Football · Spain Tercera Group 2 · 25/10, 12:00

Prediction: El San Martin vs Praviano

Team pages: El San Martin · Praviano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.83Total

El San Martin1.45

Praviano1.38

1X2

38% 28% 35%

El San Martin Draw Praviano

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

El San Martin 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLWLLDDWWD

Praviano 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLLWLDDW

Head-to-head

El San Martin 0–5–1 Praviano (6 last)

El San Martin0-1Praviano
Praviano0-0El San Martin
El San Martin1-1Praviano
Praviano0-0El San Martin
El San Martin0-0Praviano
Praviano0-0El San Martin

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · El San Martin 1515 · Praviano 1519

	El San Martin	Draw	Praviano
Our model	38%	27%	35%
Market	37%	28%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.83 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	El San Martin	Praviano
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.5	1.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0	0 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	0/0/100%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.5 / 4	3 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	5 / 1

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.20

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 04:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.40▲	Pinn 2.53 ★
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.80 → 2.60▼	Pinn 2.67

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
12:22 +17’	2.25	3.20	2.80
04:00 +4’	2.40▲	3.20	2.60▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:17 +272’	2.26	2.97	3.07
21:20 +14’	2.49▲	2.97	2.73▼
22:59 +40’	2.55▲	2.94▼	2.68▼
02:38 +89’	2.53▼	2.98▲	2.67▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · El San Martin 0–5–1 Praviano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 Spain Tercera Group 2	El San Martin	0-1	Praviano
19/10/25 Spain Tercera Group 2	Praviano	0-0 HT 0-0	El San Martin
30/03/25 Spain Tercera Group 2	El San Martin	1-1 HT 0-0	Praviano
17/11/24 Spain Tercera Group 2	Praviano	0-0 HT 0-0	El San Martin
15/01/22 Spain Tercera Group 2	El San Martin	0-0	Praviano
29/09/21 Spain Tercera Group 2	Praviano	0-0 HT 0-0	El San Martin

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sporting Gijon B	7	5	2	0	14	5	17
2	Covadonga	7	5	1	1	20	8	16
3	Condal	7	4	3	0	11	3	15
4	Mosconia	7	3	3	1	10	7	12
4	Siero	7	4	0	3	10	7	12
6	Caudal	7	3	3	1	9	7	12
7	Praviano	7	3	2	2	16	11	11
8	CD Colunga	7	3	2	2	14	16	11
9	Gijon Industrial	7	3	2	2	11	8	11
10	Lealtad	7	3	2	2	6	4	11
11	UP Langreo	8	2	3	3	8	10	9
12	El San Martin	7	2	3	2	10	13	9
13	Aviles Stadium CF	7	2	1	4	4	10	7
14	L'Entregu CF	7	1	2	4	3	10	5
15	UC Ceares	7	1	1	5	9	14	4
16	Oviedo Astur	7	0	4	3	6	11	4
17	Llanes	8	0	4	4	8	16	4
18	Andes CF	7	0	2	5	3	12	2

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	El San Martin	Praviano
L'Entregu CF	1-1 D	1-2 L
UC Ceares	2-1 W	2-3 L
Sporting Gijon B	0-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: El San Martin (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

El San Martin

WLWLLDDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	L'Entregu CF Spain Tercera Group 2	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/10	Covadonga Spain Tercera Group 2	–	4-2	–	–	W
03/10	UC Ceares Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	2-1	8	6	W
27/09	Oviedo Astur Spain Tercera Group 2	2-0	2-2	6	3	D
20/09	Andes CF Spain Tercera Group 2	–	1-1	–	–	D
13/09	Condal Spain Tercera Group 2	–	0-4	–	–	L
06/09	Gijon Industrial Spain Tercera Group 2	–	0-2	–	–	L
10/05	Llanes Spain Tercera Group 2	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
03/05	Sporting Gijon B Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	0-2	3	1	L
26/04	L'Entregu CF Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	1-0	0	8	W

Praviano

LWWLLWLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Siero Spain Tercera Group 2	–	4-1	–	–	W
10/10	CD Colunga Spain Tercera Group 2	–	5-5	–	–	D
04/10	Caudal Spain Tercera Group 2	–	1-1	–	–	D
20/09	Aviles Stadium CF Spain Tercera Group 2	–	0-1	–	–	L
12/09	Lealtad Spain Tercera Group 2	–	2-1	–	–	W
06/09	Sporting Gijon B Spain Tercera Group 2	0-1	1-2	3	6	L
10/05	L'Entregu CF Spain Tercera Group 2	–	1-2	–	–	L
03/05	CD Colunga Spain Tercera Group 2	–	2-0	–	–	W
25/04	Mosconia Spain Tercera Group 2	–	1-0	–	–	W
18/04	UC Ceares Spain Tercera Group 2	–	2-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in El San Martin vs Praviano?

According to our model, the most likely result is a El San Martin win (38%). Probabilities: El San Martin 38%, draw 28%, Praviano 35%.

How many goals are expected in El San Martin vs Praviano?

The model expects 2.83 goals (El San Martin 1.45 · Praviano 1.38), with a 56% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in El San Martin vs Praviano?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.