Football · Spain Tercera Group 2 · 18/10, 12:00

Prediction: Sporting Gijon B vs CD Colunga

Team pages: Sporting Gijon B · CD Colunga

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.79Total

Sporting Gijon B2.75

CD Colunga1.05

1X2

72% 17% 11%

Sporting Gijon B Draw CD Colunga

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Sporting Gijon B 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

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CD Colunga 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Sporting Gijon B 4–2–0 CD Colunga (6 last)

CD Colunga0-5Sporting Gijon B
Sporting Gijon B7-0CD Colunga
CD Colunga2-2Sporting Gijon B
Sporting Gijon B1-1CD Colunga
CD Colunga0-3Sporting Gijon B
Sporting Gijon B1-0CD Colunga

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sporting Gijon B 1579 · CD Colunga 1457

	Sporting Gijon B	Draw	CD Colunga
Our model	72%	17%	11%
Market	72%	18%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 3.79 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +1

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sporting Gijon B (rating 1579 vs 1457).
H2H favours Sporting Gijon B: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sporting Gijon B	CD Colunga
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1	2.1 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.5 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/63/13%	25/25/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3	2.7 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.4	3.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.25

X5.00

28.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.98

2 (+1.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.25	Bet365 1.25
X	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.53 ★
2	8.50 → 8.50	Pinn 8.85

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
15:37 +11’	1.25	5.00	8.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:30 +139’	1.23	5.53	8.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sporting Gijon B 4–2–0 CD Colunga

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/26 Spain Tercera Group 2	CD Colunga	0-5	Sporting Gijon B
26/10/25 Spain Tercera Group 2	Sporting Gijon B	7-0 HT 3-0	CD Colunga
20/04/25 Spain Tercera Group 2	CD Colunga	2-2	Sporting Gijon B
08/12/24 Spain Tercera Group 2	Sporting Gijon B	1-1 HT 0-0	CD Colunga
28/01/24 Spain Tercera Group 2	CD Colunga	0-3 HT 0-1	Sporting Gijon B
10/09/23 Spain Tercera Group 2	Sporting Gijon B	1-0 HT 0-0	CD Colunga

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Condal	6	4	2	0	10	2	14
2	Sporting Gijon B	6	4	2	0	10	5	14
3	Covadonga	6	4	1	1	16	8	13
4	Mosconia	6	3	3	0	10	3	12
5	Siero	6	4	0	2	9	3	12
6	CD Colunga	6	3	2	1	14	12	11
7	Caudal	6	3	2	1	9	7	11
8	Lealtad	6	3	1	2	6	4	10
9	Gijon Industrial	6	2	2	2	10	8	8
10	Praviano	6	2	2	2	12	10	8
11	El San Martin	6	2	2	2	9	12	8
12	Aviles Stadium CF	6	2	0	4	4	10	6
13	UP Langreo	6	1	2	3	7	10	5
14	UC Ceares	6	1	1	4	9	13	4
15	L'Entregu CF	6	1	1	4	2	9	4
16	Oviedo Astur	6	0	3	3	5	10	3
17	Llanes	6	0	3	3	7	14	3
18	Andes CF	6	0	1	5	2	11	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sporting Gijon B	CD Colunga
Praviano	2-1 W	5-5 D
Lenense	1-0 W	3-3 D
El San Martin	2-0 W	2-3 L
Covadonga	0-5 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sporting Gijon B (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sporting Gijon B

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Caudal Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
04/10	UP Langreo Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	1-1	1	7	D
27/09	Aviles Stadium CF Spain Tercera Group 2	2-0	2-1	4	7	W
20/09	Lealtad Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	1-0	9	6	W
13/09	Llanes Spain Tercera Group 2	–	3-1	–	–	W
06/09	Praviano Spain Tercera Group 2	1-0	2-1	1	6	W
17/05	Caudal Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
10/05	Lenense Spain Tercera Group 2	–	1-0	–	–	W
03/05	El San Martin Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	2-0	4	1	W
26/04	Covadonga Spain Tercera Group 2	0-4	0-5	1	5	L

CD Colunga

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Praviano Spain Tercera Group 2	–	5-5	–	–	D
03/10	L'Entregu CF Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	0-0	3	0	D
26/09	Covadonga Spain Tercera Group 2	–	1-2	–	–	L
20/09	UC Ceares Spain Tercera Group 2	0-2	4-3	7	5	W
13/09	Oviedo Astur Spain Tercera Group 2	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
06/09	Andes CF Spain Tercera Group 2	–	2-1	–	–	W
10/05	Gijon Industrial Spain Tercera Group 2	1-3	2-6	1	6	L
03/05	Praviano Spain Tercera Group 2	–	0-2	–	–	L
26/04	Lenense Spain Tercera Group 2	–	3-3	–	–	D
19/04	El San Martin Spain Tercera Group 2	–	2-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sporting Gijon B vs CD Colunga?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sporting Gijon B win (72%). Probabilities: Sporting Gijon B 72%, draw 17%, CD Colunga 11%.

How many goals are expected in Sporting Gijon B vs CD Colunga?

The model expects 3.79 goals (Sporting Gijon B 2.75 · CD Colunga 1.05), with a 60% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Sporting Gijon B vs CD Colunga?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.