Football · Spain Tercera Group 2 · 25/10, 17:00

Prediction: Gijon Industrial vs Covadonga

Team pages: Gijon Industrial · Covadonga

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Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.53Total

Gijon Industrial1.24

Covadonga2.29

1X2

18% 22% 60%

Gijon Industrial Draw Covadonga

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-2 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Gijon Industrial 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWLDLWDW

Covadonga 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLDWDWWWLW

Head-to-head

Gijon Industrial 0–1–5 Covadonga (6 last)

Covadonga6-0Gijon Industrial
Gijon Industrial1-3Covadonga
Gijon Industrial1-3Covadonga
Covadonga3-1Gijon Industrial
Gijon Industrial0-1Covadonga
Covadonga1-1Gijon Industrial

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gijon Industrial 1526 · Covadonga 1537

	Gijon Industrial	Draw	Covadonga
Our model	19%	21%	60%
Market	18%	23%	59%

Estimated total (ours) 3.53 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Covadonga: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gijon Industrial	Covadonga
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.1	2.4 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	17/67/17%	29/43/29%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.5	1.7 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0	5.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

15.00

X3.80

21.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.95

2 (-1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.28 ★
X	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 3.90
2	1.50 → 1.50	Pinn 1.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 13% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:26 +30’	5.00	3.80	1.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:46 +9’	5.28	3.90	1.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gijon Industrial 0–1–5 Covadonga

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 Spain Tercera Group 2	Covadonga	6-0	Gijon Industrial
19/10/25 Spain Tercera Group 2	Gijon Industrial	1-3 HT 0-2	Covadonga
20/03/22 Spain Tercera Group 2	Gijon Industrial	1-3 HT 0-2	Covadonga
31/10/21 Spain Tercera Group 2	Covadonga	3-1 HT 0-1	Gijon Industrial
19/01/20 Spain Tercera Group 2	Gijon Industrial	0-1	Covadonga
01/09/19 Spain Tercera Group 2	Covadonga	1-1 HT 1-1	Gijon Industrial

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sporting Gijon B	8	6	2	0	16	6	20
2	Covadonga	7	5	1	1	20	8	16
3	Condal	7	4	3	0	11	3	15
4	Mosconia	7	3	3	1	10	7	12
5	Siero	8	4	0	4	11	9	12
6	Caudal	7	3	3	1	9	7	12
7	Praviano	7	3	2	2	16	11	11
8	CD Colunga	7	3	2	2	14	16	11
9	Gijon Industrial	7	3	2	2	11	8	11
10	Lealtad	7	3	2	2	6	4	11
11	UP Langreo	8	2	3	3	8	10	9
12	El San Martin	7	2	3	2	10	13	9
13	Aviles Stadium CF	7	2	1	4	4	10	7
14	L'Entregu CF	7	1	2	4	3	10	5
15	UC Ceares	7	1	1	5	9	14	4
16	Oviedo Astur	7	0	4	3	6	11	4
17	Llanes	8	0	4	4	8	16	4
18	Andes CF	7	0	2	5	3	12	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gijon Industrial	Covadonga
Llanes	2-2 D	4-1 W
Mosconia	0-2 L	4-0 W
El San Martin	2-0 W	2-4 L
CD Colunga	6-2 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gijon Industrial

WDWWLDLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	UC Ceares Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	1-0	7	7	W
11/10	Oviedo Astur Spain Tercera Group 2	1-2	2-2	7	2	D
04/10	Andes CF Spain Tercera Group 2	–	3-0	–	–	W
27/09	Condal Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	1-2	4	7	L
20/09	Llanes Spain Tercera Group 2	–	2-2	–	–	D
13/09	Mosconia Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	0-2	1	0	L
06/09	El San Martin Spain Tercera Group 2	–	2-0	–	–	W
10/05	CD Colunga Spain Tercera Group 2	3-1	6-2	9	6	W
03/05	Mosconia Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
26/04	UC Ceares Spain Tercera Group 2	–	2-1	–	–	W

Covadonga

WLDWDWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Mosconia Spain Tercera Group 2	1-0	4-0	7	5	W
11/10	El San Martin Spain Tercera Group 2	–	2-4	–	–	L
04/10	Siero Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	2-1	3	7	W
26/09	CD Colunga Spain Tercera Group 2	–	2-1	–	–	W
20/09	Caudal Spain Tercera Group 2	1-0	4-0	2	10	W
13/09	UP Langreo Spain Tercera Group 2	1-2	2-2	6	8	D
06/09	Aviles Stadium CF Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	4-0	6	4	W
17/05	Mosconia Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
09/05	Real Titanico Laviana Spain Tercera Group 2	0-1	0-2	4	2	L
03/05	Llanes Spain Tercera Group 2	–	4-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gijon Industrial vs Covadonga?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Covadonga win (60%). Probabilities: Gijon Industrial 18%, draw 22%, Covadonga 60%.

How many goals are expected in Gijon Industrial vs Covadonga?

The model expects 3.53 goals (Gijon Industrial 1.24 · Covadonga 2.29), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Gijon Industrial vs Covadonga?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.