (rating 1537 vs 1483).
H2H favours Covadonga: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Covadonga	Mosconia
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 1.1	1.1 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.4 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	29/43/29%	29/71/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4.3	2.8 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.1	2.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.40

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Pinn 1.79 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:41 +19’	1.70	3.40	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:31 +88’	1.79	3.30	4.13

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Covadonga 4–2–0 Mosconia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Spain Tercera - Play-Offs	Covadonga	2-1 HT 1-0	Mosconia
17/05/26 Spain Tercera Group 2	Mosconia	0-0 HT 0-0	Covadonga
02/04/26 Spain Tercera Group 2	Mosconia	1-2 HT 1-1	Covadonga
23/11/25 Spain Tercera Group 2	Covadonga	1-0 HT 0-0	Mosconia
23/02/25 Spain Tercera Group 2	Mosconia	1-2 HT 0-0	Covadonga
12/10/24 Spain Tercera Group 2	Covadonga	1-1 HT 0-1	Mosconia

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Condal	6	4	2	0	10	2	14
2	Sporting Gijon B	6	4	2	0	10	5	14
3	Covadonga	6	4	1	1	16	8	13
4	Mosconia	6	3	3	0	10	3	12
5	Siero	6	4	0	2	9	3	12
6	CD Colunga	6	3	2	1	14	12	11
7	Caudal	6	3	2	1	9	7	11
8	Lealtad	6	3	1	2	6	4	10
9	Gijon Industrial	6	2	2	2	10	8	8
10	Praviano	6	2	2	2	12	10	8
11	El San Martin	6	2	2	2	9	12	8
12	Aviles Stadium CF	6	2	0	4	4	10	6
13	UP Langreo	6	1	2	3	7	10	5
14	UC Ceares	6	1	1	4	9	13	4
15	L'Entregu CF	6	1	1	4	2	9	4
16	Oviedo Astur	6	0	3	3	5	10	3
17	Llanes	6	0	3	3	7	14	3
18	Andes CF	6	0	1	5	2	11	1

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Covadonga

WWLDWDWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	El San Martin Spain Tercera Group 2	–	2-4	–	–	L
04/10	Siero Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	2-1	3	7	W
26/09	CD Colunga Spain Tercera Group 2	–	2-1	–	–	W
20/09	Caudal Spain Tercera Group 2	1-0	4-0	2	10	W
13/09	UP Langreo Spain Tercera Group 2	1-2	2-2	6	8	D
06/09	Aviles Stadium CF Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	4-0	6	4	W
17/05	Mosconia Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
09/05	Real Titanico Laviana Spain Tercera Group 2	0-1	0-2	4	2	L
03/05	Llanes Spain Tercera Group 2	–	4-1	–	–	W
26/04	Sporting Gijon B Spain Tercera Group 2	4-0	5-0	5	5	W

Mosconia

LDLDWWDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	UC Ceares Spain Tercera Group 2	2-0	2-2	6	3	D
04/10	Oviedo Astur Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
26/09	Andes CF Spain Tercera Group 2	1-0	1-0	7	3	W
20/09	Condal Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
13/09	Gijon Industrial Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	2-0	2	0	W
06/09	Llanes Spain Tercera Group 2	–	5-1	–	–	W
17/05	Covadonga Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	0-0	1	1	D
10/05	SD Navarro CF Spain Tercera Group 2	–	1-3	–	–	L
03/05	Gijon Industrial Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
25/04	Praviano Spain Tercera Group 2	–	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Covadonga vs Mosconia?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Covadonga win (52%). Probabilities: Covadonga 52%, draw 27%, Mosconia 21%.

How many goals are expected in Covadonga vs Mosconia?

The model expects 2.61 goals (Covadonga 1.65 · Mosconia 0.97), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Covadonga vs Mosconia?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.