Football · San Marino Campionato · 23/10, 21:15

Prediction: Pennarossa vs SS San Giovanni

Team pages: Pennarossa · SS San Giovanni

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

Pennarossa1.59

SS San Giovanni1.42

1X2

41% 26% 33%

Pennarossa Draw SS San Giovanni

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Pennarossa 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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SS San Giovanni 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Pennarossa 1–1–4 SS San Giovanni (6 last)

SS San Giovanni3-0Pennarossa
Pennarossa2-1SS San Giovanni
SS San Giovanni2-2Pennarossa
Pennarossa0-5SS San Giovanni
SS San Giovanni9-0Pennarossa
Pennarossa0-3SS San Giovanni

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pennarossa 1464 · SS San Giovanni 1433

	Pennarossa	Draw	SS San Giovanni
Our model	41%	26%	33%
Market	41%	26%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.02 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours SS San Giovanni: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pennarossa	SS San Giovanni
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.6	0.7 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.1	0.4 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.6	1.9 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.2	2.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.40

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
14:07 +3’	2.20	3.40	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Pennarossa 1–1–4 SS San Giovanni

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 San Marino Campionato	SS San Giovanni	3-0 HT 2-0	Pennarossa
18/10/25 San Marino Campionato	Pennarossa	2-1 HT 1-0	SS San Giovanni
02/03/25 San Marino Campionato	SS San Giovanni	2-2 HT 0-0	Pennarossa
02/11/24 San Marino Campionato	Pennarossa	0-5 HT 0-3	SS San Giovanni
06/04/24 San Marino Campionato	SS San Giovanni	9-0 HT 3-0	Pennarossa
16/12/23 San Marino Campionato	Pennarossa	0-3 HT 0-3	SS San Giovanni

Standings · San Marino Campionato

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SS Folgore/Falciano	5	5	0	0	15	2	15
2	Tre Penne	5	5	0	0	11	2	15
3	SS Virtus	5	4	1	0	11	2	13
4	Tre Fiori	5	4	0	1	15	5	12
5	SS Cosmos	5	3	1	1	10	4	10
6	La Fiorita	5	2	3	0	7	3	9
7	AC Libertas	5	2	2	1	6	6	8
8	FC Fiorentino	5	2	1	2	10	5	7
9	SP Domagnano	5	2	0	3	7	8	6
10	SP Cailungo	5	1	0	4	5	7	3
11	SS Murata	5	1	0	4	4	13	3
12	SS San Giovanni	5	1	0	4	4	11	3
13	Juvenes/Dogana	5	1	0	4	6	7	3
14	Pennarossa	5	1	0	4	8	21	3
15	San Marino Academy U22	5	0	2	3	1	10	2
16	SC Faetano	5	0	2	3	1	15	2

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pennarossa	SS San Giovanni
SS Murata	1-4 L	2-0 W
Tre Fiori	2-5 L	0-1 L
SP Cailungo	2-1 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: SS San Giovanni (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pennarossa

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	SS Folgore/Falciano San Marino Campionato	1-4	1-5	8	3	L
19/09	FC Fiorentino San Marino Campionato	0-0	3-1	8	9	W
13/09	SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato	0-3	1-6	5	5	L
06/09	SS Murata San Marino Campionato	1-2	1-4	7	4	L
30/08	Tre Fiori San Marino Campionato	1-1	2-5	5	3	L
29/04	SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato	0-1	0-3	3	7	L
26/04	Tre Fiori San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-1	1	0	D
18/04	Juvenes/Dogana San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-0	4	10	D
12/04	SS Cosmos San Marino Campionato	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
07/04	SP Cailungo San Marino Campionato	0-0	2-1	9	2	W

SS San Giovanni

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Tre Fiori San Marino Campionato	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
20/09	SP Cailungo San Marino Campionato	0-2	0-3	4	2	L
12/09	SS Murata San Marino Campionato	2-0	2-0	3	3	W
04/09	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	0-3	0-4	0	0	L
29/08	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	1-2	2-3	0	5	L
26/04	Tre Penne San Marino Campionato	0-2	0-4	1	5	L
18/04	SP Domagnano San Marino Campionato	0-2	0-2	1	0	L
11/04	San Marino Academy U22 San Marino Campionato	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
07/04	La Fiorita San Marino Campionato	0-2	0-3	4	1	L
21/03	SC Faetano San Marino Campionato	0-0	2-0	9	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pennarossa vs SS San Giovanni?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Pennarossa win (41%). Probabilities: Pennarossa 41%, draw 26%, SS San Giovanni 33%.

How many goals are expected in Pennarossa vs SS San Giovanni?

The model expects 3.02 goals (Pennarossa 1.59 · SS San Giovanni 1.42), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Pennarossa vs SS San Giovanni?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.