Football · San Marino Campionato · 11/10, 15:00

Prediction: SS Cosmos vs Juvenes/Dogana

Team pages: SS Cosmos · Juvenes/Dogana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.17Total

SS Cosmos1.32

Juvenes/Dogana0.85

1X2

48% 28% 24%

SS Cosmos Draw Juvenes/Dogana

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

SS Cosmos 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LLWWDDDLWW

Juvenes/Dogana 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DDWDDLWLLL

Head-to-head

SS Cosmos 3–1–2 Juvenes/Dogana (6 last)

SS Cosmos0-1Juvenes/Dogana
Juvenes/Dogana1-0SS Cosmos
SS Cosmos0-0Juvenes/Dogana
Juvenes/Dogana1-3SS Cosmos
SS Cosmos2-1Juvenes/Dogana
Juvenes/Dogana0-4SS Cosmos

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SS Cosmos 1527 · Juvenes/Dogana 1476

	SS Cosmos	Draw	Juvenes/Dogana
Our model	46%	31%	23%
Market	49%	26%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.17 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SS Cosmos (rating 1527 vs 1476).
H2H favours SS Cosmos: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SS Cosmos	Juvenes/Dogana
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.8	1.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3	1.8 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.8 / 0.3	3.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.40

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
16:35 +8’	1.85	3.40	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SS Cosmos 3–1–2 Juvenes/Dogana

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/01/26 San Marino Campionato	SS Cosmos	0-1 HT 0-1	Juvenes/Dogana
13/09/25 San Marino Campionato	Juvenes/Dogana	1-0 HT 0-0	SS Cosmos
12/04/25 San Marino Campionato	SS Cosmos	0-0 HT 0-0	Juvenes/Dogana
15/12/24 San Marino Campionato	Juvenes/Dogana	1-3 HT 0-2	SS Cosmos
02/03/24 San Marino Campionato	SS Cosmos	2-1 HT 1-0	Juvenes/Dogana
12/11/23 San Marino Campionato	Juvenes/Dogana	0-4 HT 0-2	SS Cosmos

Standings · San Marino Campionato

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SS Folgore/Falciano	5	5	0	0	15	2	15
2	Tre Penne	4	4	0	0	9	2	12
3	SS Virtus	4	3	1	0	6	2	10
4	Tre Fiori	4	3	0	1	14	5	9
5	La Fiorita	5	2	3	0	7	3	9
6	AC Libertas	5	2	2	1	6	6	8
7	SS Cosmos	4	2	1	1	9	4	7
8	SP Domagnano	4	2	0	2	7	6	6
9	FC Fiorentino	4	1	1	2	4	5	4
10	SP Cailungo	5	1	0	4	5	7	3
11	SS Murata	5	1	0	4	4	13	3
12	SS San Giovanni	4	1	0	3	4	10	3
13	Juvenes/Dogana	4	1	0	3	6	6	3
14	Pennarossa	5	1	0	4	8	21	3
15	San Marino Academy U22	4	0	2	2	1	5	2
16	SC Faetano	4	0	2	2	1	9	2

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SS Cosmos	Juvenes/Dogana
SS Murata	2-0 W	5-2 W
Pennarossa	6-1 W	0-0 D
Tre Penne	0-2 L	0-2 L
AC Libertas	1-1 D	1-2 L
SC Faetano	2-0 W	4-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SS Cosmos

LLWWDDDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	SS Murata San Marino Campionato	0-0	2-0	7	3	W
13/09	Pennarossa San Marino Campionato	3-0	6-1	1	5	W
04/09	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-2	3	11	L
29/08	AC Libertas San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	3	7	D
06/05	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	4	10	D
03/05	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
29/04	Pennarossa San Marino Campionato	1-0	3-0	2	7	W
26/04	SC Faetano San Marino Campionato	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
19/04	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	1-3	1-3	1	0	L
12/04	Pennarossa San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-1	–	–	L

Juvenes/Dogana

DDWDDLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-2	5	4	L
13/09	SS Folgore/Falciano San Marino Campionato	1-1	1-2	2	7	L
05/09	AC Libertas San Marino Campionato	0-1	1-2	4	1	L
28/08	SC Faetano San Marino Campionato	1-0	4-0	8	2	W
06/05	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-2	4	1	L
03/05	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
29/04	AC Libertas San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	5	11	D
26/04	SS Murata San Marino Campionato	2-0	5-2	8	0	W
18/04	Pennarossa San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	4	10	D
12/04	SS Folgore/Falciano San Marino Campionato	2-0	2-2	4	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SS Cosmos vs Juvenes/Dogana?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SS Cosmos win (48%). Probabilities: SS Cosmos 48%, draw 28%, Juvenes/Dogana 24%.

How many goals are expected in SS Cosmos vs Juvenes/Dogana?

The model expects 2.17 goals (SS Cosmos 1.32 · Juvenes/Dogana 0.85), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in SS Cosmos vs Juvenes/Dogana?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.