Football · San Marino Campionato · 09/10, 21:15

Prediction: SP Cailungo vs AC Libertas

Team pages: SP Cailungo · AC Libertas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

SP Cailungo1.2

AC Libertas1.6

1X2

28% 26% 46%

SP Cailungo Draw AC Libertas

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

SP Cailungo 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLDLLLW

AC Libertas 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DWLLLDDWLD

Head-to-head

SP Cailungo 1–4–1 AC Libertas (6 last)

SP Cailungo1-2AC Libertas
AC Libertas1-1SP Cailungo
SP Cailungo1-1AC Libertas
AC Libertas0-1SP Cailungo
AC Libertas0-0SP Cailungo
SP Cailungo2-2AC Libertas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SP Cailungo 1405 · AC Libertas 1465

	SP Cailungo	Draw	AC Libertas
Our model	27%	27%	46%
Market	28%	26%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AC Libertas (rating 1405 vs 1465).
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SP Cailungo	AC Libertas
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.5	0.8 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.1	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 2.9	2.3 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0	3.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.20

X3.50

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.77

2 (-0.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:58 +10’	3.20	3.50	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SP Cailungo 1–4–1 AC Libertas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/01/26 San Marino Campionato	SP Cailungo	1-2 HT 1-1	AC Libertas
21/10/25 San Marino Cup	AC Libertas	1-1 HT 0-0	SP Cailungo
23/09/25 San Marino Cup	SP Cailungo	1-1 HT 0-1	AC Libertas
19/09/25 San Marino Campionato	AC Libertas	0-1 HT 0-1	SP Cailungo
26/04/25 San Marino Campionato	AC Libertas	0-0 HT 0-0	SP Cailungo
11/01/25 San Marino Campionato	SP Cailungo	2-2 HT 1-0	AC Libertas

Standings · San Marino Campionato

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SS Folgore/Falciano	4	4	0	0	10	1	12
2	Tre Penne	4	4	0	0	9	2	12
3	SS Virtus	4	3	1	0	6	2	10
4	Tre Fiori	4	3	0	1	14	5	9
5	SS Cosmos	4	2	1	1	9	4	7
6	La Fiorita	4	1	3	0	4	3	6
7	SP Domagnano	4	2	0	2	7	6	6
8	AC Libertas	4	1	2	1	4	5	5
9	FC Fiorentino	4	1	1	2	4	5	4
10	SP Cailungo	4	1	0	3	4	5	3
11	SS Murata	4	1	0	3	4	10	3
12	SS San Giovanni	4	1	0	3	4	10	3
13	Juvenes/Dogana	4	1	0	3	6	6	3
14	Pennarossa	4	1	0	3	7	16	3
15	San Marino Academy U22	4	0	2	2	1	5	2
16	SC Faetano	4	0	2	2	1	9	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SP Cailungo	AC Libertas
Tre Penne	0-2 L	1-3 L
SS Virtus	1-6 L	0-2 L
SS Cosmos	1-2 L	1-1 D
FC Fiorentino	1-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 4 L	0 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: AC Libertas (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SP Cailungo

LLLLLDLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	SS San Giovanni San Marino Campionato	2-0	3-0	4	2	W
12/09	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-2	1	3	L
05/09	SS Folgore/Falciano San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
28/08	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	1-1	1-2	5	1	L
25/04	San Marino Academy U22 San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
19/04	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	1-2	1-6	3	1	L
11/04	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	0-3	1-6	1	4	L
07/04	Pennarossa San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-2	3	2	L
21/03	SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
15/03	FC Fiorentino San Marino Campionato	0-2	1-3	–	–	L

AC Libertas

DWLLLDDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	SC Faetano San Marino Campionato	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
12/09	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-2	2	0	L
05/09	Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato	1-0	2-1	4	1	W
29/08	SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	3	7	D
29/04	Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	3	11	D
26/04	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	0-4	0-9	4	2	L
19/04	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	1-0	1-3	4	1	L
12/04	Tre Fiori San Marino Campionato	0-2	0-3	0	3	L
08/04	Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
21/03	FC Fiorentino San Marino Campionato	1-1	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SP Cailungo vs AC Libertas?

According to our model, the most likely result is an AC Libertas win (46%). Probabilities: SP Cailungo 28%, draw 26%, AC Libertas 46%.

How many goals are expected in SP Cailungo vs AC Libertas?

The model expects 2.81 goals (SP Cailungo 1.2 · AC Libertas 1.6), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in SP Cailungo vs AC Libertas?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.