Football · San Marino Campionato · 10/10, 15:00

Prediction: SS San Giovanni vs Tre Fiori

Team pages: SS San Giovanni · Tre Fiori

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.41Total

SS San Giovanni0.76

Tre Fiori2.65

1X2

8% 15% 77%

SS San Giovanni Draw Tre Fiori

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

0-2 12%

Recent form · 10 last

SS San Giovanni 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

DWLWLLLLWL

Tre Fiori 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWWDWWWL

Head-to-head

SS San Giovanni 1–1–4 Tre Fiori (6 last)

SS San Giovanni0-4Tre Fiori
Tre Fiori4-0SS San Giovanni
Tre Fiori1-1SS San Giovanni
SS San Giovanni1-2Tre Fiori
Tre Fiori1-4SS San Giovanni
SS San Giovanni0-2Tre Fiori

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SS San Giovanni 1424 · Tre Fiori 1526

	SS San Giovanni	Draw	Tre Fiori
Our model	8%	15%	77%
Market	8%	14%	78%

Estimated total (ours) 3.41 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tre Fiori (rating 1424 vs 1526).
H2H favours Tre Fiori: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 4.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SS San Giovanni	Tre Fiori
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.1	2.6 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.5	1.4 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/10/70%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 2.8	2 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0.1	2.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

111.00

X6.50

21.18

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2)1.95

2 (-2)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.77

Under 32.02

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	11.00 → 11.00	Bet365 11.00
X	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50
2	1.18 → 1.18	Bet365 1.18

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:34 +6’	11.00	6.50	1.18

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SS San Giovanni 1–1–4 Tre Fiori

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/01/26 San Marino Campionato	SS San Giovanni	0-4 HT 0-1	Tre Fiori
14/09/25 San Marino Campionato	Tre Fiori	4-0 HT 4-0	SS San Giovanni
13/05/25 San Marino Campionato	Tre Fiori	1-1 HT 0-0	SS San Giovanni
10/05/25 San Marino Campionato	SS San Giovanni	1-2 HT 0-0	Tre Fiori
26/04/25 San Marino Campionato	Tre Fiori	1-4 HT 0-0	SS San Giovanni
12/01/25 San Marino Campionato	SS San Giovanni	0-2 HT 0-1	Tre Fiori

Standings · San Marino Campionato

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SS Folgore/Falciano	4	4	0	0	10	1	12
2	SS Virtus	4	3	1	0	6	2	10
3	Tre Fiori	4	3	0	1	14	5	9
4	Tre Penne	3	3	0	0	7	2	9
5	SS Cosmos	4	2	1	1	9	4	7
6	La Fiorita	4	1	3	0	4	3	6
7	SP Domagnano	4	2	0	2	7	6	6
8	AC Libertas	4	1	2	1	4	5	5
9	FC Fiorentino	4	1	1	2	4	5	4
10	SS San Giovanni	3	1	0	2	4	7	3
11	SS Murata	4	1	0	3	4	10	3
12	Juvenes/Dogana	3	1	0	2	6	4	3
13	Pennarossa	4	1	0	3	7	16	3
14	San Marino Academy U22	4	0	2	2	1	5	2
15	SC Faetano	4	0	2	2	1	9	2
16	SP Cailungo	3	0	0	3	1	5	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SS San Giovanni	Tre Fiori
SS Murata	2-0 W	3-0 W
SP Domagnano	0-4 L	3-0 W
La Fiorita	0-3 L	0-0 D
SC Faetano	2-0 W	4-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Tre Fiori (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SS San Giovanni

DWLWLLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	SP Cailungo San Marino Campionato	0-2	0-3	4	2	L
12/09	SS Murata San Marino Campionato	2-0	2-0	3	3	W
04/09	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	0-3	0-4	0	0	L
29/08	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	1-2	2-3	0	5	L
26/04	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	0-2	0-4	1	5	L
18/04	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	0-2	0-2	1	0	L
11/04	San Marino Academy U22 San Marino Campionato	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
07/04	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	0-2	0-3	4	1	L
21/03	SC Faetano San Marino Campionato	0-0	2-0	9	2	W
15/03	SS Folgore/Falciano San Marino Campionato	1-2	2-2	–	–	D

Tre Fiori

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	1-1	2-3	2	3	L
11/09	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	3-0	3-0	3	2	W
04/09	SC Faetano San Marino Campionato	1-0	4-0	3	5	W
30/08	Pennarossa San Marino Campionato	1-1	5-2	4	3	W
26/04	Pennarossa San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	6	0	D
19/04	SC Faetano San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-0	9	3	W
12/04	AC Libertas San Marino Campionato	2-0	3-0	5	3	W
08/04	SS Murata San Marino Campionato	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
22/03	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	1	0	D
14/03	SS Virtus San Marino Campionato	4-1	4-1	2	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SS San Giovanni vs Tre Fiori?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Tre Fiori win (77%). Probabilities: SS San Giovanni 8%, draw 15%, Tre Fiori 77%.

How many goals are expected in SS San Giovanni vs Tre Fiori?

The model expects 3.41 goals (SS San Giovanni 0.76 · Tre Fiori 2.65), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in SS San Giovanni vs Tre Fiori?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.