Football · Spain Tercera Group 2 · 25/10, 17:30

Prediction: Caudal vs Aviles Stadium CF

Team pages: Caudal · Aviles Stadium CF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.43Total

Caudal1.87

Aviles Stadium CF0.56

1X2

69% 21% 10%

Caudal Draw Aviles Stadium CF

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Caudal 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LWDWWLWDDD

Aviles Stadium CF 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDLLLWLLWD

Head-to-head

Caudal 4–2–0 Aviles Stadium CF (6 last)

Aviles Stadium CF0-1Caudal
Caudal2-2Aviles Stadium CF
Aviles Stadium CF0-0Caudal
Caudal3-0Aviles Stadium CF
Caudal2-0Aviles Stadium CF
Aviles Stadium CF1-3Caudal

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Caudal 1522 · Aviles Stadium CF 1431

	Caudal	Draw	Aviles Stadium CF
Our model	68%	23%	9%
Market	70%	19%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Caudal (rating 1522 vs 1431).
H2H favours Caudal: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Caudal	Aviles Stadium CF
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.9	0.7 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.1	0.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	43/43/14%	14/29/57%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4	1.8 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.4	3.9 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.28

X4.75

28.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.85

2 (+1.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.28 → 1.28	Bet365 1.28
X	4.75 → 4.75	Pinn 4.93 ★
2	8.00 → 8.00	Pinn 8.14

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
18:56 +8’	1.28	4.75	8.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:41 +23’	1.30	4.84	7.79
23:00 +8’	1.28▼	4.93▲	8.14▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Caudal 4–2–0 Aviles Stadium CF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Spain Tercera Group 2	Aviles Stadium CF	0-1 HT 0-0	Caudal
02/11/25 Spain Tercera Group 2	Caudal	2-2	Aviles Stadium CF
06/04/25 Spain Tercera Group 2	Aviles Stadium CF	0-0 HT 0-0	Caudal
23/11/24 Spain Tercera Group 2	Caudal	3-0 HT 3-0	Aviles Stadium CF
25/02/24 Spain Tercera Group 2	Caudal	2-0 HT 1-0	Aviles Stadium CF
08/10/23 Spain Tercera Group 2	Aviles Stadium CF	1-3 HT 1-2	Caudal

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sporting Gijon B	7	5	2	0	14	5	17
2	Covadonga	7	5	1	1	20	8	16
3	Condal	7	4	3	0	11	3	15
4	Mosconia	7	3	3	1	10	7	12
4	Siero	7	4	0	3	10	7	12
6	Caudal	7	3	3	1	9	7	12
7	Praviano	7	3	2	2	16	11	11
8	CD Colunga	7	3	2	2	14	16	11
9	Gijon Industrial	7	3	2	2	11	8	11
10	Lealtad	7	3	2	2	6	4	11
11	UP Langreo	8	2	3	3	8	10	9
12	El San Martin	7	2	3	2	10	13	9
13	Aviles Stadium CF	7	2	1	4	4	10	7
14	L'Entregu CF	7	1	2	4	3	10	5
15	UC Ceares	7	1	1	5	9	14	4
16	Oviedo Astur	7	0	4	3	6	11	4
17	Llanes	8	0	4	4	8	16	4
18	Andes CF	7	0	2	5	3	12	2

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Caudal	Aviles Stadium CF
Lealtad	0-0 D	0-2 L
Sporting Gijon B	1-1 D	1-2 L
Praviano	1-1 D	1-0 W
L'Entregu CF	2-0 W	0-1 L
Covadonga	0-4 L	0-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Caudal (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Caudal

LWDWWLWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Lealtad Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
11/10	Sporting Gijon B Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
04/10	Praviano Spain Tercera Group 2	–	1-1	–	–	D
26/09	L'Entregu CF Spain Tercera Group 2	1-0	2-0	4	6	W
20/09	Covadonga Spain Tercera Group 2	0-1	0-4	1	10	L
13/09	UC Ceares Spain Tercera Group 2	1-0	2-1	6	2	W
06/09	Astur Spain Tercera Group 2	2-0	3-0	3	1	W
17/05	Sporting Gijon B Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
10/05	Tuilla Spain Tercera Group 2	–	3-1	–	–	W
03/05	Siero Spain Tercera Group 2	–	0-1	–	–	L

Aviles Stadium CF

LDLLLWLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	UP Langreo Spain Tercera Group 2	–	0-0	–	–	D
11/10	Llanes Spain Tercera Group 2	1-0	2-1	2	6	W
04/10	Lealtad Spain Tercera Group 2	0-1	0-2	10	4	L
27/09	Sporting Gijon B Spain Tercera Group 2	0-2	1-2	5	7	L
20/09	Praviano Spain Tercera Group 2	–	1-0	–	–	W
13/09	L'Entregu CF Spain Tercera Group 2	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
06/09	Covadonga Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	0-4	2	4	L
10/05	UD Llanera Spain Tercera Group 2	0-1	1-2	1	1	L
03/05	Real Titanico Laviana Spain Tercera Group 2	1-1	2-2	3	4	D
26/04	Llanes Spain Tercera Group 2	–	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Caudal vs Aviles Stadium CF?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Caudal win (69%). Probabilities: Caudal 69%, draw 21%, Aviles Stadium CF 10%.

How many goals are expected in Caudal vs Aviles Stadium CF?

The model expects 2.43 goals (Caudal 1.87 · Aviles Stadium CF 0.56), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Caudal vs Aviles Stadium CF?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.