Football · San Marino Campionato · 09/10, 21:15

Prediction: Pennarossa vs SS Folgore/Falciano

Team pages: Pennarossa · SS Folgore/Falciano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.25Total

Pennarossa0.91

SS Folgore/Falciano2.34

1X2

13% 19% 69%

Pennarossa Draw SS Folgore/Falciano

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

0-2 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Pennarossa 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWWDDLLLLW

SS Folgore/Falciano 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Pennarossa 0–1–5 SS Folgore/Falciano (6 last)

Pennarossa2-3SS Folgore/Falciano
SS Folgore/Falciano3-0Pennarossa
SS Folgore/Falciano2-2Pennarossa
Pennarossa0-3SS Folgore/Falciano
Pennarossa2-4SS Folgore/Falciano
SS Folgore/Falciano8-0Pennarossa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pennarossa 1474 · SS Folgore/Falciano 1600

	Pennarossa	Draw	SS Folgore/Falciano
Our model	12%	19%	68%
Market	13%	18%	69%

Estimated total (ours) 3.25 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SS Folgore/Falciano (rating 1474 vs 1600).
H2H favours SS Folgore/Falciano: 5-1-0.
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pennarossa	SS Folgore/Falciano
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.1	2.4 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	1.1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.7	3.4 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.3	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

17.00

X5.00

21.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.95

2 (-1.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	1.30 → 1.30	Bet365 1.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
16:03 +4’	7.00	5.00	1.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Pennarossa 0–1–5 SS Folgore/Falciano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/26 San Marino Campionato	Pennarossa	2-3 HT 0-1	SS Folgore/Falciano
25/10/25 San Marino Campionato	SS Folgore/Falciano	3-0 HT 2-0	Pennarossa
22/01/25 San Marino Campionato	SS Folgore/Falciano	2-2 HT 2-0	Pennarossa
14/09/24 San Marino Campionato	Pennarossa	0-3 HT 0-1	SS Folgore/Falciano
13/04/24 San Marino Campionato	Pennarossa	2-4 HT 1-1	SS Folgore/Falciano
07/01/24 San Marino Campionato	SS Folgore/Falciano	8-0 HT 2-0	Pennarossa

Standings · San Marino Campionato

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SS Folgore/Falciano	4	4	0	0	10	1	12
2	SS Virtus	4	3	1	0	6	2	10
3	Tre Fiori	4	3	0	1	14	5	9
4	Tre Penne	3	3	0	0	7	2	9
5	SS Cosmos	4	2	1	1	9	4	7
6	La Fiorita	4	1	3	0	4	3	6
7	SP Domagnano	4	2	0	2	7	6	6
8	AC Libertas	4	1	2	1	4	5	5
9	FC Fiorentino	4	1	1	2	4	5	4
10	SS San Giovanni	3	1	0	2	4	7	3
11	SS Murata	4	1	0	3	4	10	3
12	Juvenes/Dogana	3	1	0	2	6	4	3
13	Pennarossa	4	1	0	3	7	16	3
14	San Marino Academy U22	4	0	2	2	1	5	2
15	SC Faetano	4	0	2	2	1	9	2
16	SP Cailungo	3	0	0	3	1	5	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pennarossa	SS Folgore/Falciano
SS Cosmos	1-6 L	0-0 D
SS Murata	1-4 L	5-0 W
Juvenes/Dogana	0-0 D	2-1 W
SP Cailungo	2-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: SS Folgore/Falciano (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pennarossa

WWWDDLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	FC Fiorentino San Marino Campionato	0-0	3-1	8	9	W
13/09	SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato	0-3	1-6	5	5	L
06/09	SS Murata San Marino Campionato	1-2	1-4	7	4	L
30/08	Tre Fiori San Marino Campionato	1-1	2-5	5	3	L
29/04	SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-3	3	7	L
26/04	Tre Fiori San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	1	0	D
18/04	Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	4	10	D
12/04	SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
07/04	SP Cailungo San Marino Campionato	0-0	2-1	9	2	W
21/03	SS Murata San Marino Campionato	1-0	2-0	9	5	W

SS Folgore/Falciano

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	San Marino Academy U22 San Marino Campionato	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
13/09	Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato	1-1	2-1	6	7	W
05/09	SP Cailungo San Marino Campionato	1-0	1-0	9	3	W
28/08	SS Murata San Marino Campionato	3-0	5-0	5	3	W
05/05	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	0-2	1-3	6	4	L
02/05	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
25/04	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	3-2	7-3	1	1	W
19/04	San Marino Academy U22 San Marino Campionato	2-0	3-0	3	2	W
12/04	Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato	0-2	2-2	6	3	D
08/04	SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	14	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pennarossa vs SS Folgore/Falciano?

According to our model, the most likely result is an SS Folgore/Falciano win (69%). Probabilities: Pennarossa 13%, draw 19%, SS Folgore/Falciano 69%.

How many goals are expected in Pennarossa vs SS Folgore/Falciano?

The model expects 3.25 goals (Pennarossa 0.91 · SS Folgore/Falciano 2.34), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Pennarossa vs SS Folgore/Falciano?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.