Football · San Marino Campionato · 11/10, 15:00

Prediction: SP Domagnano vs Tre Penne

Team pages: SP Domagnano · Tre Penne

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.91Total

SP Domagnano0.94

Tre Penne1.97

1X2

17% 23% 61%

SP Domagnano Draw Tre Penne

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

SP Domagnano 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLWLWWLL

Tre Penne 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDDDLWWWWW

Head-to-head

SP Domagnano 0–2–4 Tre Penne (6 last)

Tre Penne3-1SP Domagnano
SP Domagnano1-2Tre Penne
Tre Penne0-0SP Domagnano
SP Domagnano2-2Tre Penne
Tre Penne3-0SP Domagnano
Tre Penne3-1SP Domagnano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SP Domagnano 1512 · Tre Penne 1611

	SP Domagnano	Draw	Tre Penne
Our model	16%	23%	60%
Market	17%	22%	61%

Estimated total (ours) 2.91 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tre Penne (rating 1512 vs 1611).
H2H favours Tre Penne: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SP Domagnano	Tre Penne
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2.1	1.7 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 1.1	1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.4	2.4 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0.2	5.1 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

15.25

X4.10

21.48

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)2.00

2 (-1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
18:08 +5’	5.25	4.10	1.48

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SP Domagnano 0–2–4 Tre Penne

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 San Marino Campionato	Tre Penne	3-1 HT 3-0	SP Domagnano
08/03/26 San Marino Campionato	SP Domagnano	1-2 HT 1-0	Tre Penne
08/11/25 San Marino Campionato	Tre Penne	0-0 HT 0-0	SP Domagnano
21/10/25 San Marino Cup	SP Domagnano	2-2 HT 1-2	Tre Penne
23/09/25 San Marino Cup	Tre Penne	3-0 HT 1-0	SP Domagnano
01/02/25 San Marino Campionato	Tre Penne	3-1 HT 1-1	SP Domagnano

Standings · San Marino Campionato

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SS Folgore/Falciano	4	4	0	0	10	1	12
2	Tre Penne	4	4	0	0	9	2	12
3	SS Virtus	4	3	1	0	6	2	10
4	Tre Fiori	4	3	0	1	14	5	9
5	SS Cosmos	4	2	1	1	9	4	7
6	La Fiorita	4	1	3	0	4	3	6
7	SP Domagnano	4	2	0	2	7	6	6
8	AC Libertas	4	1	2	1	4	5	5
9	FC Fiorentino	4	1	1	2	4	5	4
10	SP Cailungo	4	1	0	3	4	5	3
11	SS Murata	4	1	0	3	4	10	3
12	SS San Giovanni	4	1	0	3	4	10	3
13	Juvenes/Dogana	4	1	0	3	6	6	3
14	Pennarossa	4	1	0	3	7	16	3
15	San Marino Academy U22	4	0	2	2	1	5	2
16	SC Faetano	4	0	2	2	1	9	2

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SP Domagnano	Tre Penne
La Fiorita	1-2 L	0-1 L
SS San Giovanni	4-0 W	3-2 W
SP Cailungo	2-1 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SP Domagnano

LLWLWLWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	1-0	1-2	2	0	L
11/09	Tre Fiori San Marino Campionato	0-3	0-3	6	2	L
04/09	SS San Giovanni San Marino Campionato	3-0	4-0	0	0	W
28/08	SP Cailungo San Marino Campionato	1-1	2-1	4	1	W
16/05	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	0-3	1-3	8	0	L
12/05	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	2-0	2-1	0	8	W
09/05	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	0-1	1-2	5	5	L
05/05	SS Folgore/Falciano San Marino Campionato	2-0	3-1	5	4	W
02/05	SS Folgore/Falciano San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-1	1	3	L
25/04	SS Folgore/Falciano San Marino Campionato	2-3	3-7	3	1	L

Tre Penne

WDDDLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato	1-0	2-0	2	4	W
12/09	SP Cailungo San Marino Campionato	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
04/09	SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato	1-0	2-0	6	11	W
29/08	SS San Giovanni San Marino Campionato	2-1	3-2	3	5	W
16/05	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	3-0	3-1	7	0	W
12/05	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-1	5	8	L
09/05	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
06/05	SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	3	10	D
03/05	SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	8	5	D
26/04	SS San Giovanni San Marino Campionato	2-0	4-0	2	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SP Domagnano vs Tre Penne?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Tre Penne win (61%). Probabilities: SP Domagnano 17%, draw 23%, Tre Penne 61%.

How many goals are expected in SP Domagnano vs Tre Penne?

The model expects 2.91 goals (SP Domagnano 0.94 · Tre Penne 1.97), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in SP Domagnano vs Tre Penne?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.