Football · Spain Tercera Group 2 · 24/10, 19:45

Prediction: Siero vs Sporting Gijon B

Team pages: Siero · Sporting Gijon B

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.69Total

Siero0.95

Sporting Gijon B1.74

1X2

20% 25% 55%

Siero Draw Sporting Gijon B

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Siero 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WWLLWWWLWL

Sporting Gijon B 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WWDWWWWDDW

Head-to-head

Siero 0–1–3 Sporting Gijon B (4 last)

Siero0-4Sporting Gijon B
Sporting Gijon B2-2Siero
Sporting Gijon B9-0Siero
Siero0-4Sporting Gijon B

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Siero 1522 · Sporting Gijon B 1589

	Siero	Draw	Sporting Gijon B
Our model	19%	26%	55%
Market	20%	24%	56%

Estimated total (ours) 2.69 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sporting Gijon B (rating 1522 vs 1589).
H2H favours Sporting Gijon B: 3-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Siero	Sporting Gijon B
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.9	1.7 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0	0.8 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/75/0%	38/63/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 3.6	2.1 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0	4.1 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

14.50

X3.70

21.61

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.98

2 (-0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:21 +13’	4.50	3.70	1.61

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Siero 0–1–3 Sporting Gijon B

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/02/26 Spain Tercera Group 2	Siero	0-4 HT 0-2	Sporting Gijon B
28/09/25 Spain Tercera Group 2	Sporting Gijon B	2-2 HT 0-1	Siero
26/03/17 Spain Tercera Group 2	Sporting Gijon B	9-0 HT 6-0	Siero
02/11/16 Spain Tercera Group 2	Siero	0-4 HT 0-2	Sporting Gijon B

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sporting Gijon B	7	5	2	0	14	5	17
2	Covadonga	7	5	1	1	20	8	16
3	Condal	7	4	3	0	11	3	15
4	Mosconia	7	3	3	1	10	7	12
4	Siero	7	4	0	3	10	7	12
6	Caudal	7	3	3	1	9	7	12
7	Praviano	7	3	2	2	16	11	11
8	CD Colunga	7	3	2	2	14	16	11
9	Gijon Industrial	7	3	2	2	11	8	11
10	Lealtad	7	3	2	2	6	4	11
11	El San Martin	7	2	3	2	10	13	9
12	Aviles Stadium CF	7	2	1	4	4	10	7
13	UP Langreo	7	1	3	3	7	10	6
14	L'Entregu CF	7	1	2	4	3	10	5
15	UC Ceares	7	1	1	5	9	14	4
16	Oviedo Astur	7	0	4	3	6	11	4
17	Llanes	7	0	4	3	8	15	4
18	Andes CF	7	0	2	5	3	12	2

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Siero	Sporting Gijon B
Praviano	1-4 L	2-1 W
Caudal	1-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Siero

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Praviano Spain Tercera Group 2	–	1-4	–	–	L
10/10	L'Entregu CF Spain Tercera Group 2	3-0	3-0	2	5	W
04/10	Covadonga Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	1-2	2	7	L
26/09	UC Ceares Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	2-0	6	9	W
20/09	Oviedo Astur Spain Tercera Group 2	–	1-0	2	0	W
13/09	Andes CF Spain Tercera Group 2	–	2-0	–	–	W
06/09	Condal Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	0-1	6	7	L
10/05	UC Ceares Spain Tercera Group 2	–	0-2	–	–	L
03/05	Caudal Spain Tercera Group 2	–	1-0	–	–	W
26/04	Tuilla Spain Tercera Group 2	–	1-0	–	–	W

Sporting Gijon B

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	CD Colunga Spain Tercera Group 2	3-0	4-0	12	1	W
11/10	Caudal Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
04/10	UP Langreo Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	1-1	1	7	D
27/09	Aviles Stadium CF Spain Tercera Group 2	2-0	2-1	4	7	W
20/09	Lealtad Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	1-0	9	6	W
13/09	Llanes Spain Tercera Group 2	–	3-1	–	–	W
06/09	Praviano Spain Tercera Group 2	1-0	2-1	1	6	W
17/05	Caudal Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
10/05	Lenense Spain Tercera Group 2	–	1-0	–	–	W
03/05	El San Martin Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	2-0	4	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Siero vs Sporting Gijon B?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sporting Gijon B win (55%). Probabilities: Siero 20%, draw 25%, Sporting Gijon B 55%.

How many goals are expected in Siero vs Sporting Gijon B?

The model expects 2.69 goals (Siero 0.95 · Sporting Gijon B 1.74), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Siero vs Sporting Gijon B?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.