Football · Spain Tercera Group 2 · 18/10, 12:00

Prediction: UC Ceares vs Gijon Industrial

Team pages: UC Ceares · Gijon Industrial

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.87Total

UC Ceares1.43

Gijon Industrial1.44

1X2

36% 28% 36%

UC Ceares Draw Gijon Industrial

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

UC Ceares 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLWWWLLLLD

Gijon Industrial 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWWLDLWD

Head-to-head

UC Ceares 4–1–1 Gijon Industrial (6 last)

Gijon Industrial2-1UC Ceares
UC Ceares1-0Gijon Industrial
Gijon Industrial1-5UC Ceares
UC Ceares2-0Gijon Industrial
UC Ceares1-1Gijon Industrial
Gijon Industrial1-2UC Ceares

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UC Ceares 1487 · Gijon Industrial 1500

	UC Ceares	Draw	Gijon Industrial
Our model	36%	27%	37%
Market	35%	29%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.87 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours UC Ceares: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UC Ceares	Gijon Industrial
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.7	1.9 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/33/33%	17/67/17%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.5 / 1.2	2 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.3	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.10

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.93

2 (0)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 1.2 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Pinn 2.62 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.13
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
19:28 +20’	2.55	3.10	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:50 +117’	2.62	3.13	2.48

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · UC Ceares 4–1–1 Gijon Industrial

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Spain Tercera Group 2	Gijon Industrial	2-1	UC Ceares
21/12/25 Spain Tercera Group 2	UC Ceares	1-0 HT 0-0	Gijon Industrial
06/04/24 Spain Tercera Group 2	Gijon Industrial	1-5	UC Ceares
19/11/23 Spain Tercera Group 2	UC Ceares	2-0 HT 0-0	Gijon Industrial
14/08/21 Europe Friendlies	UC Ceares	1-1 HT 0-1	Gijon Industrial
14/02/21 Spain Tercera Group 2	Gijon Industrial	1-2 HT 0-2	UC Ceares

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 2

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Condal	6	4	2	0	10	2	14
2	Sporting Gijon B	6	4	2	0	10	5	14
3	Covadonga	6	4	1	1	16	8	13
4	Mosconia	6	3	3	0	10	3	12
5	Siero	6	4	0	2	9	3	12
6	CD Colunga	6	3	2	1	14	12	11
7	Caudal	6	3	2	1	9	7	11
8	Lealtad	6	3	1	2	6	4	10
9	Gijon Industrial	6	2	2	2	10	8	8
10	Praviano	6	2	2	2	12	10	8
11	El San Martin	6	2	2	2	9	12	8
12	Aviles Stadium CF	6	2	0	4	4	10	6
13	UP Langreo	6	1	2	3	7	10	5
14	UC Ceares	6	1	1	4	9	13	4
15	L'Entregu CF	6	1	1	4	2	9	4
16	Oviedo Astur	6	0	3	3	5	10	3
17	Llanes	6	0	3	3	7	14	3
18	Andes CF	6	0	1	5	2	11	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UC Ceares	Gijon Industrial
Mosconia	2-2 D	0-2 L
El San Martin	1-2 L	2-0 W
CD Colunga	3-4 L	6-2 W
Caudal	1-2 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UC Ceares

WLWWWLLLLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Mosconia Spain Tercera Group 2	0-2	2-2	0	3	D
03/10	El San Martin Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	1-2	1	6	L
26/09	Siero Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	0-2	2	9	L
20/09	CD Colunga Spain Tercera Group 2	2-0	3-4	1	5	L
13/09	Caudal Spain Tercera Group 2	0-1	1-2	2	2	L
06/09	UP Langreo Spain Tercera Group 2	2-1	2-1	1	8	W
10/05	Siero Spain Tercera Group 2	–	2-0	–	–	W
03/05	SD Navarro CF Spain Tercera Group 2	–	3-0	–	–	W
26/04	Gijon Industrial Spain Tercera Group 2	–	1-2	–	–	L
18/04	Praviano Spain Tercera Group 2	–	3-2	–	–	W

Gijon Industrial

LWDWWLDLWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Oviedo Astur Spain Tercera Group 2	1-2	2-2	7	2	D
04/10	Andes CF Spain Tercera Group 2	–	3-0	–	–	W
27/09	Condal Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	1-2	4	7	L
20/09	Llanes Spain Tercera Group 2	–	2-2	–	–	D
13/09	Mosconia Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	0-2	1	0	L
06/09	El San Martin Spain Tercera Group 2	–	2-0	–	–	W
10/05	CD Colunga Spain Tercera Group 2	3-1	6-2	9	6	W
03/05	Mosconia Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
26/04	UC Ceares Spain Tercera Group 2	–	2-1	–	–	W
19/04	Caudal Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	1-4	6	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UC Ceares vs Gijon Industrial?

According to our model, the most likely result is a UC Ceares win (36%). Probabilities: UC Ceares 36%, draw 28%, Gijon Industrial 36%.

How many goals are expected in UC Ceares vs Gijon Industrial?

The model expects 2.87 goals (UC Ceares 1.43 · Gijon Industrial 1.44), with a 58% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in UC Ceares vs Gijon Industrial?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.